End of Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform moving forward.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Do I even have to explain?

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow had a tough year, first dealing with a nagging calf injury that hampered him the first 4 games, then going on IR after the 10th game of the year. During the 5.5 games he was healthy, he threw for 13 TDs and showed how good he is.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the modern day Brett Favre. He is an absurd athlete who routinely makes jaw dropping plays. He will also go rouge every now and then and make you ask yourself what the hell he is doing. His 173 total TDs the past 4 years make up for those mistakes.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and won his 2nd league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to play better in the playoffs though.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is insanely talented, but has struggled to win. The lack of coaching and injuries around him in the past is reasonable enough to blame. However, with Jim Harbaugh now his coach, there are no more excuses. He needs to start winning games and making runs in the postseason.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but the season ended on a bad note. He will need to shake it off next year.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.

On the Bubble:

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I still am a Russ believer. He played well this year despite the fact that he did not have that much talent around him. I think Sean Payton scapegoating him for all of Denver’s woes is laughable. He may not be at his peak anymore, but is still a good starting quarterback.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.

Evaluating my Beginning of the Year Predictions

This was a wild year with many ups and downs in the NFL and CFB. At the beginning of the year, I made numerous predictions on what would happen this season and below are some of the best predictions I made:

  • I correctly picked the winner of 71% (42/59) of the games I covered this season.
  • I hit on 72% (42/58) of the spreads I picked this year.
  • I hit on 53% (31/58) of the over/unders I picked this year.
  • All told, I hit on 63% (73/116) of the betting picks I made this year.
  • Michigan won the CFP Championship.
  • Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers won their divisions.
  • Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys made the playoffs.
  • San Francisco 49ers made the Super Bowl
  • Kansas City Chiefs made the AFC Championship Game
  • Josh McDaniels got fired as the Raiders coach.
  • Ron Rivera was fired as the Commanders coach.
  • Bill Belichick and the Pats parted ways at the end of the year.
  • Jared Goff threw 30 TDs this year.
  • Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB.
  • Shane Steichen and the Colts surprised people.

Playoff Prediction

My playoff predictions are listed below. My predicted winners are bolded for each game.

Wild Card Round

AFC

2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers

3 Kansas City Chiefs vs 6 Miami Dolphins

4 Houston Texans vs 5 Cleveland Browns

NFC

2 Dallas Cowboys vs 7 Green Bay Packers

3 Detroit Lions vs 6 LA Rams

4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles

Divisional Round

AFC

1 Baltimore Ravens vs 5 Cleveland Browns

2 Buffalo Bills vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs

NFC

1 San Francisco 49ers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles

2 Dallas Cowboys vs 3 Detroit Lions

Conference Championships

AFC

1 Baltimore Ravens vs 2 Buffalo Bills

NFC

1 San Francisco 49ers vs 2 Dallas Cowboys

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl Winner

San Francisco 49ers

End of Regular Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform in the postseason (if applicable) and next year.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

He had his worst season as a pro this year and still led his team to the AFC West title, won 11 games, and threw for 27 TDs. He would be the consensus pick if you were starting an NFL team right now and is dangerous in the postseason.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow had a tough year, first dealing with a nagging calf injury that hampered him the first 4 games, then going on IR after the 10th game of the year. During the 5.5 games he was healthy, he threw for 13 TDs and showed how good he is when healthy.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the modern day Brett Favre. He is an absurd athlete who routinely makes jaw dropping plays. He will also go rouge every now and then and make you ask yourself what the hell he is doing. His 173 total TDs the past 4 years, make up for those mistakes.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and will be the league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to prove himself in the playoffs, but if he does, he will move up this list.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is insanely talented, but cannot win. I know he’s had horrible coaching his first 4 years, but the hope now is that he can get a coach who knows what they’re doing and starting winning big games. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but a great postseason run will launch him up this list.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.

On the Bubble:

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited. We’ll see how he plays in the playoffs.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I still am a Russ believer. He played well this year despite the fact that he did not have that much talent around him. I think Sean Payton scapegoating him for all of Denver’s woes is laughable. He may not be at his peak anymore, but is still a good starting quarterback.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.

Week 13 Reaction

Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) at New England Patriots (2-10)

Another classic Pats game where the defense played well and the offense looked like they were trying to score on a field 200 yards long. Even though they got shut out, Bailey Zappe looked better than Mac has looked this year. He is more athletic and has a better arm. We know that Mac is terrible. Zappe deserves to start the rest of the year and we can see if he has value as a backup.

Outside of QB, the Pats Oline was terrible and gave the team no chance to win. Rhamondre Stevenson getting hurt is another tough blow for this depleted team. It wouldn’t be surprising if they don’t win another game this year.

The Chargers defense finally won them a game, but even so the fact they barley beat the worst team in the AFC is not a good look for Brandon Staley.

San Francisco 49ers (9-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)

A statement game for the 49ers. They completely dominated the Eagles despite gaining -6 yards in the 1st quarter. They have won 4 in a row and now have the tiebreaker over the Eagles and Cowboys for the #1 seed in the NFC. With all the talent the 49ers have on both sides of the ball, it’s not surprising they are the current Super Bowl favorite.

The Eagles should be fine. They have been winning really close games all year despite looking sloppy at times. This is the kind of wake up call they needed to resettle themselves and finish strong. A win vs the Cowboys next week would have them right on track to win the division and get the #1 seed.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (31-11 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (31-10-1)

O/U: 0-2 (24-17-1)

Week 13 Prediction

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at New England Patriots (2-9)

Despite only having 2 more wins than the Pats, the Chargers are a much better team and Brandon Staley is legitimately coaching for his job. I think the Chargers win, cover (-5.5), and the over (40) hits.

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

The rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game should be one of the best games of the year. The 49ers have been itching to play the Eagles with a healthy QB and I think their motivation leads to them winning, covering (-3), and the under (48) hitting.

Week 12 Reaction

New England Patriots (2-9) @ New York Giants (4-8)

This game went exactly how people thought it would. The Pats defense played amazing and the only reason the Giants even scored twice was due to awful turnovers. The Pats offense was terrible and it’s hard to imagine Mac starts next week or the rest of the year.

Buffalo Bills (6-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

This game lived up to all its hype. The Eagles continue to show they can always find a way to win. The Bills show that they can still play with anyone. Buffalo is a good team that needs to regroup and get it together for the final stretch.

Baltimore Ravens (9-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-7)

I am not a big believer in the Ravens, but they continue to prove me wrong and are currently the one seed in the AFC. They have a tough remaining schedule, but the AFC is wide open right now.

Brandon Staley likely won’t be coaching the Chargers come next year. It’s inexcusable to be 4-7 with the talent this team has. The Chargers have 3 winnable games in a row. If they falter in this stretch, he may get fired before the season ends.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (29-11 Overall)

Spread: 1-1-1 (29-10-1)

O/U: 3-0 (24-15-1)

Week 12 Prediction

New England Patriots (2-8) @ New York Giants (3-8)

A matchup between two awful offenses that will likely be a snooze fest. While there is uncertainty at QB for the Pats, the Giants have injuries to key players and Bill thrives on punishing rookie QBs. I think the Pats win, cover (-3.5), and the under (33.5) hits.

Buffalo Bills (6-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

A great matchup between two star QBs. The Bills NEED this game to stay on track for the playoffs and get their mojo back. I think the Eagles win, cover (-3), and the over (48.5) hits.

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

On paper this should be a great game. However, the Chargers have really underwhelmed this year. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3), and the under (48.5) hits.

Week 11 Reaction

Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-3)

What a brutal game injury-wise for both teams, but especially the Bengals. They lose Joe Burrow for the rest of the season with a wrist injury. It always sucks to see great players get hurt, especially with Burrow who is so fun to watch and just started being himself after the calf injury he dealt with earlier this year. The Bengals fall to .500 and their season is likely over.

The Ravens got a huge win, but lose their star TE Mark Andrews for the rest of the year. He is their best weapon and this really hurts for a team who is 20th in the league in passing yards.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)

The rain and bad weather helped lead to a sloppy game from both teams. For the Eagles, they continue to win games even when they don’t play well. Even without Dallas Godert and AJ Brown only having one catch, the Eagles have enough firepower to comeback from down 10 to win the game.

The Chiefs are going to be competitive every single game, but their WRs problems will continue to be a thorn in their side. Mahomes will put the ball right in these guys hands and they will drop it like MVS did on what should have been a go ahead TD with under 2 minutes in the game. The AFC is wide open and the Chiefs are the clear favorite, but WR issues could easily cost the Chiefs a close playoff game.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 1-1 (27-10 Overall)

Spread: 1-1 (28-9)

O/U: 2-0 (21-15-1)