Divisional Round Reaction

(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills

This was as entertaining as we thought it would be. I feel like both teams played great but couldn’t put it away. It ends as it always does though, with the Chiefs moving to the AFC Championship. For the Bills, they are now 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs during the Mahomes – Allen era. They are super talented but keep just missing out.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 0-1 (40-17 Overall)

Spread: 0-1 (40-16-1)

O/U: 1-0 (31-25-1)

Divisional Round Preview

(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills

This is a game that means so much to Buffalo. Despite being 3-1 vs the Chiefs in the regular season during the Josh Allen – Patrick Mahomes era, the Bills are 0-2 vs the Chiefs in the playoffs. This is the first time they get to play the Chiefs at home in the playoffs and it should give them an extra boost. The Chiefs though, have a playoff aura around them and are used to bad weather. It’s crazy to think that Mahomes has made the playoffs six times and only lost to Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow. I think Josh Allen adds his name to that list this week and the Bills win, cover (-2.5), and the over (45.5) hits.

Playoff Prediction

My playoff predictions are listed below. My predicted winners are bolded for each game.

Wild Card Round

AFC

2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers

3 Kansas City Chiefs vs 6 Miami Dolphins

4 Houston Texans vs 5 Cleveland Browns

NFC

2 Dallas Cowboys vs 7 Green Bay Packers

3 Detroit Lions vs 6 LA Rams

4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles

Divisional Round

AFC

1 Baltimore Ravens vs 5 Cleveland Browns

2 Buffalo Bills vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs

NFC

1 San Francisco 49ers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles

2 Dallas Cowboys vs 3 Detroit Lions

Conference Championships

AFC

1 Baltimore Ravens vs 2 Buffalo Bills

NFC

1 San Francisco 49ers vs 2 Dallas Cowboys

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl Winner

San Francisco 49ers

Patriots Future

Coach/GM

With Bill gone, the biggest question was who will replace him as head coach and GM. We now know that it’s Jerod Mayo as the HC. I loved Mayo as a player and from what everyone is saying, it seems like he’s a great coach and a guy who players will love playing for. My only apprehension is that he is a defensive guy and in today’s NFL, offense is key – especially for the Pats who have a terrible offense and need to fix it. I think it’s time to cut bait with Bill O’Brien and to try to bring Josh McDaniel’s back as the Pats OC. He is a great OC and can ideally be the Pats long-term OC as he likely won’t get another head coaching job.

Ideally their new GM will come from an organization that has a history of drafting quality offensive talent like 49ers Assistant GM Adam Peters. We need to revamp the front office and bring in fresh ideas on how to draft offensive skill players.

Roster:

Their offense is absolutely terrible. They ranked last in points scored and 28th in yards. This is the main aspect of the team that needs a complete overhaul.

The most obvious part of the rebuild is that the Pats really need to draft a QB with their first round pick because no QB on the Pats is the answer right now. Mac Jones has not been in a good situation the past two years, with some inept offensive coaching and a lack of weapons, but he still needs to be cut or traded. He has a terrible arm, is not athletic, and has awful body language. Bailey Zappe is a solid backup to have, but not a starter.

The 3 pick is a tough situation to be in, though. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will likely be off the board. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., and JJ McCarthy all have some red flags and 3 seems too high to take any of those guys.

Ideally the Pats would trade up to 1 or 2 to get Williams or Maye. If not, I would hope they would trade back a couple picks and draft the third best QB in a better value spot, like 5 or 6. If neither of those options are possible, I wouldn’t hate drafting a guaranteed STUD like WR Marvin Harrison Jr or TE Brock Bowers, either at #3 or trading back a couple picks and then selecting one.

Bottom line is the number 3 draft pick ideally needs to turn into our franchise QB, but at minimum needs to lead to a bona fide star who will be a pillar of the franchise for the next decade. I’m talking a Hall of Fame level player. This draft is stacked, it is inexcusable to get anything less.

Running back is in a solid place with Rhamondre Stevenson having one year left and Eziekiel Elliot potentially returning on a one year deal. They should draft another RB in the mid rounds this year.

The Pats have the worst WR room in the entire league and they need a legitimate number 1 and number 2 receiver. Demario Douglas was solid with 548 yards, but isn’t much more than a #3 WR. Kendrick Bourne was on pace for 863 yards before getting injured, but he will be 29 next year and is probably not much better than a #3 option too. They should resign Bourne if the money is right, but should not feel bad about walking away. Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster sucked this year and we should move on from them. Tyquan Thornton looks like a huge bust, but should be given one more chance due to his speed. A WR should be drafted with one of their first 2 picks. They should also use their $74.2 million in cap space to get a great free agent WR like Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, or Michael Pittman Jr. I’m fine overpaying for one of those guys because it’s such an important position and a huge need.

At TE Hunter Henry is a solid option, who they should resign. Mike Gesicki is bad and they should let him walk. They should also look for another TE in the mid rounds of the draft.

Their offensive line struggled this year, a lot of it due to injury. They have some solid pieces in Cole Strange, Michael Onwenu, Trent Brown, and David Andrews. They should resign Onwenu and Brown, look to draft some new lineman, and maybe sign LT Tyron Smith, if he’s available.

All things considered, their defense was amazing this year. They ranked 17th in points against (in large part due to the offense turning over the ball in bad field position so many times) and 6th in yards, despite losing their two best players early in the year. S Kyle Dugger, DL Christian Baremore, LB Juwan Bentley, CB Christian Gonzalez, EDGE Matthew Judon, and S Jabril Peppers provide a solid nucleus. Dugger is a free agent and they should sign him if the money is right. If not, losing a safety is not a huge deal. Judon will likely want a new deal. Even coming off an injury, I’d be happy to sign him to a highly paid two year deal since he’s been our best player the last three years. There are some game changing free agents potentially available in DT Chris Jones, EDGE Josh Allen, EDGE Brian Burns, DT Justin Madubuike, EDGE Daniel Hunter, and LB Patrick Queen. I know not all of the guys will end up being free agents, but if they are, go try to get some of them.

Special Teams was not good this year. K Chad Ryland stinks and hit 62.5% of field goals. He was a complete waste of a 4th round pick, but you probably have to give him another chance. Returner Marcus Jones should be back next year. With ST Matthew Slater leaving, someone will have to fill that void.

The Pats have potential to be respectable next year and great from then on out if things go their way this offseason. They had 8 losses by one possession, 3 of which occurred with the defense allowing 10 points or fewer. Whoever replaces Bill as GM needs to get a new QB and some offensive weapons. They also need to spend aggressively in free agency, with some potential great players available. With Bill and Slater leaving, they also need to find their new identity next year. New leaders need to step up and lead the Pats to a new Golden Age.

End of Regular Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform in the postseason (if applicable) and next year.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

He had his worst season as a pro this year and still led his team to the AFC West title, won 11 games, and threw for 27 TDs. He would be the consensus pick if you were starting an NFL team right now and is dangerous in the postseason.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow had a tough year, first dealing with a nagging calf injury that hampered him the first 4 games, then going on IR after the 10th game of the year. During the 5.5 games he was healthy, he threw for 13 TDs and showed how good he is when healthy.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the modern day Brett Favre. He is an absurd athlete who routinely makes jaw dropping plays. He will also go rouge every now and then and make you ask yourself what the hell he is doing. His 173 total TDs the past 4 years, make up for those mistakes.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and will be the league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to prove himself in the playoffs, but if he does, he will move up this list.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is insanely talented, but cannot win. I know he’s had horrible coaching his first 4 years, but the hope now is that he can get a coach who knows what they’re doing and starting winning big games. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but a great postseason run will launch him up this list.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.

On the Bubble:

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited. We’ll see how he plays in the playoffs.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I still am a Russ believer. He played well this year despite the fact that he did not have that much talent around him. I think Sean Payton scapegoating him for all of Denver’s woes is laughable. He may not be at his peak anymore, but is still a good starting quarterback.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.

Week 15 Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) @ New England Patriots (3-10)

I can smell a blowout brewing. The Chiefs are absolutely pissed off from last week’s game, have never lost three in a row with Mahomes, and their season is teetering on the edge of going downhill. With the worst team in the AFC across from them, I think the Chiefs blowout the Pats, cover (-7.5), and the over (37) hits.

Side note: the news about Bill already being gone come season end is sad to hear, no matter how bad they have been. I’m not sure if it’s true, but regardless, it probably won’t help the beatdown Pat’s morale.

Dallas Cowboys (10-3) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6)

The best matchup of the weekend features the leading MVP candidate… and Josh Allen. The Cowboys know they need to win all of their remaining games to have a shot at the 1 seed and the division. The Bills are coming off a crazy game and also need to win out to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. Don’t count the Bills out from winning the division either. They already beat Miami head to head, play them again, and have an easier remaining schedule. I think the Bills win, cover (-2), and the over (50.5) hits.

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)

Two of the AFC’s best teams square off in a game with big divisional and conference implications. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3), and the over (42.5) hits.

Midseason Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs right now. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead both the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform the rest of this year. Only active QBs are included (i.e. Aaron Rodgers was not considered).

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

He has not looked like his usual self, but is still playing good football. I expect him to only get better and kick it into full gear by the time the playoffs start.

2. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert has once again been great despite lackluster coaching. He will need to continue to play this way if the Chargers have a shot at making the playoffs.

3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow was not healthy the first four games this year and it showed with just 2 TDs. The past 4 games, he has been healthy and showed why he is one of the best QBs in the league with 10 TDs.

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the most physically gifted QB on this list and routinely makes jaw dropping plays. His one downside is he will throw awful interceptions from time to time that make you question his judgement.

5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts has continued to show he is one of the best QBs in the league this season. His play the past 3 games has been spectacular, as he has put up 10 total TDs in that span and should continue to play this way for the remainder of the year.

6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar has been playing his best football since his MVP season in 2019 and the Ravens are buzzing. If he stays healthy and the Ravens continue to win, he could win MVP again this year.

7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence and the Jags have looked shaky on offense at times this year. Despite that, his talent is evident and he should improve the remainder of the year.

8. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

A QB always bears some responsibility when his team is not playing well, but Russ is getting way too much hate. Everyone seems to just assume the Denver roster is filled with good players – it isn’t. Russ has played well despite everything going on around him. Talk of him being the main problem there is ridiculous.

9. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tua is doing a great job of getting the ball to the speedsters around him and he and the Miami offense are putting up big numbers.

10. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

What a comeback story. Goff was cast aside by the Rams and just looked like a bridge QB for a rebuilding Lions team. Now he looks like a legitimate franchise QB again for a great Lions team.

On the Bubble:

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

He still needs to be carried by a great team to be effective and has not been the main reason his team is winning.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

I did not expect Stroud to be this good, much less this soon. He is playing great football and has led a team that had 3 wins last year to 4 wins already. If he keeps this up he, will crack the top 10 by end of year.

NFL Week 9 Prediction

Miami Dolphins (6-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)

The top two seeds in the AFC face off in a huge matchup in Germany. The Dolphins have played well this year, but are 0-2 vs teams that have winning records. The Chiefs have only lost twice in a row three times ever in Mahomes’s career and will be motivated coming off a loss to the Broncos. The Chiefs will win, cover (-1.5), and the over (50.5) hits.

Washington Commanders (3-5) @ New England Patriots (2-6)

The Commander basically announced to the world that they are giving up on the year after trading away two great players who accounted for nearly half of the team’s sacks. While their morale may be low, the Pats probably feel even worse as injuries and poor play have made this a year from hell. The Commanders are still better than the Pats and I think they win, cover (+3), and the under (40.5) hits.

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)

The Cowboys Cycle continues as they demolished the Rams last week. I think the Eagles have a lot of room to improve, and that they will win, cover (-3), and the under (46) hits.

Buffalo Bills (5-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)

The Bengals announced resoundingly that they were back last week vs the 49ers. The Bills have had a weird last 4 weeks, but are being written off more than they should. I think the Bills end up catching fire at the end of the season, but not starting this week. I think the Bengals win, cover (-2), and the over (49.5) hits.

NFL Week 9 Reaction

Miami Dolphins (6-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

The Chiefs win a big game that could have important implications for home field in the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs don’t always look pretty but they keep finding a way to win. The Dolphins fall to 0-3 vs teams with winning records.

Washington Commanders (4-5) @ New England Patriots (2-7)

The Commanders stay alive in the playoff race and the Pats stay alive in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

Sam Howell looks like a potential franchise QB. He makes mistakes, but is basically still a rookie and has a spark to him.

Dallas Cowboys (5-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)

A very entertaining game where both teams nearly blew it. It ends with the better team winning.

Buffalo Bills (5-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

The Bills and Bengals are in 3rd and 4th places, respectively, in their division but I still feel like they a better suited to make a playoff run then every other team in their division. The Bengals have been back to their usual selves and I think their good play continues. The Bills have struggled lately but I think will start to rattle off some wins too. They are both better than their record indicates.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 4-0 (24-9 Overall)

Spread: 4-0 (25-8)

O/U: 1-3 (17-15-1)

NFL Week 8 Reaction

New England Patriots (2-6) @ Miami Dolphins (6-2)

Nothing that shocking here. The Dolphins are a better team and they showed it. It’s still a little bitter because the Pats had chances to stay in the game and didn’t execute. Tua is now 6-0 vs Bill, which is pretty wild.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-3)

As predicted, the Bengals were fully healthy coming off a bye and played their best game of the season. Both of these teams are great and I think both will finish out the rest of the season strong.

Betting Picks Results

Moneyline: 2-0 (20-9 Overall)

Spread: 1-1 (21-8)

O/U: 1-1 (16-12-1)