Tag: Quarterback

NFL Week 3 Reaction

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-3)

The Chargers barely saved their season IN SPITE of their coach Brandon Staley. I love teams being aggressive but he consistently makes dumb calls when going for it on 4th down. His team is so talented that they saved this game and maybe his job. I think eventually Kellen Moore will take over for him.

Games like this are why I think Justin Herbert is right behind Mahomes as the best QB in the league. He’s 6’ 6” 240 lbs, can avoid pressure in the pocket, scramble, make throws on the run from any arm angle, and has a rocket arm. In 52 career games, he has 15,000 yards passing and 100 TDs. Insanely fun to watch.

What do the Vikings do? Kirk Cousins is not the reason this team is losing as he has thrown for 1,075 yards and 9 TDs in three games. But do they want keep in around when he is expensive, old, and has had very little postseason success? I think they should keep him around until the deadline. At that point, if they still suck they can trade him and look to get one of the great new QBs in next year’s draft.

New England Patriots (1-2) @ New York Jets (1-2)

Once again the Patriots defense is amazing and their offense is a let down. Despite grossly out gaining the Jets in yards, the games comes down to a Hail Mary that the Jets almost executed. Mac isn’t good but neither are the skill players around him. Get ready for a lot of unders hitting this season for the Pats.

The Jets are in a brutal spot right now. Zach Wilson sucks but who out there is a better option than him? There’s no good solution.

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Bengals save their season in a much needed game. Something still looks off with the Bengals offense. They are not dynamic as normal and Burrow and the WRs are out of sync. I do like how they put Chase all over the field and really got him the ball. But if Burrow’s injury lingers, this team may continue to struggle.

Those Bengals white out uniforms are absolutely awesome. The end zone and logo also being white was the cherry on top.

The Bengals defense was the star of the game today. They will have to continue playing this way until the offense gets it together.

The Rams have played much better than I thought they would. Once Kupp returns, they could make a run at the playoffs.

Other Thoughts:

Wow the Dolphins put up Madden numbers against the Broncos. The first team since 1966 to put up 70 points and they did it without WR Jaylen Waddle. The fantasy numbers they put up were ridiculous too. RBs De’von Achane (51.3) and Raheem Mostert (45.2) combined for 96.5 points.

Betting Picks This Week

Game: 3-0 (10-7 Overall)

Spread: 3-0 (12-5)

O/U: 0-3 (6-10-1)

NFL Week 3 Preview

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

A battle of talented 0-2 teams. I think this game is close but the Chargers have more riding with Brandon Staley on the hot seat. The Chargers win, cover (+1), and the over (54) hits in a high scoring game

New England Patriots (0-2) @ New York Jets (0-2)

Both teams may be 0-2, but the Pats are a much better team than the Jets right now. I think their frustration over losing two close games to good teams leads to them taking their anger out on the hopeless Jets. The Pats will win, cover (-2.5), and the over (36.5) will hit.

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

The Bengals season is on the line this week. Since 2002, only one team has started 0-3 and made the playoffs. What better team to save their season against than the one that beat them in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The Rams have surprised me with their play so far, but the motivated Bengals should win, cover (-2), and the over (43.5) should hit.

Modern Keys to Build Successful Teams

The 2010s New England Patriots and late 2010s/2020s Kansas City Chiefs have given the rest of the NFL the blueprint on how to build sustained success in the NFL. Maybe Bill Belichick should take notes.

1. It all starts with a great ownership group. I’m not saying this is the most important thing, but it is what gets the ball rolling. Having great owners like the Krafts and Hunts is a bedrock for success. At the end of the day, even great coaches, players, and GMs get fired/released, retire, or move on, but families who are great owners can last until the end of time. Just look at the Rooney Family and the Steelers. The only down side is that is true for bad owners too (looking at you Lions).

2. Great owners will hire great GMs who know football like Belichick and Brett Veach, who can in turn fill out the rest of the front office with quality people. A great GM and front office then hire a great coach and draft/sign/trade for great players. Give Belichick all the shit you want about not being a great GM lately, but he is the architect of the 2000s-2010s Patriots (a dynasty that lasted two decades).

3. A great coach will work with the front office to bring in quality players. They will then develop them and coach them up to fit in the system. Andy Reid and Belichick obviously are experts on the side of the ball they grew up coaching, but also have a great level of knowledge on the other side too. They also hire coaches on their staff who know what they’re doing and bring a lot to the table. This all leads to high quality coaching on and off the field that is necessary for success.

4. This is the most important aspect: a star QB who is willing to take pay cuts. I know this seems to go without saying. But not only does a QB need to be great, especially in key moments, but they need to be willing to take pay cuts for the team. This allows the organization to create a better team around the QB. Brady and Mahomes are the only two QBs who seem to have realized this.

5. This will outline different positon groups in no particular order

  • Running backs: No need to spend big on this position. It’s better to have a running back by committee. That way you don’t commit too much salary cap to RBs and aren’t fucked if one goes down by injury.
  • Receivers: You need one great receiver and the rest don’t have to be stars, but need to have a few big moments when called on. The Pats and Chiefs lucked out that their star weapons have been TEs in Gronk and Kelce. Not only do they create matchup nightmares that open up the field for everyone else, but they produce as well as a star WR, for much less money. Outside of you star receiver, your other WRs and TEs should be solid guys but nothing special. Yes, one of the Super Bowls Mahomes won he had Tyreek Hill, but he proved last year he could win with a rag tag bunch of WRs too. Mahomes is so good he made them better, and they made plays when they had to. For the Pats, it was the same way. Julian Edelman was especially clutch, but he would not be the same player without Brady. Guys like Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett, and Danny Amendola also stepped up when needed.
  • OLine: You need a solid unit that gels, but you do not need any superstar tackles or players. It is most important to have a unit as a whole that is great.
  • Defense: This is where the two teams differed. The Pats had overall great defenses who ranked in the top 10 in scoring each year from 2014-2018, but they did not have a constant superstar the entire run, more so just a great unit. The Chiefs defense has been better than people have given it credit the past 4 seasons, finishing 3 of them in the Top 10. Their biggest asset has been they stepped up their game in the postseason. Their only star defensive player for both rings has been Chris Jones. The rest of the defense has been a solid unit that played well together and wasn’t very expensive.
  • Special teams: Special teams need to be well coached and disciplined. They need to not lose their team’s games and ideally make a couple big plays throughout the season, such as a clutch kick or punt return.

The blueprint is there for teams and players to follow. It’s easier said than done but the NFL is a copycat league and unless another team adopts these ways, the Chiefs will keep dominating.

NFL Week 2 Reaction

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

I still won’t hit the panic button on the Bengals. The Bengals started off 0-2 last year and almost made the Super Bowl. If Burrow is injured and/or they play bad next weekend then it’s time to panic.

The Bengals offense is so flat right now and they aren’t doing a good job involving their stars. They played better at the end of the game and need to keep that momentum going next week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Chris Jones showed just how important he is to the Chiefs. They held a great offense to nine points and he was the best player on defense by a mile. The offense will get it together and if the defense can continue to play like this, the Chiefs have nothing to worry about.

The Jags are a great team. They could’ve won that game, but did not execute well in the red zone. The Jags aren’t a team the Chiefs will want to have to play come the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Those Patriots red uniforms are the best in sports and absolutely pop.

This was the second straight game where the Pats lost by inches. That’s sports but it’s still tough to swallow.

The Pats throw too many screens. They’re skill players aren’t good enough to make people miss and get big gains. They need to air it out more.

All things told, the Pats defense played well against one of the best offenses in football. Christian Gonzalez is special and helped lock up Tyreek Hill. He reminds me a lot of Richard Sherman with his size and tackling ability. He is one of the only young players on the Pats who has serious potential.

That blocked field goal by the Pats was genius. Never thought I’d see a guy go in motion on a field goal block, but I bet other teams will copy that.

Overall

Picks: 1-2 (7-7 Overall)

Spread: 1-2 (9-5)

O/U: 3-0 (6-7-1)

NFL Week 2 Preview

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals looked awful last weekend but there is no need to panic. They started off 0-2 last year and made it back to the AFC Championship. Not only are they 4-1 against the Ravens the last two seasons, but they are a better team than Baltimore. I think the Bengals win, cover (-3), and the over hits (46.5).

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs got some much needed motivation by losing the NFL season opener to the Lions. They will take that fire into this week and they are getting two of the best players in the league back in Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The Jags are a good team, but the Chiefs with motivation are nearly impossible to beat. The Chiefs will win, cover (-3.5), and the under hits (51).

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Don’t believe the Tua hype after one game. I think Belichick and the great Pats defense find a way to shut down Tyreek Hill and force Tua to win the game -which he won’t. The Pats offense showed it has much more spark than last year and the Dolphins defense is much worse than the Eagles. I think the Pats win, cover (+3), and the under hits (46.5).

Greatest NFL Dynasties of All-Time

What makes an NFL team a dynasty in the Super Bowl Era? You often hear dynasty talk when it comes to the NBA but not as much with the NFL. To me, there are four clear-cut dynasties (in order from best to worst): 1. 2001-2018 New England Patriots 2. 1981-1994 San Fransisco 49ers 3. 1974-1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 4. 1992-1995 Dallas Cowboys.

My loose criteria for a dynasty is at least 3 Super Bowls in a 6-year span, but a dynasty can be longer. For example, given that Brady and Belichick were at the helm for all six Super Bowls and that the fact that the Patriots consistently were contenders and made Super Bowls (never went more than 4 yrs w/o making a Super Bowl) I consider them a dynasty. The 49ers had two different quarterbacks and coaches, but George Seifert took over and won while Joe Montana was still the quarterback and players like Jerry Rice played and won with both coaches and quarterbacks so there’s enough similarity to include that 5th championship in the dynasty. The Steelers and Cowboys make the list because they fit my original criteria.

After those four, the case can be made for some other teams based off one’s personal criteria.

The 1960-1967 Packers won 5 championships in 8 years and made another in that span. However, only the last two were Super Bowls and the other 3 were NFL championships in the pre-Super Bowl era so I didn’t include them.

The 1971-1973 Dolphins won two Super Bowls and made three in a 3-year span. Winning two Super Bowls in a short period of time makes you a great team, but not a dynasty.

The team that comes the closest to a dynasty but is just short is the 1976-1983 Oakland/LA Raiders who won three Super Bowls in eight years. Had they kept the same coach and/or quarterback throughout all of their titles I would be inclined to put them at number 5 on my list. However, there is too little similarity from their first title to their third title for me to include them.

The last team I considered putting on the list was the 1982-1991 Washington Redskins. They won 3 titles and made another in that 10-year span. They have decent similarities with the same coach and few of the same players on all three teams such as Hall of Fame WR Art Monk. However, the fact that all three were so spread out (5 years between the 1st and 2nd title and 4 years between 2nd and 3rd title), they weren’t dominant throughout the entire run (three straight years finishing third in their division from 88-90), and that there was a different quarterback on all three title-winning teams is what keeps them off of my list.

Overall, the definition of a dynasty varies from person to person. Regardless of whether or not the teams above are considered dynasties, they were great teams that will go down in history as some of the best ever.

Top 10 QBs of All Time

1 Tom Brady

He has put up the amazing stats in the regular and postseason. He has won regular season awards. And most importantly, he has won more Super Bowls than any NFL Franchise has. The one and only GOAT.

2 Joe Montana

A guy who played his best during the biggest moments. 4-0 in Super Bowls, 3 Super Bowl MVPs, 11 TDs-0 INTs, and a QB rating of 127.8. Oh yeah and he wasn’t too bad in the regular season, winning 2 MVPs and being a 5 time All-Pro.

3 Peyton Manning

A super likable guy off the field, he was a killer on it. A ten time All-Pro, 5 MVPs, and he also won 2 Super Bowls.

4 Aaron Rodgers

He probably throws the greatest ball in NFL history and doesn’t even look like he’s trying. It’s no surprise he’s won 4 MVPs and put up a ridiculous TD-Int ratio of 475-105.

5 Brett Favre

The ultimate gunslinger. Favre would improvise like no one else and was never afraid to make any throw, which led to many interceptions, but also 3 MVPs and a Super Bowl.

6 John Elway

One of the most hyped QBs coming out of college and he delivered with 2 Super Bowls and an MVP.

7 Johnny Unitas

Unitas was putting up big numbers in the passing game well before most QBs were. His 3 MVPs and 7 All-Pro selections show how dominant he was.

8 Patrick Mahomes

Probably the most talented QB to ever play. At only 27, he still has a lot of his legacy left to write and could make a run for the top spot on this list.

9 Dan Marino

He was dominant and put up modern day numbers in the 80s. The fact he’s on this list despite not winning the big one shows how good he was.

10 Drew Brees

He put up huge numbers year after year and brought NOLA a much needed Super Bowl.

NFL Week 1 and CFB Week 2 Preview

The King returns as the NFL season kicks off. CFB is back for Week 2 with some intriguing non-conference matchups.

CFB

3 Alabama vs 11 Texas

The game of the week between the two biggest brands in college football. After easy opening games, both teams are looking to prove something this week. Bama wants to show it is still dominant and new QB Jalen Milroe is the guy. Texas and Quinn Ewers want to show they are a CFP contender who can make some noise. I think Alabama wins this game, but does not cover (-7) and the under (53.5) hits.

22 Colorado vs Nebraska

This is Colorado’s chance to show last week was not a fluke. They face a team that also has a notable new coach in Matt Rhule, who is trying to return Nebraska to its glory days. Colorado’s offense looks so high powered and I don’t think a Nebraska team that looked flat last week will be able to keep up. Colorado wins, covers (-3), and the under (59) hits.

NFL

Patriots vs. Eagles

The Pats and Eagles square off in a rematch of Super Bowl LII. It’s an opportunity for the Pats to show that a real OC has given them back a real offense. Jalen Hurts and Co. will try to avoid a Super Bowl hangover and show last year wasn’t a fluke. The biggest storyline is the return of Tom Brady to New England. As a Pats fan, it’ll be great to see him back home and getting honored but… is there something more at play? Could they be trying to bring Tom back in some capacity as an emergency player, future exec, or something else? I fucking hope so. Regardless, I think the Eagles win, cover (-4), and the over hits (45).

Jets vs. Bills

Aaron Rodgers makes his debut in the Big Apple. The honeymoon period is officially over and now it’s all about winning games. Unfortunately for Jets fans, the Bills are a better football team with more chemistry. I think the Bills win, cover (-2.5), and the over (45.5) hits.

Top 10 QBs in the NFL

Below are my top 10 QBs for this year. I am not solely basing it off last year, but instead both the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform this year. I will update again at midseason.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

No explanation needed.

2. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert’s size, arm, and athleticism have led to him to have the most passing yards and 2nd most passing TDs by a QB in their first 3 seasons. Poor coaching and injuries to teammates have affected him, but the postseason wins will start to come.

3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow has proven to us since college he is a gamer and a winner. His spectacular play will keep the Bengals contenders for years to come.

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

The most physically gifted QB I have ever seen. I worry all the hits will pile up, but for now he is dominant and fun to watch.

5. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

An all-time great QB who still has a lot to prove. The 4-time MVP is still good enough to add a 2nd ring to his legendary resume.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

He jumped onto the scene as an MVP candidate last year. Will he be able to continue to build on his great play?

7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

One of the highest rated QB prospects ever showed us how good he was last year. Like Hurts, it’s now about building on that and getting even better.

8. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar has proven he is the most athletic QB ever and can rack up the regular season wins. He now needs to stay healthy and start having more postseason success.

9. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I absolutely do not think his best days are behind him. With new coach Sean Payton, he may show he’s still a Top 5 QB this year.

10. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

He was rusty last year, but with an entire offseason to continue improving, I think we see the Houston Deshaun who was a borderline Top 5 QB.

On the Bubble:

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak needs so much help around him to be great and consistently does not lead his team deep in the playoffs.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk puts up big numbers, but does not get it done in the playoffs.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Super talented QB, but there are big questions about his durability and leadership

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He is now in a situation similar to his Detroit days (albeit with a better coach). He wasn’t a top 10 QB then, and still is not now.

Bold Predictions for 2023

With the regular season approaching, below are some bold predictions I have for this upcoming season:

I have long been a Justin Fields guy and always thought he should’ve been the 2nd QB taken in his draft. Every elite QB who was drafted in the past 10 years has put it together by the end of Year 3. Fields enters Year 3 and I think he puts it all together this season, throws for at least 3,000 yards and 25 TDs, and makes his first Pro Bowl.

Ron Rivera will get fired after this year. He has not posted a winning season in 3 years and won’t this year as the roster isn’t very talented outside of WR and D-Line. With a new ownership group that is even considering changing the team name again, they probably want to clean house and build the team in their vision.

The Packers will finish last in their division for just the 11th time in 103 seasons. That shows how good this franchise has been in its history, but this is a reset year for them.

This will be Bill Belichick’s last season as the Patriots coach. I think another mediocre season leads to Bill and the Pats deciding to part ways. I also think Josh McDaniels gets fired this year and returns to coach the Patriots. The Raiders will be the worst team in their division and will want to rebuild and move in a different direction. With Belichick leaving the Pats, I think they call on McDaniels to be their next coach.

Justyn Ross will have a great season and establish himself as a starter on the Chiefs. Ross has the talent, as he led the 2018 National Champion Clemson Tigers in receiving as a freshman. He made a remarkable comeback in college from a congenital fusion of two vertebrae in his neck and also dealt with a foot injury last year that cost him the season. He had an impressive training camp and preseason and now gets to make a name for himself for a team with the best coach/QB in the league, who also don’t have a clear cut star wide receiver.

Russell Wilson will double his TD passes from last year and come back to form. Wilson is not washed, last year was a fluke. With a great offensive coach in Sean Payton, Wilson is primed to get back on his Hall of Fame trajectory.

Jahan Dotson will have 1,000 yards receiving this year despite the QB uncertainty in Washington. He has tons of talent and will benefit from Terry Mclaurin seeing double teams.

Chase Young will bounce back from injuries to have double digit sacks and play himself into a massive contract. There’s a reason he was a number 2 overall pick and the DROY. He is so talented and will benefit from playing on the best D-line in the league.

Jared Goff will throw 30 TDs this year. He has surpassed expectations as the QB for the Lions and should put up big numbers in a high powered Lions offense.

Kyle Pitts will have another Pro Bowl season, doubling his yardage total from last year. He’s so talented and the best receiving option on the Falcons, so I see him bouncing back.

This is more of a long term prediction, but I think Anthony Richardson will end up being the best QB from the 2023 class. Richardson will be a work in progress right now, but his raw athletic skills remind me of Josh Allen and I think new coach Shane Steichen helps him realize his potential.