Category: Sports Business

Devon Witherspoon signed a four-year, $132 million contract extension with $101 million guaranteed. This is big for Patriots fans, as there was speculation that Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez were waiting on each other to sign. Whoever signed first was going to ink a record-breaking deal for a cornerback, and whoever signed second would likely top that.

Look for Gonzo to sign a four-year deal soon worth $134-$140 million, with $102-$105 million guaranteed.

This offseason is evidence of why you want to sign star players as early as possible. With a first-round star player like Gonzo, we have him signed for one more year of his rookie deal plus a fifth-year option. A four-year extension puts him under contract for six years, and the team can spread out his signing bonus over the next five seasons.

This offseason, three cornerback contracts have already been record-setting. Trent McDuffie, Denzel Ward, and Witherspoon have all broken the mark for highest APY, while McDuffie and Witherspoon have each set the record for most guaranteed money.

The Pats and Gonzalez are going to set the market again. The good news is that in future years, CBs will get more expensive and we’ll be happy we did not wait to re-sign Gonzo.

It usually is a good idea to give star players star contracts. Gonzalez absolutely deserves this deal, since he is one of the best defensive players in the league. Teams run into issues when they give solid players star contracts. The NFL is about economics. It’s not just who you sign, but how much you sign them for. I hope that is something the Pats keep in mind.

This is one of my favorite blogs to write all year. Based on Sportico’s NFL valuations, the total value of all NFL teams combined is a hair under $300 billion dollars. If the NFL were publicly traded, that would make it the 42nd most valuable public company in the country – ahead of IBM, Verizon, and Disney.

Truth be told, this is still wayyyyyyyy under what the actual value of the NFL would be when you factor in the league office and the league-wide assets like television contracts.

The Seattle Seahawks were recently sold for $9.6 billion, a record for an NFL franchise and the second-highest price ever paid for a professional sports team.

Below is how CNBC, Forbes, and Sportico most recently valued the Seahawks in their annual franchise rankings:

• CNBC: 19th most valuable team at $7 billion
• Forbes: 14th most valuable team at $6.7 billion
• Sportico: 14th most valuable team at $6.6 billion

As we’ve seen with other sports teams, the price a new owner actually pays for a franchise usually far exceeds the “book value” due to many factors.

First off, there are only 32 NFL franchises and they don’t come up for sale often. If you want to join the club, you need to pay up. In the Seahawks’ case, the buyer is a West Coast technology billionaire and his family. The opportunity to buy a premier West Coast NFL team that is close to home is rare.

Another big driver is the guaranteed hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue that teams share every year, mainly from the TV contracts in place. Each team earned $432 million in national NFL revenue in 2024. This does not include the individual revenue that teams made on their own like concessions, parking, and team sponsorships. In 2024, the Seahawks made $624-$638 million in total revenue according to Forbes and CNBC. Luckily for NFL owners, the NFL can opt out of its current TV deal after the 2029 season and make even more money from new TV deals, which will continue to pit legacy networks like FOX and CBS versus streaming and tech giants like Netflix and Amazon. Not only is the NFL currently raking in money, but it looks like it will continue to do so and team valuations will keep going up.

Lastly, in an era dominated by AI and other technology trends, the NFL – and sports in general – remains a reliable safe haven. People genuinely love their NFL teams. Fans will continue to watch games, buy jerseys, and follow stars like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Beyond that, the NFL is a uniting force for fans from across the country and the globe.

All of these factors push the true value of NFL teams to a much higher number than standard valuations can reflect.

Managing the NFL salary cap is a complex puzzle. Successful franchises like the Eagles and Rams are praised for their ability to “manipulate” the cap, while less aggressive teams, such as the Bengals, are often criticized for failing to take advantage of these tools. In this post, we’ll break down the main methods teams use to maximize their financial flexibility and stay competitive.

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1. Contract Incentives

One of the most common ways teams manage the salary cap is through contract incentives. Incentives come in two categories:

• Likely To Be Earned (LTBE)
• Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE)

The NFL determines these categories based solely on a player’s prior-year performance, regardless of circumstances like injuries.

Example:

• Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,140 yards last season. Let’s say theoretically his cap hit is $10 million this year.
• If the Eagles give him a $5 million incentive for reaching 1,100 yards next year, that incentive is LTBE because he surpassed that mark last year. His cap hit would immediately include the $5 million, totaling $15 million. If he hits the mark then all is well. If he doesn’t, the team gets $5 million credited to their cap space next year.
• If the incentive is set at 1,200 yards (which he didn’t hit last year), it is NLTBE, meaning the cap hit this season stays at $10 million. If he hits 1,200 yards, the $5 million counts against next year’s cap instead. If he doesn’t hit the mark then all is well.

This allows teams to manage when cap hits occur, creating flexibility between seasons.

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2. Contract Restructures

Teams often restructure contracts to push cap hits into future seasons. Here’s how it works:

• A player has a $20 million salary.
• The team converts $18 million of that into a signing bonus and leaves $2 million as base salary.
• If he has three years left on his deal, the $18 million bonus is prorated over those years: $6 million per year.

Result:

• Original cap hit: $20 million
• New cap hit: $2 million (base) + $6 million (bonus) = $8 million
• Additional $6 million cap hit the next two year

The player typically prefers this since they get most of the money upfront as a lump sum. Teams can spread out the bonus over a maximum of 5 years.

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3. Void Years

When a player is in the final year of his contract, teams can still spread out bonuses by adding “void years.” These are fake contract years used purely for cap accounting.

Example:

• Player has 1 year left with a $20 million salary.
• The team converts $18 million of that into a signing bonus and leaves $2 million as base salary.
• Team adds 2 void years.
• The $18 million bonus is spread over 3 years ($6M each), reducing the immediate cap hit to $8 million this year: $2 million (base) + $6 million (bonus) = $8 million

When the contract ends, the remaining bonus owed in the void years becomes dead money against the cap immediately. Even with void years, teams can still spread out the bonus over a maximum of 5 years.

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4. Post-June 1 Designation

Cutting or trading a player after June 1 allows teams to split dead money over two seasons:

• Pre-June 1: Entire remaining bonus a team owes a player hits that season’s cap immediately as dead money.
• Post-June 1: Current year’s bonus counts this season, while the rest is deferred to the following year.

This approach gives teams short-term cap relief, which is especially useful for contending teams.

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5. Cap Rollover

Cap space can also roll over to the following year:

• If a team finishes $40 million under the cap, that amount can be added to next year’s spending limit.
• Teams must still spend at least 89% of the cap over a four-year period to prevent abuse.

This strategy is ideal for struggling franchises that want to save money for future free-agent spending sprees.

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The Big Picture

Salary cap manipulation is a balancing act. Successful teams push cap charges into the future to maximize their current rosters, but eventually, dead money catches up.

Teams need to be more willing to trade their star players, especially if the team in question is going nowhere. On Tuesday’s Podcast I talked about what the Cowboys have already gotten as a direct result of the Micah Parsons Trade:

• Kenny Clark – IDL
• Quinnen Williams – IDL
• Malachi Lawrence – Edge

And then two other players the Cowboys have gotten that they may not have had the draft pick or cap space to get had they kept Micah:

• Caleb Downs – Safety
• Rashan Gary – Edge

Trading one player has helped them get a good IDL, a great IDL, and a good Edge rusher who are known commodities. Downs and Lawrence are rookies so they are TBD, but Downs may be the best player from the 2026 Draft. And Lawrence joins a stacked defensive line where he will have time to develop as a first round pick.

All in all, the Cowboys will absolutely take those five players over just Micah Parsons. It’s a lesson for all front offices to prioritize getting as many good players as possible, rather than a few great ones.

Another recent trade that illustrates this is the Matthew Stafford – Jared Goff trade. This has been a rare win-win trade. The Rams got their QB and won a Super Bowl while still being contenders.

The Lions were likely going nowhere with Stafford and got their own Franchise QB, who was much younger. They were also able to build their roster with the following players as a direct result of the trade:

• Jahmyr Gibbs – RB
• Sam LaPorta – TE
• Jameson Williams – WR

In addition, the Lions drafted a whole slew of great young players in the subsequent drafts after the trade, which they may not have gotten if not for the trade.

The Lions will be better in the long term with Goff, Gibbs, LaPorta, and Williams than they would be with just Stafford.

A final one to mention. The Chiefs traded WR Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. The Chiefs proceeded to win back to back Super Bowls and make a third in a row. As a result of the trade, the Chiefs got:

• Trent McDuffie – CB
• Rashee Rice – WR

McDuffie was one of the best players for the Chiefs on all three of those Super Bowl winning/appearing teams. The Chiefs just traded him for multiple picks, including a very talented first round DT from Clemson named Peter Woods, who could be a star for the next decade.

Rice played a big role in the 2023 Super Bowl victory and is the best WR on the team right now.

While getting rid of Hill, they also got addition by subtraction. Not only did they save a ton of cap room, but Hill has had multiple off-the-field incidents that the Chiefs no longer have to deal with.

Don’t be afraid to trade your stars.

Edge rushers are overvalued. Don’t get me wrong, they are important to an NFL team, but a bad value position when you look at how much teams win with the highest paid edge rushers.

Edge rusher is the flashy defensive position that racks up gaudy stats and commands high salaries. But does that contribute to winning?

Of the past ten Super Bowl Champions, just 2 had an edge rusher in the top ten in cap hit for their position. 6 teams didn’t even have a player in the top 20.

Team	Highest Cap Hit Rank of Edge Rusher On The Team
2025 Seattle Seahawks	18th
2024 Philadelphia Eagles	21st
2023 Kansas City Chiefs	33rd
2022 Kansas City Chiefs	6th
2021 Los Angles Rams	24th
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9th
2019 Kansas City Chiefs	34th
2018 New England Patriots	44th
2017 Philadelphia Eagles	16th
2016 New England Patriots	57th

Paying star edge makes it hard to fill other positions with quality players. The approach of building a strong, well-rounded defense rather than focusing on a single high-paid edge rusher has proven successful. While drafting a great edge rusher can be beneficial, it’s not necessary to sacrifice significant capital to draft, sign, or trade for a star edge rusher. Teams should aim to find solid, reliable players who can contribute without breaking the bank.

The NFL is making significant strides in its global expansion. In the 2024 season, the NFL played five international games, including their first game in Brazil. This momentum continued in 2025, as the league had seven games, including its first games in Ireland and Spain. Looking ahead to 2026, the NFL has confirmed nine games. New locations for these international games are Australia and France, as well as a return to Mexico.

Goodell has expressed a vision of hosting 16 international games annually within the next five years, a move that could significantly boost the NFL’s revenue. This expansion is not only beneficial for the league’s financial health but also for fans in the United States. The introduction of more international games could lead to the creation of a new TV package, with standalone times for these games. This would not only increase the NFL’s revenue but also potentially raise the salary cap, allowing teams to pay players more and attract higher-quality talent.

The NFL’s strategy to expand internationally is a smart move, given the sport’s entertainment value and its suitability for television. Since it is mainly an American sport, it also has so much room to grow abroad.

The potential for an 18 game season, with each team playing one game internationally, would ensure that fans in the U.S. won’t lose any games, maintaining the current 17-game US schedule, while adding an international game.

The NFL’s financial success is evident in the rising salary cap, which is expected to exceed $300 million for the first time this year, marking a $20 million increase from the previous year and a nearly $100 million rise since 2022. Since 2016, the salary cap has nearly doubled, reflecting the league’s ability to generate substantial revenue through TV deals and other ventures. This financial growth underscores the NFL’s prowess in business and its ongoing efforts to expand its reach and influence in the world.

We hear a lot about how much you can pay QBs and still win Super Bowls. I decided to run some analysis on Super Bowl Winning QBs and their Cap Hit % in their Super Bowl Year.

A few things to note:

1. Data from 2011-2025 is via Spotrac and data from 1994-2010 is via Over The Cap (two great websites sports nerds like myself can find contract details)
2. There was no Salary Cap for the 2010 season. I used the salary cap from 2009 for the Cap Hit % calculation
3. For 2017 and 2000, there were 2 QBs for those teams that played significant roles in their team’s Super Bowl run. I combined the 2 QBs cap hits in both of those scenarios.
4. I was surprised to find that starting in 2010, contract data could be… spotty. For Brad Johnson in 2002 and Trent Dilfer and Tony Banks in 2000, I used the average yearly salary from their contracts. It is likely not their exact Cap Hits, but for the purpose of this exercise, it is good enough.

Season	QB	Cap Hit %
2025	Sam Darnold	4.3%
2024	Jalen Hurts	5.3%
2023	Patrick Mahomes	16.5%
2022	Patrick Mahomes	17.1%
2021	Matthew Stafford	11%
2020	Tom Brady	12.6%
2019	Patrick Mahomes	2.4%
2018	Tom Brady	12.4%
2017	Carson Wentz + Nick Foles	4.7%
2016	Tom Brady	8.9%
2015	Peyton Manning	12.2%
2014	Tom Brady	11.1%
2013	Russell Wilson	0.6%
2012	Joe Flacco	6.6%
2011	Eli Manning	11.8%
2010	Aaron Rodgers	5.1%
2009	Drew Brees	8.4%
2008	Ben Roethlisberger	6.9%
2007	Eli Manning	9.2%
2006	Peyton Manning	10.4%
2005	Ben Roethlisberger	4.9%
2004	Tom Brady	6.3%
2003	Tom Brady	4.4%
2002	Brad Johnson	7.9%
2001	Tom Brady	0.5%
2000	Trent Dilfer + Tony Banks	9%
1999	Kurt Warner	1.4%
1998	John Elway	4.9%
1997	John Elway	5%
1996	Brett Favre	10.2%
1995	Troy Aikman	6.7%
1994	Steve Young	13.1%
Average Cap Hit %		7.87%
Median Cap Hit %		7.40%

Obviously, an ideal scenario is a Superstar QB on a team friendly contract. That rarely happens. As you can see with Patrick Mahomes’ last two Super Bowls, you can pay a QB a lot and still win. However, that QB needs to be ELITE and your front office needs to draft amazingly to fill the team with cheap, young talent.

Moral of the story is don’t pay QBs massive contracts unless they are a player you think can go to the Hall of Fame. At 7.9%, Brad Johnson has the highest cap % for a Super Bowl winning QB who is not a Hall of Famer or a likely Hall of Famer (Dilfer and Banks combined to be 9%, but neither was individually above 7.9%).

Teams are better off taking a chance on a Sam Darnold type player or drafting a new QB than overpaying a Tua or Kyler type player. The Panthers and Texans should keep that in mind this offseason.