Tag: Super Bowl

College Football Week 7

South Carolina @ 7 Alabama

Alabama has such a wide range of performance. At their ceiling, they can beat anyone, like when they put up a 28-0 lead on Georgia and beat them. At their floor, they can lose to teams they absolutely should beat, like Vanderbilt. With so many good teams in the SEC, that isn’t the consistency needed to win the conference and win the Natty.

Saturday was the perfect example of their floor where they let a much worse USC team hang around. USC failed on a 2-point conversion to tie the game, despite a wide open receiver their QB simply missed. That should have been the game. Instead, Bama botches the onside kick and gave USC another chance to win the game. If they keep playing this way in the SEC, they won’t make the conference championship.

I also do not see Jalen Milroe as a legitimate NFL prospect. He came into this week as Mel Kiper’s #2 QB which I think is crazy. He is not a consistent enough passer and makes too many poor decisions with the football to be great in the NFL. He is such a good athlete that he may eventually be able to develop into a good NFL QB with the right coach, but it’s a long shot. I think Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers are the clear cut top two prospects and after that there is much more uncertainty.

1 Texas vs 18 Oklahoma

QB Quinn Ewers looked shaky early. He got better as the game went on, but will need to play better if they want to beat Georgia. If he was more settled, this would have been a bigger blow out. There will be noise this week about Arch Manning playing over Ewers. A bad performance against Georgia will only make those voices louder.

Texas’s defense led the way and played great the whole game. They put the offense in position to score so many times. The offense missed many opportunities to put the game away earlier.

Oklahoma’s defense is great, but the offense could not keep up. Their QB should be good once he develops more, but he could not handle Texas’s defense, especially with his top FIVE wide receivers out.

2 Ohio State at 3 Oregon

This game lived up to the hype. Both teams are so even, either could have pulled out the win. I believe these are the two best teams in the Big 10 and they will meet in the championship game, with Ohio State getting revenge.

9 Ole Miss at 13 LSU

Another awesome night game that was overshadowed by the Big 10 showdown mentioned above. LSU saved their SEC title hopes with the win and ended Ole Miss’s chance to make it. The SEC is super close right now and Texas A&M, Texas, and LSU are the only SEC teams without a conference loss.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Washington Commanders (4-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

Two of the most exciting QBs in the league face off in what should be one of the best games of the weekend. I think the Ravens win, Commanders cover (+7), and the over (51.5) hits.

Houston Texans (4-1) @ New England Patriots (1-4)

Drake Maye makes his NFL debut against one of the best teams in the AFC (GULP!) The Pats should have some early game energy and come out pretty good, but it won’t last long. I think things get ugly and the Texans win, cover (-6.5), and the over (37.5) hits. At least the Pats will look good because they’re wearing their red Pat the Patriot throwbacks aka The Best Uniforms in all of Sports.

Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

The Thanksgiving staples face off just as Fall is getting started. The Lions are better and healthier than the Cowboys. I think they win, cover (-3), and the under (52.5) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-2) @ New York Jets (2-3)

The Jets have had the most Jets week since Bill Belichick resigned on a napkin. I mean literally if any other NFL team had the week the Jets just had, I would be shocked – even the Browns. But since it’s the Jets and they are one of the most poorly run franchises/businesses in the entire world, you just have to shake your head, laugh, and be thankful you aren’t a Jets fan. If you are a Jets fan? At least the Yankees and Mets are still playing and you probably have something else to root for.

Despite my thoughts on the Jets, I think they will win Monday, cover (+2), and the over (41) hits. I think teams with interim coaches get a little bump after their original coach is fired, because it lights a fire under the team. I also think Rodgers will be pissed and come out and play well. Furthermore, the Bills have tons of injuries and the Jets are simply healthier.

The Future is Now

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same.” – Thanos

And today, destiny has arrived in the form of Drake Maye. We knew Maye would likely start at some point this year, but weren’t sure when. While this will give the team and fanbase a boost of life, I still question if it’s the best move.

On one hand, if the reports that he is currently better than Jacoby Brissett are true, it makes sense for him to play. Also, the Pats want to see what they got in him, especially since they could get the first pick in the draft.

On the other hand, our offensive line and skill position players are terrible, we have a defensive head coach, a first-year OC, it’s only Week 6, and we are playing one of the best teams in the league. It’s not like he is going to be placed in a good situation that can honestly tell you how good he is. I fully expect him to play pretty bad because how can he not? There is literally nothing going for him, outside of his own natural talent. Caleb Williams and Bo Nix are in infintely better sitautons and even they have looked downright awful at times this year.

It just feels like Maye is being set up to fail. Even worse, our offensive line is so bad, he’s guaranteed to take a bunch of hits and maybe even get hurt. It just seems like the type of situation that can ruin a young QB’s confidence before he can even develop any. If Maye plays well then that’s great, but if he plays poorly, that really tells you nothing because his situation is so bad. And once you put him in, you really can’t take him out for the rest of the year unless he’s hurt, otherwise you risk ruining his confidence even more.

Once again, it’s a lose-lose situation and I know that Mayo is in a tough spot. Still, I would elect to keep him on the bench for the time being. I do hope I’m wrong and that he plays his ass off.

NFL Week 5 Reaction

New York Jets (2-3) vs Minnesota Vikings (5-0) in London

The Vikings get it done again, even with Sam Darnold playing his worst game of the year. This team is absolutely legit and is a big time contender to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

The Jets look like they might internally combust. They have talent but they are super loud and keep causing their own issues off the field. Losing will only amplify that.

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)

This might be the game of the year so far. Lamar and Burrow delivered the exact performances we wanted to see, combining for almost 800 yards of offense and 9 TDs.

The Bengals are the best 1-4 team I have ever seen. I think they will start going on a run next week and will still make the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) @ New England Patriots (1-4)

This game was just as ugly as we predicted. Both teams looked like they were allergic to scoring and moving the ball down the field. The Pats completely killed themselves with idiotic penalties all game.

Stevenson was “benched,” but ended up playing more than Gibson and looked much better. Polk showed signs of being a great WR which was good to see. I love Brissett as a guy and I feel for him right now. He is getting killed back there and I’m worried he’ll get hurt.

Lastly, the Pats have had reports coming out of internal animosity. If the defense continues to play great while the offense is pitiful, tensions will only rise.

Buffalo Bills (3-2) @ Houston Texans (4-1)

This game came down to the wire even with Josh Allen playing as bad as he can. The Texans look like they might be the best team in the AFC and I think they can go toe-to-toe with Kansas City.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 3-1 (12-5 This Season) (50-21 All-Time)

Spread: 4-0 (12-5) (51-19-1)

O/U: 2-2 (8-9) (37-33-1)

NFL Week 5 Predictions

New York Jets (2-2) vs Minnesota Vikings (4-0) in London

The biggest surprise of the first quarter was how good Sam Darnold and the Vikings played. They should continue that this game and win, cover (-2.5), and the over (40.5) will hit.

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Two teams that have played much better than their records. I think they are pretty even, but the Bengals have more to play for and are at home. I think the Bengals win, cover (+2.5), and the over (49) hits.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ New England Patriots (1-3)

This may end up being the worst game of the entire year. The two worst offenses in football face off with the Dolphins desperately missing Tua and the Pats dealing with injury after injury. I don’t know how either team will move the ball down the field. I think the Dolphins win, cover (-1) and the under (36) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Houston Texans (3-1)

This might be the best game of the entire week. Both teams are playing great, but are dealing with lots of injuries. The Bills have less depth than the Texans and have a lot of defensive guys out. I think the Texans win, cover (-1), and the over (47) hits.

NFL Week 4 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

Despite all their injuries, the 49ers utterly dominate the Pats. This game was never close and the Pats season is looking brutal. They gave up another 6 sacks today to make it 17 this year and got out gained 405 yards to 206. Even when the Pats pull off a cool trick play, it gets called back for a nonexistent block in the back. The one bright spot is that Christian Gonzalez continues to look amazing.

Injuries still may hurt the 49ers long term. Warner and Kittle aggravated prior injuries and McCaffrey, Hargrave, Greenlaw, and Hufanga are still on IR or out. They have the best roster in the league, but for the time being Purdy and Shanahan will have to carry the team. The fact that the 49ers are still playing pretty well and guys like Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings are making big contributions is impressive.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

The Chargers put up a fight, but the Chiefs always find a way to pull out a win. Patrick Mahomes is now 12-0 when his team is down by exactly 10 points in a game which is a crazy stat. It also must feel good for Chiefs fans to see Kelce play great.

On the other hand, the injury to Rashee Rice might end his season. That would be a devastating blow to a team already dealing with extended injuries to RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Hollywood Brown. Rice was their only player with over 100 yards receiving entering the game and he had over 200 yards more than the next closest guy.

The Chargers will be fine long term once they get guys back.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

The Ravens played exactly how they want to. If they play like that all season, they can beat anyone. Derrick Henry is a future Hall of Famer and he looks as good as he ever has. He’s so big and fast that tackling him must be the least fun thing ever.

On a separate note, John Harbaugh is an overrated coach. He never seems to fully understand how the NFL rules work – like when he called a timeout when he wasn’t able to on Sunday night – then he cries or complains as if he isn’t in the wrong.

The Bills will be okay, but in a year where the AFC is wide open, it’s concerning another contender beat them so badly.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (9-4 This Season) (47-20 All-Time)

Spread: 1-2 (8-5) (47-19-1)

O/U: 1-2 (6-7) (35-31-1)

NFL Week 4 Predictions

New England Patriots (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Two teams with the same record and who are dealing with many injuries but who couldn’t be more different. The 49ers are pissed off and need a win, and should easily be able to handle the Pats. The 49ers will win, cover (-10.5), and the under (40.5) will hit.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers were rolling until last week and now things are looking dire. Nearly every one of their star players is dealing with injuries this week. The Chiefs have looked off at times but are still 3-0 and are pretty healthy. I think the Chiefs win, cover (-7.5), and the under (40) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

The Bills are absolutely rolling, as they tend to so during the month of September. The Ravens saved their season from going off the rails last week, but still need to keep things from falling apart. I think the Bills win, cover (+2.5), and the over (46.5) hits.

NFL Week 3 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-2) @ New York Jets (2-1)

The score did not reflect how utterly dominated the Pats were this game. They were out gained 400 to 139, had the ball for under 20 minutes, and gave up 7 sacks. The one silver lining is now we get a mini bye week so guys can get healthy and the team can (hopefully) regroup.

It’s sad to say but the Jets are much better than the Pats right now. Aaron Rodgers looks like his old self. He was avoiding pressure, throwing on the run, and slinging it with ease. The Jets RB duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is great and Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams give Rodgers a good receiving core.

The Pats on the other hand, have very little talent offensively. As we have mentioned, when the Pats get behind in a game and NEED to pass the ball, they simply cannot do it. The only way this offense is effective is if they can consistency run the ball and impose their will. They quickly went down 14-0 and the game was basically over at that point.

Drake Maye coming in was a nice surprise. He showed his toughness and athleticism, but we do not want him playing right now. Our offensive line is bad to begin with and is even worse due to all the injuries we have. The Pats also lack effective and consistent skill players to make Maye’s life easier. I think he will gain more from sitting for the time being.

There aren’t many bright spots on the Pats, but Christian Gonzalez is one of them. He is an absolute stud and could be one of the best cornerbacks in the league by the end of the year.

Baltimore Ravens (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

The Ravens pulled out a win by the skin of their teeth to save their season. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson combined for 238 yards rushing and 3 TDs – the kind of production Ravens fans were hoping for when they signed Henry.

The Cowboys deserve credit for almost clawing back from a 28-6 deficit with less than 10 minutes remaining. Tensions are high in Dallas and they need to avoid an internal collapse so early in the year.

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-2) 

The 49ers really should’ve won this game. They outplayed the Rams and had a 10 point lead in the 4th, but ended up blowing the game.

Both teams played well in spite of missing so many pieces, but are still in precarious positions. They need to keep it together while their star offensive players recover from injury. As is, the Seahawks are quietly 3-0 and leading the division.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (7-3 This Season) (45-19 All-Time)

Spread: 3-0 (7-3) (46-17-1)

O/U: 2-1 (5-5) (34-29-1)

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Baltimore Ravens (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Both teams are in desperate need of a win. The Ravens need one more than the Cowboys and they look like the better team despite being 0-2. I think the Ravens win, cover (-1), and the over (47.5) hits.

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (0-2)

Another game between two good teams who records don’t really reflect it. Both teams are missing multiple key weapons and are hobbling through the early part of the season. I think the 49ers win, the Rams cover (+6.5), and the under (43) hits.

Football and Continuity

One thing I often hear former Patriots players and coaches talk about as a key element of success in the NFL is continuity. Brady talks about it all the time and recently Josh McDaniels talked about the importance of it on Julian Edelman’s fantastic podcast Games with Names.

While it is not something that the average fan would think of, it makes sense. Having the same coach means that you have the same culture and overall system in play. Having the same QB means your leader knows the system and is an example for others to follow. And when you have star players like Edelman, Gronk, or Travis Kelce on the team for a long time it further helps spread the culture to incoming free agents and draft picks.

And when a team has continuity while other teams in their division don’t, it makes said continuity even more valuable. During the Brady-Belichick era (2001-2019), the Jets had 5 coaches and 18 starting QBs, the Dolphins had 10 coaches and 20 starting QBs, and the Bills had 9 coaches and 18 starting QBs. Meanwhile the Pats had 1 coach and 4 starting QBs. The other 3 QBs played a total of 19 starts during Brady’s 2008 injury season and 2016 bullshit suspension. No wonder the Pats dominated their division – they actually had consistency while every other team kept having to restart.

The Chiefs have faced similar ineptitude. Since Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chargers have had 4 coaches and 4 starting QBs, the Raiders have had 4 coaches and 6 starting QBs, and the Broncos have had 5 coaches and 11 starting QBs. The Chiefs have had one coach and 4 QBs, with the 3 others QBs starting 4 combined games.

The Pats and Chiefs continuity stands out even more when the teams around them experience a complete lack of it. Continuity leads to continuous success, which experiences compounding interest just like investing does. I feel like this goes for all of life too. Having the same people in place at major positions of a business helps the business run better than if there’s turnover and the business should continue to get better over time. Constantly learning about a subject leads to your knowledge of the topic growing exponentially over time. The Pats and Chiefs are examples of the hidden force of continuity in the NFL.