Tag: NFL

2023 NFC Predictions (Plus Super Bowl Pick)

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 13-4, 1st in NFC East, 2nd Seed in NFC

Losing both coordinators is tough, but the Eagles still have everything they need to make another run at a Super Bowl title. Jalen Hurts will look to build off an All-Pro season while still having an excellent crop of weapons in AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Godert and the best offensive line in football. Their great defense lost Javon Hargrave but still returns Haason Reddick, Darius Slay, Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham and adds maybe the best player in the draft in Jalen Carter. Overall, the Eagles may have the best roster in the NFL and should dominate the weaker NFC.

Dallas Cowboys: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East, 5th Seed in NFC

The Cowboys are the definition of the team that always looks good on paper but doesn’t follow through in real life. Dak Prescott is a solid QB, but will never be in that elite tier and Mike McCarthy is a pretty good coach but not great. Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, and a great O-line will help make up for Dak’s shortcomings. Their defense will likely be great once again led by Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, Stephon Gilmore, and Demarcus Lawrence and the Cowboys as a whole will be a good team, just not a great one.

Washington Commanders: 7-10, 3rd in NFC East, Miss Playoffs

The Commanders constantly have a talented team but don’t have the QB they deserve. Sam Howell has potential but is extremely inexperienced and their O-line is one of the worst in the league. WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson make up one of the best and most underrated WR duos in the league. As someone who watched Jahan Dotson in college, he is a game breaker and I am extremely high on him. The strength of this team lies in their D-line which is the best in the league. Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathon Allen, and Montez Sweat are all capable of playing at Pro Bowl levels when healthy. They will be tough to play against but it may end up being Ron Rivera’s last season as the new ownership might be fed up with losing and looking for a change.

New York Giants: 5-12, 4th in NFC East, Miss Playoffs

The Giants are in for a rough year. Brian Daboll proved he is a great coach but the team does not have the talent to repeat what they did last season. Daniel Jones is a a quarterback making $40 million a year when he should be making more like $20-25 million. He really was not that good last year, having for just 3,205 yards, 15 TDs, and 92.5 rating. With their star offensive weapon Saquon Barkley clearly frustrated with the the team due to his contract situation, Jones will have to be relied on a lot more this year and that doesn’t bode well. The addition of Darren Waller will help if he can stay healthy but outside of him Jones does not have much to work with. Defensively, Dexter Lawrence had a breakout season and young players like Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux have potential but their defense still is not very good.

NFC North

Detroit Lions: 10-7, 1st in NFC North, 3rd seed in NFC

The Lions won eight of their last ten games last season and will look to carry that momentum into this year. Say what you want about Jared Goff, but he is a consistent quarterback and gives me very heavy Kurt Cousins vibes, as in he probably won’t win a Super Bowl but you can constantly make the playoffs with him. New RB Jahmyr Gibbs is a great addition to an offense that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams (after he returns from his 6 game gambling suspension), and a great O-line. DE Aidan Hutchinson should be even better after 9.5 sacks last year for a defense that will be pretty average overall.

Minnesota Vikings: 9-8, 2nd in NFC North, 6th Seed in NFC

Coming off one of the weirdest and most entertaining seasons in NFL history, the Vikings will surely regress. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will lead a talented offense that lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen but added Jordan Addison and returns TJ Hockenson. They were not good defensively last year and lost some solid veterans in Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, and Za’Darius Smith so the offense will really need to carry the team again.

Chicago Bears: 8-9, 3rd in NFC North, Miss Playoffs

I have long been a Justin Fields supporter who thinks he will be a great NFL QB and this year is make or break for him. Either he puts together a great year and helps the Bears contend for the playoffs or flounders and shows he isn’t a starting QB in the NFL. I predict the former and think Fields makes his first Pro Bowl while leading the Bears within a game of the 7th seed. DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool are a solid WR trio and the O-line should be improved. The offense must carry as defensively the Bears will likely have a bottom 10 defense in the league.

Green Bay Packers: 6-11, 4th in NFC North, Miss Playoffs

After losing Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams back to back years, the Packers are in for a rude awakening. Jordan Love will likely not perform well as he has been riding the bench for three years. They have a good O-line and a great running back duo in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon but their strong rushing attack won’t make up for an inexperienced QB and receiving options. They are solid defensively, but will be hurt by Rashan Gary still having to recover from a torn ACL. Matt LaFleur is a good coach but this team will experience growing pains this year.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 9-8, 1st in NFC South, 4th Seed in NFC

Despite not having a great coach in Dennis Allen, the Saints have the best roster and quarterback in the worst division in football and that should be good enough to win the division. Derek Carr may not be as good as he once was, but is still a capable starter. Alvin Kamara will likely face a suspension but Jamaal Williams should be good enough in relief. At WR Chris Olave and a hopefully healthy Michael Thomas are a good duo that helps mitigate a bad O-line. Their defense is old but talented and should at the very worst not be a detriment to the team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South, Miss Playoffs

As Patriots fans can tell you, it is never easy to replace the greatest football player of all time at QB, especially when Baker Mayfield is his replacement. WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will need to continue to be great to help make up for the total lack of running game the Bucs have. Similar to the Saints, the Buccaneers defense is old but talented and should be solid this year.

Carolina Panthers: 5-11, 3rd in NFC South, Miss Playoffs

The Panthers will have a big rebuilding year this year. Bryce Young is talented, but I think he is too small to be the answer as their franchise QB. I don’t see the Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen signings making big impacts and I think the offense will underwhelm. Brian Burns leads a below average defense that won’t be doing Young any favors.

Atlanta Falcons: 4-13, 4th in NFC South, Miss Playoffs

The QB situation is still not great and I don’t think Desmond Ridder is the answer. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are an exciting young core of skill players. Pitts is a beast and I see him bouncing back this season in a big way. The young skill players plus a good O-line give Atlanta hope for the future, but not until they get the right QB. Their defense was poor last year and doesn’t appear to be getting any better.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 14-3, 1st in NFC West, 1st Seed in NFC

With Brock Purdy on track to start Week 1, the 49ers are sitting pretty with one of the best coaches in the league and maybe the best roster. Brock Purdy may not be the most dynamic player, but he proved last year that he is the perfect QB for this offense. He doesn’t try to do too much and spreads the ball to their talented skill players Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Sammuel, and George Kittle. They are absolutely stacked defensively with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner leading the charge and making this one of the bets units in the league.

Seattle Seahawks: 9-8, 2nd in NFC West, 7th Seed in NFC

The Seahawks and QB Geno Smith shocked people last year by winning 9 games and making the Playoffs. I don’t think Geno will play as good next year, but they have a great coach in Pete Carroll and really talented skill group in Kenneth Walker, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Their defense should be improved this year and they are led by one of the best secondaries in football.

Los Angeles Rams: 7-10, 3rd in NFC West, Miss Playoffs

It’s amazing how just one year ago, the Rams were the reigning Super Bowl Champs and now they are probably not even a playoff contender. Sean McVay is still one of the best coaches in the league, but outside of Matt Stafford, Cooper Krupp, and Aaron Donald, this team truly is awful. Their best course of action would be to trade that trio and hope to draft Caleb Williams or Drake May. If they don’t, then McVay is such a good coach, he can likely lead them to more wins the the roster really should produce.

Arizona Cardinals: 3-14, 4th in NFC West, Miss Playoffs

This season will be brutal for the Cardinals, but their future will benefit. QB Kyler Murray will miss some time and his future with the team is unclear. They have some solid skill players offensively, but no one who is a real game breaker. Defensively, their best player Budda Baker wants out of Arizona and their defense really needs an overhaul. 

2023 NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round

  • 1 SF: Bye
  • 2 PHL vs 7 SEA: 2 PHL Wins
  • 3 DET vs 6 MIN: 6 MIN Wins
  • 4 NO vs 5 DAL: 4 NO Wins

Divisional Round

  • 1 SF vs 6 MIN: 1 SF Wins
  • 2 PHL vs 4 NO: 2 PHL wins

NFC Championship Game

  • 1 SF vs 2 PHL: SF Wins NFC

Final NFC Thoughts: 

The NFC is by far the more inferior conference with only two real contenders in the Eagles and 49ers. Outside of those two teams, anything could happen in terms of other teams making the playoffs, but I feel confident that barring injuries, the 49ers and Eagles will meet in the NFC CG again. 

Super Bowl LVIII

SF vs CIN: CIN wins the Super Bowl

In a great game between 2 teams that have come close to winning recently, I think Joe Burrow and all that offensive talent overcome the loaded 49ers defense and bring Cincinnati their first Super Bowl in franchise history. 

Note: All predictions as of 7/23/2023

2023 NFL AFC Predictions

I am back and planning on posting every Sunday for the extended time being and possibly adding in a 2nd day during the week as well. To jump back into things, we’ll start with my 2023 AFC predictions:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: 12-5, 1st in AFC East, 4th Seed in AFC

The AFC East got a lot more interesting this offseason, but the Bills will win the division because they still have the best roster and QB in the AFC East. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will once again help Buffalo have one of the best offenses in the league and the James Cook/Damien Harris duo will help take the burden off Allen and not force him to try to be Superman all the time. Their defense ranked 2nd in PPG last season should and benefit from Von Miller and Tre’Davious White ideally playing full seasons this year. Overall, Buffalo is getting slept on more than a team that has won 37 games and three division titles the past three seasons should be.

New York Jets: 11-6, 2nd in AFC, 5th seed in AFC

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets probably had the most interesting offseason of any team and with it comes massive expectations. I see them having a tough start but finishing hot just like the 2020 Buccaneers and Tom Brady. Once Rodgers gets settled in, the Jets massive upgrade at QB will pair well with 2nd year studs Breece Hall and Garret Wilson, while the 4th ranked scoring defense from last year is still anchored by Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. 

New England Patriots: 9-8, 3rd in AFC East, Miss Playoffs

As a Patriots fan this hurts to write but here it goes: The Patriots have the worst quarterback and BY FAR the worst skill players in their division and in today’s NFL that is a death sentence. Belichick is such a great coach that their defense and special teams will be great and the addition of Bill O’Brien will help Mac Jones and the rest of the offense. However, it won’t be enough to get them in the playoffs in what will probably end up being Belichick’s last season.

Miami Dolphins: 8-9, 4th in AFC East, Miss Playoffs

Miami has more speed on offense than any other team in the NFL with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. But just like the Flash isn’t the best superhero, the Dolphins are not the best team in this division and the main reason why is their QB Tua Tagovailoa. The combination of question marks around his play and his injury history lead me to not having the Dolphins in the playoffs. His concussion history and a below average offensive line will lead to his his health being under a microscope and I worry he could miss time this year. Defensively, they will improve with Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey joining the team, but I don’t think it gives the boost this team needs to make the playoffs. 

AFC North:

Cincinatti Bengals: 12-5, 1st in AFC North, 3rd Seed in AFC

I don’t know what people are smoking if they don’t think the Bengals are the best team in this division. Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will continue to terrorize defenses this year with what is probably the best combination of skill players in the entire league. They lost some solid players defensively but still support a solid cast. Despite the fact they have two Conference Championship game appearances and a Super Bowel appearance the past two seasons, I think they still feel they have something to prove and they have as good a chance as anyone of winning the Super Bowl next season.  

Baltimore Ravens: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North, 6th Seed in AFC

The Ravens have been a great regular season team since Lamar Jackson took over and I see that continuing. They consistently have one of the best rushing attacks and offensive lines in the game and the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will help the passing game. Their defense should once again be in the Top 10 and if they stay healthy they will win double digit games and make the playoffs. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8, 3rd in AFC North, Miss Playoffs

One word I would use to describe the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers: OVERHYPED. People are saying the Steelers will magically be some great team just because they had a strong finish to the year last season, going 7-2 after their Bye. What people don’t mention is that six of their wins in that stretch were against teams who won 7 or fewer games and that their offense was one of the worst in the league last season. I don’t see it improving much as Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB, Najee Harris has averaged under 4 Y/A in both of his first two seasons, and their offensive line is slightly above average. I like their receiving options in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson, and Pat Freieruth but I don’t see them making up for Kenny Pickett’s lack of talent. Defensively, Cam Hayward, TJ Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick should help the team have a top 10 defense, but I don’t see the Steelers making the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns: 8-9, 4th in AFC North, Miss Playoffs

The fate of this team will come down to Deshaun Watson’s play at QB. He was a great player before he sat out for year and a half but showed the rust last year. I think he will play better this year, but guys who go 700 days without playing football usually do not come back as good as they were before. Kevin Stefanski is a great coach and Nick Chubb and that fantastic offensive line will be a big help for Watson. Defensively Myles Garret is a beast, but outside of him the defense is not that special. All things told, I think the Browns are an average team and miss the playoffs.

AFC South:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5, 1st in AFC South, 2nd Seed in AFC

I think the Jaguars will be one of the best teams in the league next season. Despite going 9-8 last season, the Jags will improve due to their great coach Doug Pederson getting another year with the team to get comfortable and Trevor Lawrence continuing to improve. Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk should continue to make plays offensively and the addition of Calvin Ridley will be huge as well. Their defense does not have any big names, but finished a respectable 12th in points allowed. Combine this with a truly awful division and the Jaguars will surprise people next year.

Indianapolis Colts: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South, Miss Playoffs

The Colts are one of those teams who had just been a quarterback away for the last couple years until they imploded last season and fired Frank Reich. His replacement, Shane Steichen, is a perfect hire as he is a young offensive guy who has helped turn Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts into NFL stars. At QB, while I don’t think he’ll begin the year as a starter, I have high long-term hopes for Anthony Richardson and see him taking over at some point this season. In the meantime, Gardner Minshew is a solid QB who I feel like has never gotten a fair shake and can hold down the fort while needed. After a disappointing, injury filled year I think Jonathon Taylor bounces back and has a great season and I see the offensive line restoring themselves to being an elite unit. Offensively, they could use another receiver opposite Michael Pittman Jr., but they must make do with what they have. Defensively, DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard lead a unit that should improve from a poor performance last season. Overall, while I don’t see them making the playoffs, I think the Colts will surprise some people this year.

Tennessee Titans: 7-10, 3rd in AFC South, Miss Playoffs

After three straight playoff appearances under Mike Vrabel, the Titans had a tough season last year and that will continue into 2023 due to lingering questions around the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill is extremely average, Malik Willis showed very little promise, and Will Levis is an unknown. Derrick Henry will have to continue to carry this team despite an awful offensive line, though the signing of Deandre Hopkins helps add another skill player who can actually make a difference. Defensively, this defense will still be in the bottom half of the league. Vrabel is a great coach and should help them get more wins than this roster really should.

Houston Texans: 2-15, 4th in AFC South, Miss Playoffs

The Texans are in for another rough season. I do not understand their draft logic by taking CJ Stroud and trading away their first round pick next year to draft Will Anderson Jr. He is a great player, but why not draft him with the 2nd pick and then try to go for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year, who both project to be much better than Stroud. Stroud put up great college numbers but he was throwing to 1st round draft picks at WR for his whole career and he doesn’t have the athleticism that the great young QBs tend to have in the NFL today. I am a big believer that John Metchie II will be a good NFL WR, but the offense is not dynamic and the O-line is not great outside of Laremy Tunsil. Defensively, Will Anderson Jr. should be a stud and Derrick Stingley Jr. has potential, but outside of them this defense is really bad. DeMeco Ryans is a smart coach, but in today’s NFL I think teams need to hire head coaches with offensive backgrounds, especially if they are trying to develop a young QB.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4, 1st in AFC West, 1st Seed in AFC

Complete shocker: I’m picking the Chiefs to win the AFC West and be the 1 seed in the AFC. It is hard for me to admit, but the team just gives me Brady-Belichick Patriots vibes. I didn’t feel that way until last year when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid led the Chiefs to another Super Bowl after letting go of a superstar WR and relying on average players and young guys at WR, RB, and defense. That is precisely what the Pats did later in Brady’s career as it got to the point where it didn’t matter who Brady was throwing to, the offense would be good and Belichick would coach up guys to play better than they were. Enough about the greatest dynasty of all time though, let’s talk about the new potential dynasty in town. It would be unfair to act like its all Mahomes and Reid as Travis Kelce is one of the greatest TE of all time who makes it easier to not have stars at WR and Chris Jones is one of the best defensive players in the league right now. Offensively, they should be as good as any team in the league and defensively, their young players from last year should be improved making this defense better, but even then they only need to be just good enough with Mahomes and Reid leading the charge. If you are a Chiefs fan, sit back and enjoy the next decade, if not then you should be a little sacred.

Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7, 2nd in AFC West, 7th seed in AFC

I am very high on the Chargers as I think the only thing they are missing is a great coach. That is obviously important, but they are too talented to not win double digit games and make the playoffs. I think Justin Herbert is the 2nd best QB in the league behind Mahomes and this year he will play his way into the MVP conversation and maybe even win it. Rookie Quentin Johnson joins Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams as weapons for an offensive who can put up points on anyone. The O-line will be one of the best in the league led by a healthy Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley. On defense, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, JC Jackson, and Derwin James Jr. lead an extremely talented group that will play better than last year. This team dealt with tons of injuries last year and I think they make the playoffs and will be a team no one wants to see once January comes around.

Denver Broncos: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West, Miss Playoffs

I have long been a Russell Wilson stan as I think he is a great quarterback and last year was an exception rather than a rule. Sean Payton will obviously help the team, but unless Russ is more willing to use his legs to run and roll out in the pocket, I don’t think he’ll return to his elite self. Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and and Courtland Sutton are good offensive weapons, but have not proven they can stay constantly healthy. They added Frank Clark to a solid defense that includes Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons on the back-end so they should see improvement there. Overall, there are many question marks with this team and I don’t see them making the playoffs, but they will be a tough team to play against, especially at home.

Las Vegas Raiders: 5-11, 4th in AFC West, Miss Playoffs

Last season did not go well for Josh McDaniels and the Raiders and it will only get worse this year. I don’t know what it is about Josh McDaniels, but as great an OC as he is, he is just as bad of a coach. This is probably his last chance to ever be a head coach unless he replaces Belichick for the Pats. Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid starting QB when he plays but is nearly guaranteed to get injured. The fact he is already starting the year with injuries is not a good sign for a team with no backup plan at the position. Josh Jacobs had an amazing season last year and Davante Adams is a top 3 WR in the league but both are unhappy with the team and that likely gets worse as the losses mount this year. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones are one of the best edge rushing duos in the league, but the defense is awful outside of them. In addition to the poor state of the franchise, now that Dan Synder is out of the NFL, look for the league to oust Mark Davis next. Las Vegas is such a great city for an NFL team with tons of potential and I don’t think Mark Davis is the guy they want running the goldmine that is the Las Vegas Raiders.

2023 AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round

  • 1 KC: Bye
  • 2 JAX vs 7 LAC: 7 LAC Wins
  • 3 CIN vs 6 BAL: 3 CIN Wins
  • 4 BUF vs 5 NYJ: 4 BUF Wins

Divisional Round

  • 1 KC vs 7 LAC: 1 KC Wins
  • 3 CIN vs 4 BUF: 4 CIN wins

AFC Championship Game

  • 1 KC vs 3 CIN: 3 CIN Wins AFC

Final AFC Thoughts: 

I understand the NFL has a lot of parity and about half the teams that make the playoffs any given year did not make it the previous year. My predictions have 6 of the 7 teams who made the playoffs last year making it this year in the AFC. The reason I am okay with that is because I picked the teams with the 7 best quarterbacks making the playoffs. In today’s NFL, QB is the most important thing so I am fine betting on the 7 best QBs. Maybe Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson bounce back to their elite past selves and prove they are top 7 QBs in the AFC or maybe a team like the Pats or Steelers sneaks in due to great coaching and defenses leading their team to the playoffs. Overall, I see it being more likely the 7 best QBs lead their teams to the playoffs.

Greatest NFL Dynasties of All Time

It’s been a while but I’m back. This time I’m posing the question what makes an NFL team a dynasty in the Superbowl Era? You often hear dynasty talk when it comes to the NBA but not as much with the NFL. To me, there are four clear-cut dynasties (in order from best to worst): 1. 2001-Present Patriots 2. 1981-1994 San Fransisco 49ers 3. 1974-1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 4. 1992-1995 Dallas Cowboys.

My loose criteria for a dynasty is at least 3 Superbowls in a 6-year span, but as long as there is at least some common factor a dynasty can continue past that six-year span. For example, given that Brady and Belichick have been at the helm for all six Superbowls and that the fact that the Patriots have consistently been contenders and made Superbowls (never gone more than 4 yrs w/o making a Superbowl) I consider them a dynasty. In the case of the 49ers they had two different quarterbacks and coaches, but George Seifert took over and won while Montana was still the quarterback and players like Jerry Rice played and won with both coaches and quarterbacks so there’s enough similarity to include that 5th championship in the dynasty. The Steelers and Cowboys make the list because they fit in my original criteria for a dynasty.

After those four, the case can be made for some other teams based off one’s personal criteria.

The 1960-1967 Packers won 5 championships in 8 years and made another in that span. However, only the last two were Superbowls and the other 3 were NFL championships in the pre-Superbowl era so I didn’t include them seeing as they only won 2 Superbowls and that doesn’t fit my criteria.

Some might say the 1971-1973 Dolphins are a dynasty as they won two Superbowls and made three in a 3-year span, but once again they don’t have my three Superbowl requirement. Winning two Superbowls in a short period of time makes you a great team, but not a dynasty.

The team that comes the closest to a dynasty but is just short is the 1976-1983 Oakland Raiders who won three Superbowls in eight years. Had they kept the same coach and/or quarterback throughout all of their titles I would be inclined to put them at number 5 on my list. However, there is too little similarity from their first title to their third title for me to include them.

The last team I definitely considered putting on the list was the 1982-1991 Washington Redskins. They won 3 titles and made another in that 10-year span. They have decent similarities with the same coach and few of the same players on all three teams such as Hall of Fame WR Art Monk. However, the fact that all three were so spread out (5 years between the 1st and 2nd title and 4 years between 2nd and 3rd title), they weren’t dominant throughout the entire run (three straight years finishing third in their division), and that there was a different quarterback on all three title-winning teams is what keeps them off of my list.

Overall, the definition of a dynasty varies from person to person. Regardless of whether or not the teams above are considered dynasties, they were great teams that will go down in history as some of the best ever.

 

Some of the Greatest Unspoken Battles Happen on an Airplane

I was flying recently and the guy to my left and I were having a serious battle over leg room. In my opinion, he was taken up way too much room. I’m not gonna lie, I like to spread out a lot on flights, but I am always in my given space range so as to not affect other people. I would keep spreading my legs a little bit to let the guy know he was in my territory, but to his credit he barely budged. Either he knew what was going down and wasn’t willing to give an inch, or he was wondering why the guy next to him kept trying to play footsie the whole flight. Definitely going to have to file today’s battle as a loss for me, but more importantly, a lesson learned. You learn a lot about the lengths people are willing to go when sitting next to them on an airplane. If you want to thrive in the unspoken battles on airplanes you need a cold-hearted, take no prisoners approach. Sad, but true.

Happy Super Bowl Sunday though, let’s go Pats.

Patriots vs. Rams Super Bowl LIII Preview​

From ESPN’s Bill Barnwell (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25877288/barnwell-super-bowl-liii-preview-need-know-patriots-rams-2019):

I think we’re going to get a close game, which isn’t exactly going out on a limb when you consider that the point spread is 2.5 points and that each of the Patriots’ eight prior Super Bowl appearances have included a tie or a lead change in the fourth quarter. Even if one of these teams gets up by 10 points in the first half, each has the sort of passing offense capable of catching up quickly.

I lean toward the Patriots, ever so slightly. They’re well-positioned to attack the weakest components of the Rams’ defense with their weapons in the slot, as was the case for the Eagles, who scored 66 points on offense in beating the Rams twice over the past two seasons. There might very well be a scenario like that Seahawks-Broncos game in which Donald makes a big play early and it seems to set the tone for the entire game. It would hardly be shocking if Gurley, healthier after resting for two weeks, punished the Patriots as a receiver. The Rams have tons of top-tier talent.

With Belichick and Brady focused on identifying and exploiting the weaker spots in their lineup, though, I think we see the latter become the first player in NFL history with six Super Bowl rings.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 23

 

My Personal Preview:

Super Bowl LIII has all the makings of a classic Super Bowl matchup. You have two great teams with very different backstories. On one side the Patriots are the greatest dynasty in the history of the NFL. Five Super Bowl wins and nine appearances in 18 years. They are the evil empire that every other fanbase so desperately wants to see fall. On the other side, you have the upstart Rams who just two years ago were one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. Now with a new city, coach, and quarterback, they have the makings of a team that could frequent the Super Bowl for the next 5-7 years. It is also cool that 18 years ago the Patriots were the new kids on the block, while the Rams aka the Greatest Show on Turf were the more established team. Combine that with the fact that both teams are coming off controversial wins and the hype around this Super Bowl is tremendous.

Offensively, both teams were in the top 5 in the league in points and yards per game in the regular season. In the passing game, I have to give the edge to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Neither QB has lit it up this postseason, but in key moments, Brady has been his classic self, making clutch throws and leading his team down the field. Goff has had his moments coming through when needed as well, but when it comes to what QB I’d rather have, it’s definitely Tom Brady.

Both teams also have great weapons in the passing game. On the Patriots side, they have guys like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and James White who are proven gamers who come up big in the postseason. Since Edelman’s breakout 2013 campaign, the Pats are 44-10 when both he and Gronk play, including a 6-1 postseason mark. On the Rams side, Brandin Cooks, Todd Gurley, and Robert Woods lead the way. All three are very capable in the passing game. Take it from a Robert Woods fantasy owner, I believe he is the Ram’s X factor this game. No doubt a lot of attention will go to Cooks and Gurley, and Woods is just so consistent- he’s had 5 receptions and/or 70 yards receiving yards in 16 of the Ram’s 18 games- that I believe he’ll have a good game. Similarly, with Gronk and Edelman being players the Rams will focus on slowing down, look to Chris Hogan to be the Pats’ X Factor, as he has proven he can go off in the playoffs. While the Ram’s skill players are certainly talented, they aren’t as proven as the Patriot’s counterparts so I’ll give New England the edge in skill players as well.

In the running game, the Rams have a slight edge. It’s always great to see a guy like C.J. Anderson step up big for his team and I see that continuing. I also just can’t see Gurley having another bad game. On the other side, the Pats will continue to pound the ground game unless the Rams prove they can stop it. Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead have been a great 1-2 punch on the ground and the fact that White takes a lot of snaps as well, ensures that all three stay relatively fresh. That being said, look for the Rams to be the better rushing team on Sunday.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Patriot’s offensive line above the Rams, and I’m inclined to agree. Overall, I’ll give the Patriots the nod for having the advantage offensively.

Defensively, both teams were in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed, but the Patriots have the advantage in points allowed, where they were 7th in the league, while the Rams were 20th. This postseason both defenses have done well defending the run, but not the pass. Without a doubt, the Rams have the best individual defensive player in Aaron Donald, the clear Defensive Player of the Year,  who led the league in sacks with 20.5. Bill Belichick and the Pats do a great job of neutralizing the other teams best defensive player so it might be up to other Rams like Ndamukong Suh and Dante Fowler to put pressure on Brady. It’s well known that the teams who do best against the Pats are the ones who can get pressure on Brady with only four or five rushers. For both defenses, one of the main keys of the game is how well each team shuts down the opposition’s run game. It is more important for the Patriots to do this because one of their goals should be to put the ball in Goff’s hands and make him beat you. Stephon Gilmore is good enough to shut down whoever he is covering, making it that much harder for Goff and Co. Overall, I’d say the Rams have the advantage defensively, a big reason being Donald because he’ll either have a big game or take so much attention and help his teammates to play well.

Special Teams wise, I’ll take the Rams over the Patriots because Johnny Hekker is the best punter in the league and Greg Zuerlein has shown he is clutch and has a powerful leg. The Patriots are very disciplined on special teams and can make key plays that give them an advantage. Stephen Gostkowski is a good kicker, but he has had his struggles in big moments. He’s no Adam Vinatieri, however, I believe if it comes down to it, he’ll come up clutch for the Patriots.

Coaching wise, Sean McVay is obviously amazing. However, Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in NFL history, and the Pats have the advantage in the coaching game. In my opinion, the best part about Belichick is how he makes in-game adjustments at half time, which makes the Pats a dangerous second-half team.

Patriot’s Super Bowls are historically close games, so I’m going to say the Patriots beat the Rams 27-21.

Bonus: In terms of bets, I would take the under (56.5) and Pats -2.5. Some of my favorite prop bets include McVay’s age being mentioned over 1.5 times (-175), Gronk scoring a touchdown (Even), and total passing attempts for Brady over 37.5 (-115).

 

 

The NFL’s Contract Dilemma Continues

The Julio Jones contract situation is once again another example of a situation that seems to be more common each year: Player A signs a huge deal that makes him one of the highest paid players at Position X. However, due to the NFL salary cap increasing year by year, the next season/offseason Player B signs a contract that sets a new ceiling for how much players at Position X make. Soon after more guys at Position X sign deals for more or the same as Player A. Now Player A, who only a year or two ago was feeling great about how much money they earned, feels under-compensated, and this creates unnecessary drama for both the player and their team.

Don’t get me wrong I get where Julio and others in his situation are coming from. Football is a brutal game and most guys make the bulk of their career earnings from their 2nd contract. Julio is a top 3 WR and wants to be compensated as such, but what’s happening to him is normal. When Julio signed his contract prior to the 2015 season, he got the 2nd most money ever given to a WR, so he definitely wasn’t underpaid. Now Julio is “only” 9th in annual salary among WR, making $14.3 million a year, just $2.7 million less than Antonio Brown, the highest paid WR in annual money. Julio has made $63 million in his NFL career. By the time his contract ends, he is on pace to have made $97 million, not including endorsements, and will still be 31 years old. Julio and the Falcons have just delayed the problem, which is sometimes all you can do. No doubt they will face this problem again soon, as will many other teams and players.

The unfortunate news is there is no real solution. Star players could sign short-term (1 or 2 years contracts) that are fully guaranteed and continuously make them one of the highest paid players at their position. However, if they were to get injured, it could cost them tens of millions, and in such a physical game like football that’s a risk most players don’t want to take. The alternative to the short-term contracts is to sign a long-term deal that gives them lots of guaranteed money and long-term security. The downside is that by the middle or the end of long-term contracts, some players feel underpaid. The risk-reward of long-term contracts is much better than that of short-term contracts, so most star players choose the long-term option. Because of that, situations like Jones’s will continue to be some of the most intriguing stories surrounding training camp for years to come.

 

 

Who would you rather have: Cam Newton or Ryan Tannehill?

On the surface, the question seems absurd. Cam Newton is Cam Newton. Heisman Trophy Winner, National Champion, #1 overall pick, MVP, the list goes on. On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is… well his resume isn’t as impressive, to say the least. However, if you take a deep dive into their passing statistics, and forget the names, they are basically the same quarterback.

QB 1 season Averages: 3,582 yds, 22.6 TD, 13.4 INT, 58.5% Comp%, 85.3 Rating, 1.68 TD/INT ratio, 4.6% TD%, 2.7% INT%, 7.3 Y/A.

QB 2 season Averages: 3,691 yds, 21.2 TD, 13.2 INT, 62.7% Comp%, 86.5 Rating, 1.61 TD/INT ratio, 4.0% TD%, 2.5% INT%, 7.0 Y/A.

(Shout out to Pro Football Reference for the info those guys basically have every team or player stat you could ever want to know about.)

Looking at that comparison QB 2 beats QB 1 in six out of the nine categories posted. Realistically though, they are so close in every stat other than Comp% you could be satisfied with flipping a coin to decide who to pick.

Reveal time: Newton is QB 1 and Tannehill is QB 2. Other interesting stats are that Newton has just one more 4th Quater Comebacks (13 vs 12) and only 5 more Game Winning Drives (15 vs 10) than Tannehill despite starting 31 more games (108 vs 77).

With all that being said of course I would pick Newton over Tannehill. While I do think Newton is vastly overrated, only looking at passing statistics do not do Cam Newton justice as a player. He has rushed for 4,320 yds (3rd most by a QB) and 54 TDs (Most by a QB) and is well on his way to becoming the greatest rushing QB in NFL history- if he isn’t already. His rushing threat pushes him well past Tannehill in terms of choosing between them. I also like that Newton (65-45-1) has won more than Tannehill (37-40). While their floors are the same, Newton’s ceiling is much higher than Tannehill’s, as proven by his MVP season in 2015.

The point of this blog is that when you take away names and just look at stats it’s crazy how much easier it is to compare players and see who is overrated and who is underrated.