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Trey McBride signed a 4 year deal for $76 million dollars to become the highest paid TE ever and I was shocked. Not shocked that McBride got the contract he got, but shocked at how little tight ends are paid. To put in perspective, the $19 million average per year would rank 21st among WRs. As we talk about a lot on this blog though, average value and total value of a contract mean very little in the grand scheme of things. It’s all about total guaranteed money. In that sense, McBride got a record $43 million guaranteed, which would be 17th among WRs.

For both of those values, McBride is behind guys like Calvin Ridley. To put this in perspective, last season Ridley had 64 catches for 1,017 yards and 4 TDs in 17 games and McBride had 111 catches for 1,146 yards and 2 TDs in 16 games.

Why do I keep comparing TEs and WRs? Because guys who pretty good WRs make as much as star TEs and star WR blow TE salaries out of the water. And they shouldn’t…

While top level WRs tend to put up decently better numbers receiving than top level TEs, TEs provide much more than just receiving, while WRs do not. Truly great TEs provide help in the run blocking game as well as create more matchup nightmares than WRs. A guy like Rob Gronkowski is too fast for a LB to cover, but too big for a DB. How do you stop him? You need to direct multiple guys each play to try to slow him down. This may mean having a DE chip him and have a LB and DB double cover him. This frees up other guys to get open and leads to less guys available to pressure the QB. And if they are foolish enough to leave him 1 on 1, you feed your star TE and let him dominate the game. Star WRs can warrant double coverage or matchup mismatches, but it doesn’t tend to be as extensive or involve as many players as is the case with a star TE.

So if you are telling me I can pay a guy who will do what a star TE does $43 million guaranteed and $19 million per year over 4 years or a star WR $112 million guaranteed and $40.25 million per year over 4 years, I am taking the star TE every time. That frees up so much other money for me to build my team up to better contend for a Super Bowl.

Don’t just take my word for it. The Pats/Bucs with Gronk as their star TE went to 6 Super Bowls and won 4. The Chiefs with Kelce as their star TE have gone to 5 and won 3.

The value of return you get for TEs make having a star TE one of the best investments in all of sports.

The Pats have traded backup QB Joe Milton and a 7th rounder to the Cowboys for a 5th rounder.

This is not totally unexpected as there have been a lot of rumors about Milton being traded. The Pats get a little return on investment as they drafted Milton with a 7th round pick and now have used him and a future 7th to get a future 5th.

I saw someone make the point that if Milton didn’t play so well in the Bills game we wouldn’t have been able to trade him for a 5th. But also, if he didn’t play so well vs the Bills, we also would still have the 1st overall pick. So everything comes down to perspective.

LFG!!!

After weeks spent doing nothing substantial to address their need for more WRs, the Pats finally do something by signing Stefon Diggs. Despite being 31 and coming off an ACL injury, Diggs was producing much better than any Patriots wide reciever. In 8 games he had 47 catches, 496 yards recieving and 3 TDs. Over the full season only one Pats WR had more catches, only two had more yards, and none had more TDs.

Here’s the most intriguing stat for Diggs. CJ Stroud (in his 2nd year last year, just like Maye will be this year) had a passer rating of 104 and completion percentage of 73% when targeting Diggs. That’s what we’ll hope to see with Maye.

It’s also great to see that Maye pushed hard for Diggs and the team listened to what he had to say. That keeps him and the team hapy.

The deal may look too big financially at 3 years, $69 million. However, it’s only $26 million guaranteed, which is something I’m happy to pay for a guy who will instantly come in and be our WR1.

There are rumors about Diggs being a little bit of a diva. However, on the Pats he will be the go-to target and should get plenty of targets to keep him happy. And if he doesn’t end up liking it here, the Pats can likely get out of the deal after a year.

I think Diggs is hungry and has something to prove. I see this working out well.

It is always interesting to see where great players went to college. We always here how the Big 10 and SEC are the best conferences, but do they produce the best players? I looked at the top offensive QBs and skill players to see here they come from.

The tiers of colleges I am using:

Tier 1: SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame

Tier 2: ACC/Big 12

Tier 3: FBS Non-Power 4

Tier 4: FCS or below

QBS: My Top 12 QBs (refer to my QB tiers blog)

SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame: 7

ACC/Big 12: 3

FBS Non-Power 4: 1

FCS or below: 1

As you can see, the top QBs are spread out in terms of where they are coming from school wise. Yes the top tier produces more than others, but Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson (the last 3 MVPs) all aren’t from that tier. Overall, about half of the top 12 QBs in the league come from the top tier of schools

RBs: Players who ran for 1,000 yards or 10 TDs (also Christian McCaffrey): 18 players

SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame: 12

ACC/Big 12: 4

FBS Non-Power 4: 2

FCS or below: 0

12 of 18 players came from the top tier here.

WRs and TEs: Players who had for 1,000 yards receiving, 100 receptions, or 10 TDs (also DK Metcalf, Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, and Brandon Aiyuk)

SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame: 26

ACC/Big 12: 7

FBS Non-Power 4: 2

FCS or below: 1

Here we have 35 of the best WRs and TEs and 26 are from the top tier.

All told, about 75% of the top receivers and 67% of the RBs come from the top tier of schools. Meaning teams should want to look there when drafting skill players.

The Celtics sold for a valuation of $6.1 billion, the most ever for a North American sports team, to a group led by PE titan Bill Chisholm. Co-owners Wyc Grousbeck and Steve Pagliuca bought the team for $360 million in 2002, so they made an insane return on their investment. It is unfortunate to see such great owners sell the team, but Grousbeck will be the franchise CEO through the 2027-28 season, which will help with the transition.

One of the great things about the current owners is that they were willing to spend a ton, similar to the LA Dodgers owners. They have the best roster in the league and have guys under contract for the foreseeable future. The first test of the ownership group is how willing they are to keep the team together. You have to imagine if a group is willing to spend over $6 billion for a team, that they will fork over money to keep the team together.

Reports are also that the NBA was waiting to get serious about expansion until this sale, since it sets a new floor for NBA franchises. Similar to most team sales, the Celtics sold over the estimated price of $5.5 billion.

One of my favorite sports topics is relocation and expansion in the Big Four Sports Leagues. In this post, I break down cities that should get new teams.

MLB

I think the MLB will soon expand from 30 to 32 teams. There are many teams vying for a new team. I think 5 new cities should get teams, with 2 expansions and 3 relocations.

I think the 3 relocations will need to happen before expansion. The first team that should relocate is the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite having decent success, the Rays have had terrible attendance, even for playoff games. With the new stadium project in the Tampa area collapsing and Tropicana Stadium having its roof ripped off, Tampa needs to leave soon.

I think it makes sense for them to move to Nashville. There is already a lot of momentum for a new team to go to Nashville and be called the Nashville Stars. There also is rumors that the new Tennessee Titans stadium complex will have room for a new MLB stadium which puts it in a great location. Nashville is a good sports town and the Rays moving there solves a current issue while also keeping allowing them to stay in the AL East (for now).

I also think the Chicago White Sox should relocate. They are having tons of issues with finding a new stadium and with current attendance issues. There is already another team in Chicago and they would be a prime candidate to move. I think Salt Lake City would be their best option. It isn’t as big as other potential expansion cities, but it already has 2 other sports teams and is a sports crazy town. They also have a big group trying to bring the team there and have a lot of momentum to bring a team there.

A potential wild card move I could see if the LA Angels moving to Portland. Portland is a big sports city/area without and MLB team. The Angels are second citizens in their town and could be due for a move.

The two expansion cities I see for the MLB are Charlotte and Austin/San Antonio. Charlotte would give the MLB access to the Carolinas market, which is a pretty big baseball area. Austin/San Antonio is a massive dual market they could get into.

* This is all assuming that the Oakland As do end up moving to Las Vegas.

Based on the moves above, here are the new divisions I imagine once 32 teams are in the league:

American League

AL East

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

AL North

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

AL South

New Austin/San Antonio Team

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Colorado Rockies

AL West

LA Angels/ New Portland Team

Las Vegas Athletics

Seattle Mariners

New Salt Lake City Team (formerly Chicago White Sox)

National League

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates

NL North

Chicago Cubs

St Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

NL South

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Nashville Stars (formerly Tampa Bay Rays)

New Charlotte Team

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

NBA

I think the NBA should expand to Seattle and Las Vegas. Both cities have arenas that a new team could move into and both are great sports towns. An NBA team would also give both cities four sports teams and solidify them as massive sports towns. The new NHL teams in both cities have done well and can serve as a blueprint for a new NBA team.

I also think the Memphis Grizzlies could move to Nashville. Nashville is a better sports town and the Predators have an arena they could move into pretty easily.

The Grizz could move into the Eastern Conference and the new Seattle and Vegas teams would join the Western Conference.

NHL

There are multiple NHL cities that could potentially lose teams like the San Jose Sharks or Buffalo Sabres. However, with the recent NHL expansion/relocation, there aren’t many places for these teams to go. Hockey is mainly a northern sport, so I don’t think expanding to a southern city is smart. Potentially, a Canadian city like Quebec City or a northern US City like Milwaukee or Portland could be on the list. I think for right now, the NHL will sit pat and see how the new expansion/relocation pans out before making any more moves.

NFL

I don’t think there is any chance the league expands anytime soon. The current structure of 32 teams works so well that there is no real benefit to adding new teams. And while there are teams that don’t fit in great to their current cities, I don’t see any leaving soon. The Jaguars would be the main team that might have left. But they recently announced plans to do a $1.4 billion renovation of their current stadium so they aren’t moving any time soon. And if they did, where would they go?

London is not a realistic option. The travel that a team would have to go through being based in London is absolutely brutal and I don’t think any player or coach would be a fan of that. Plus, being in a foreign country throws in the complications of taxes, foreign exchange, and politics further complicating things for a team based there.

Outside of that, there are potential US cities that could field an NFL team. However, none are such great options that any team is likely dying to move there. You do not hear much about NFL teams looking to relocate because most, if not all, are happy enough with their current situations

Patriots Latest Moves

The Pats cut longtime center and captain David Andrews. They replaced him with former Vikings center Garrett Bradbury. It now looks like the middle and right side of the Pats line is solidified. The left side is still completely up for grabs. Hopefully, the Pats draft a left tackle and then one of their other recent picks can hold down the left guard spot.

I’m not sure if Bradbury will be much of a replacement. And without a doubt we will miss the leadership of David Andrews. Overall, there has been a big leadership drain the past couple years and the only two guys left who won a Super Bowl with the Pats are Ja’Whaun Bentley (1) and Joe Cardona (2).

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins signed massive deals to stay in Cincy. Chase signed a 4-year deal for $161 million ($112 million guaranteed) which is the largest non-QB contract ever. Higgins got a 4-year deal for up to $115 million, the highest for WR2 in NFL history.

I understand that this does not solve their defensive issues, but it is good to see that the Bengals will spend money to keep their best players in town. They can now focus on extending Trey Hendrickson and drafting a lot of defensive guys.

Derek Stingley Jr.

Stingley Jr signs a record deal for a cornerback with a 3-year, $90M extension ($89 million guaranteed). I don’t know if Stingley deserves to be the highest paid CB ever, however I think this is a great move. With Sauce Gardner looking for a deal, the smartest thing to do is just get the deal over with. Teams (like the Bengals) that wait always end up paying the price down the road. The Texans decided they wanted Stingley long term and now have him for the next 5 years. By the time the deal is over, if he keeps playing like last year, it will look like a bargain.

In addition to Harold Landry, The Pats added LB Robert Spillane, CB Carlton Davis, OT Morgan Moses, and DT Milton Williams.

Spillane gives us a much needed LB and Davis gives us a good CB2. Morgan Moses helps bolster offensive tackle and protect Drake Maye. DT Milton Williams is a big splash signing for us and will immediately improve our D-Line.

Money wise, we overpaid a little for the guys we got, but they were positions of need and we had the money to spend, so no harm.

The focus on defense leads me to assume we are going big on offense in the draft.

Other Signings

It’s sad the Pats missed out on WR Chris Godwin, but he should thrive back in Tampa.

Sam Darnold goes to the Seahawks which is surprising given the recent moves the Seahwaks have made.

The Jets sign Justin Fields for a 2 year, $40 million deal. I think it’s a great signing for the Jets and he could be another Sam Darnold if all goes well.

The Commanders keep going all in, trading for great LT Laremy Tunsil and a 2025 fourth round pick in exchange for a third and seventh round pick in 2025 and a second and fourth round pick in 2026. This only helps them continue to grow and I love the aggressiveness.

The Bills bring in Joey Bosa, which is a great signing and gives them a veteran edge rusher who can get to the quarterback.

With free agency coming up, here are some guys the Pats should consider going after. Free agency tends to have a few stud players and some solid veteran guys who can fill gaps. The tricky part is not overpaying guys who are too old or not that good.

Chris Godwin, WR

Godwin is an All-Pro wide receiver who was having a great year until being hurt this past season. Despite, coming off an injury, I think he’s the best player in this free agency group. The Pats should give him a deal around 3 years, $75 million for $50 million guaranteed. He would instantly be our WR1 and a huge upgrade, who still has some great years left.

Khalil Mack and/or Joey Bosa, Edge

The Pats should sign one or both to a one year, mostly guaranteed deal to help bolster up their defense. They are good players who can provide the Pats some pass rushing help this year. The Pats should mainly focus on offense in this draft, so some one year defensive rentals are needed.

Milton Williams, DT

I am weary of overpaying for guys who get the “Super Bowl Boost” (aka they help their team win a Super Bowl and cash in the next year in free agency.) In this case and the player below, he is a young guy who is worth taking the risk on with all the money we have.

Josh Sweat, Edge

Sweat is a little older than Williams, but is more of a pass rushing threat than Williams. He would be a guy we could build around similar to Matthew Judon a few years ago.

DJ Reed, CB

Reed would give us a quality 2nd corner opposite Christian Gonzalez and help bolster our secondary and pass defense.

The PE train keeps on rolling for the NFL.

Rumors are that the 49ers and Giants will be selling 10% of their teams and both will likely break the valuation record for an NFL team set by the Eagles in December. I’m guessing they will sell to private equity firms being that they are based in areas with close proximity to PE firms.

Another team that I am guessing may take private equity money soon is the Cincinnati Bengals. Why? They have one of the “poorest” owners in the league worth only $925 million dollars and the organization is notoriously cheap. They usually do not guarantee money for contracts outside of the first year (Joe Burrow being an exception). However, they have said that they want to resign Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson to big deals.

A quick detail about NFL contracts is that all guaranteed money is paid up front or put in escrow at the time the deal is signed. When Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million extension a couple years ago, the deal included a whopping $219 million in total guarantees. That means the Bengals owner needed $219 million in cash on hand per league rules. That is about 25% of his net worth. The team had to sign away naming rights to their stadium in order to finance the deal.

If the Bengals resign all 3 of the above guys, that could be another $150 to $200 million in cash needed and about $400 million just to those three and Burrow. Forbes did rank the Brown ownership family of having $3.9 billion total, so they could likely pitch in as a whole family to pay for it. However, if that doesn’t happen then the team will probably sell a stake to a PE firm for some instant cash.

CNBC ranked the Bengals as the least valuable franchise, but they are still worth $5.25 billion. Teams also tend to sell at valuations higher than their stated value, so the Brown family could likely get about $550 million for selling a 10% stake, which would go a long way towards helping pay for the contracts and keeping the Bengals core together.

Moving forward, outside of a team building a new stadium or completing renovations, I think teams that have to pay massive contracts are the next most likely candidates to take PE money.