From ESPN’s Bill Barnwell (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25877288/barnwell-super-bowl-liii-preview-need-know-patriots-rams-2019):
I think we’re going to get a close game, which isn’t exactly going out on a limb when you consider that the point spread is 2.5 points and that each of the Patriots’ eight prior Super Bowl appearances have included a tie or a lead change in the fourth quarter. Even if one of these teams gets up by 10 points in the first half, each has the sort of passing offense capable of catching up quickly.
I lean toward the Patriots, ever so slightly. They’re well-positioned to attack the weakest components of the Rams’ defense with their weapons in the slot, as was the case for the Eagles, who scored 66 points on offense in beating the Rams twice over the past two seasons. There might very well be a scenario like that Seahawks-Broncos game in which Donald makes a big play early and it seems to set the tone for the entire game. It would hardly be shocking if Gurley, healthier after resting for two weeks, punished the Patriots as a receiver. The Rams have tons of top-tier talent.
With Belichick and Brady focused on identifying and exploiting the weaker spots in their lineup, though, I think we see the latter become the first player in NFL history with six Super Bowl rings.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 23
My Personal Preview:
Super Bowl LIII has all the makings of a classic Super Bowl matchup. You have two great teams with very different backstories. On one side the Patriots are the greatest dynasty in the history of the NFL. Five Super Bowl wins and nine appearances in 18 years. They are the evil empire that every other fanbase so desperately wants to see fall. On the other side, you have the upstart Rams who just two years ago were one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. Now with a new city, coach, and quarterback, they have the makings of a team that could frequent the Super Bowl for the next 5-7 years. It is also cool that 18 years ago the Patriots were the new kids on the block, while the Rams aka the Greatest Show on Turf were the more established team. Combine that with the fact that both teams are coming off controversial wins and the hype around this Super Bowl is tremendous.
Offensively, both teams were in the top 5 in the league in points and yards per game in the regular season. In the passing game, I have to give the edge to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Neither QB has lit it up this postseason, but in key moments, Brady has been his classic self, making clutch throws and leading his team down the field. Goff has had his moments coming through when needed as well, but when it comes to what QB I’d rather have, it’s definitely Tom Brady.
Both teams also have great weapons in the passing game. On the Patriots side, they have guys like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and James White who are proven gamers who come up big in the postseason. Since Edelman’s breakout 2013 campaign, the Pats are 44-10 when both he and Gronk play, including a 6-1 postseason mark. On the Rams side, Brandin Cooks, Todd Gurley, and Robert Woods lead the way. All three are very capable in the passing game. Take it from a Robert Woods fantasy owner, I believe he is the Ram’s X factor this game. No doubt a lot of attention will go to Cooks and Gurley, and Woods is just so consistent- he’s had 5 receptions and/or 70 yards receiving yards in 16 of the Ram’s 18 games- that I believe he’ll have a good game. Similarly, with Gronk and Edelman being players the Rams will focus on slowing down, look to Chris Hogan to be the Pats’ X Factor, as he has proven he can go off in the playoffs. While the Ram’s skill players are certainly talented, they aren’t as proven as the Patriot’s counterparts so I’ll give New England the edge in skill players as well.
In the running game, the Rams have a slight edge. It’s always great to see a guy like C.J. Anderson step up big for his team and I see that continuing. I also just can’t see Gurley having another bad game. On the other side, the Pats will continue to pound the ground game unless the Rams prove they can stop it. Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead have been a great 1-2 punch on the ground and the fact that White takes a lot of snaps as well, ensures that all three stay relatively fresh. That being said, look for the Rams to be the better rushing team on Sunday.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Patriot’s offensive line above the Rams, and I’m inclined to agree. Overall, I’ll give the Patriots the nod for having the advantage offensively.
Defensively, both teams were in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed, but the Patriots have the advantage in points allowed, where they were 7th in the league, while the Rams were 20th. This postseason both defenses have done well defending the run, but not the pass. Without a doubt, the Rams have the best individual defensive player in Aaron Donald, the clear Defensive Player of the Year, who led the league in sacks with 20.5. Bill Belichick and the Pats do a great job of neutralizing the other teams best defensive player so it might be up to other Rams like Ndamukong Suh and Dante Fowler to put pressure on Brady. It’s well known that the teams who do best against the Pats are the ones who can get pressure on Brady with only four or five rushers. For both defenses, one of the main keys of the game is how well each team shuts down the opposition’s run game. It is more important for the Patriots to do this because one of their goals should be to put the ball in Goff’s hands and make him beat you. Stephon Gilmore is good enough to shut down whoever he is covering, making it that much harder for Goff and Co. Overall, I’d say the Rams have the advantage defensively, a big reason being Donald because he’ll either have a big game or take so much attention and help his teammates to play well.
Special Teams wise, I’ll take the Rams over the Patriots because Johnny Hekker is the best punter in the league and Greg Zuerlein has shown he is clutch and has a powerful leg. The Patriots are very disciplined on special teams and can make key plays that give them an advantage. Stephen Gostkowski is a good kicker, but he has had his struggles in big moments. He’s no Adam Vinatieri, however, I believe if it comes down to it, he’ll come up clutch for the Patriots.
Coaching wise, Sean McVay is obviously amazing. However, Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in NFL history, and the Pats have the advantage in the coaching game. In my opinion, the best part about Belichick is how he makes in-game adjustments at half time, which makes the Pats a dangerous second-half team.
Patriot’s Super Bowls are historically close games, so I’m going to say the Patriots beat the Rams 27-21.
Bonus: In terms of bets, I would take the under (56.5) and Pats -2.5. Some of my favorite prop bets include McVay’s age being mentioned over 1.5 times (-175), Gronk scoring a touchdown (Even), and total passing attempts for Brady over 37.5 (-115).
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