I am back and planning on posting every Sunday for the extended time being and possibly adding in a 2nd day during the week as well. To jump back into things, we’ll start with my 2023 AFC predictions:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: 12-5, 1st in AFC East, 4th Seed in AFC
The AFC East got a lot more interesting this offseason, but the Bills will win the division because they still have the best roster and QB in the AFC East. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will once again help Buffalo have one of the best offenses in the league and the James Cook/Damien Harris duo will help take the burden off Allen and not force him to try to be Superman all the time. Their defense ranked 2nd in PPG last season should and benefit from Von Miller and Tre’Davious White ideally playing full seasons this year. Overall, Buffalo is getting slept on more than a team that has won 37 games and three division titles the past three seasons should be.
New York Jets: 11-6, 2nd in AFC, 5th seed in AFC
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets probably had the most interesting offseason of any team and with it comes massive expectations. I see them having a tough start but finishing hot just like the 2020 Buccaneers and Tom Brady. Once Rodgers gets settled in, the Jets massive upgrade at QB will pair well with 2nd year studs Breece Hall and Garret Wilson, while the 4th ranked scoring defense from last year is still anchored by Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.
New England Patriots: 9-8, 3rd in AFC East, Miss Playoffs
As a Patriots fan this hurts to write but here it goes: The Patriots have the worst quarterback and BY FAR the worst skill players in their division and in today’s NFL that is a death sentence. Belichick is such a great coach that their defense and special teams will be great and the addition of Bill O’Brien will help Mac Jones and the rest of the offense. However, it won’t be enough to get them in the playoffs in what will probably end up being Belichick’s last season.
Miami Dolphins: 8-9, 4th in AFC East, Miss Playoffs
Miami has more speed on offense than any other team in the NFL with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. But just like the Flash isn’t the best superhero, the Dolphins are not the best team in this division and the main reason why is their QB Tua Tagovailoa. The combination of question marks around his play and his injury history lead me to not having the Dolphins in the playoffs. His concussion history and a below average offensive line will lead to his his health being under a microscope and I worry he could miss time this year. Defensively, they will improve with Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey joining the team, but I don’t think it gives the boost this team needs to make the playoffs.
AFC North:
Cincinatti Bengals: 12-5, 1st in AFC North, 3rd Seed in AFC
I don’t know what people are smoking if they don’t think the Bengals are the best team in this division. Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will continue to terrorize defenses this year with what is probably the best combination of skill players in the entire league. They lost some solid players defensively but still support a solid cast. Despite the fact they have two Conference Championship game appearances and a Super Bowel appearance the past two seasons, I think they still feel they have something to prove and they have as good a chance as anyone of winning the Super Bowl next season.
Baltimore Ravens: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North, 6th Seed in AFC
The Ravens have been a great regular season team since Lamar Jackson took over and I see that continuing. They consistently have one of the best rushing attacks and offensive lines in the game and the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will help the passing game. Their defense should once again be in the Top 10 and if they stay healthy they will win double digit games and make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8, 3rd in AFC North, Miss Playoffs
One word I would use to describe the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers: OVERHYPED. People are saying the Steelers will magically be some great team just because they had a strong finish to the year last season, going 7-2 after their Bye. What people don’t mention is that six of their wins in that stretch were against teams who won 7 or fewer games and that their offense was one of the worst in the league last season. I don’t see it improving much as Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB, Najee Harris has averaged under 4 Y/A in both of his first two seasons, and their offensive line is slightly above average. I like their receiving options in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson, and Pat Freieruth but I don’t see them making up for Kenny Pickett’s lack of talent. Defensively, Cam Hayward, TJ Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick should help the team have a top 10 defense, but I don’t see the Steelers making the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns: 8-9, 4th in AFC North, Miss Playoffs
The fate of this team will come down to Deshaun Watson’s play at QB. He was a great player before he sat out for year and a half but showed the rust last year. I think he will play better this year, but guys who go 700 days without playing football usually do not come back as good as they were before. Kevin Stefanski is a great coach and Nick Chubb and that fantastic offensive line will be a big help for Watson. Defensively Myles Garret is a beast, but outside of him the defense is not that special. All things told, I think the Browns are an average team and miss the playoffs.
AFC South:
Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5, 1st in AFC South, 2nd Seed in AFC
I think the Jaguars will be one of the best teams in the league next season. Despite going 9-8 last season, the Jags will improve due to their great coach Doug Pederson getting another year with the team to get comfortable and Trevor Lawrence continuing to improve. Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk should continue to make plays offensively and the addition of Calvin Ridley will be huge as well. Their defense does not have any big names, but finished a respectable 12th in points allowed. Combine this with a truly awful division and the Jaguars will surprise people next year.
Indianapolis Colts: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South, Miss Playoffs
The Colts are one of those teams who had just been a quarterback away for the last couple years until they imploded last season and fired Frank Reich. His replacement, Shane Steichen, is a perfect hire as he is a young offensive guy who has helped turn Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts into NFL stars. At QB, while I don’t think he’ll begin the year as a starter, I have high long-term hopes for Anthony Richardson and see him taking over at some point this season. In the meantime, Gardner Minshew is a solid QB who I feel like has never gotten a fair shake and can hold down the fort while needed. After a disappointing, injury filled year I think Jonathon Taylor bounces back and has a great season and I see the offensive line restoring themselves to being an elite unit. Offensively, they could use another receiver opposite Michael Pittman Jr., but they must make do with what they have. Defensively, DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard lead a unit that should improve from a poor performance last season. Overall, while I don’t see them making the playoffs, I think the Colts will surprise some people this year.
Tennessee Titans: 7-10, 3rd in AFC South, Miss Playoffs
After three straight playoff appearances under Mike Vrabel, the Titans had a tough season last year and that will continue into 2023 due to lingering questions around the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill is extremely average, Malik Willis showed very little promise, and Will Levis is an unknown. Derrick Henry will have to continue to carry this team despite an awful offensive line, though the signing of Deandre Hopkins helps add another skill player who can actually make a difference. Defensively, this defense will still be in the bottom half of the league. Vrabel is a great coach and should help them get more wins than this roster really should.
Houston Texans: 2-15, 4th in AFC South, Miss Playoffs
The Texans are in for another rough season. I do not understand their draft logic by taking CJ Stroud and trading away their first round pick next year to draft Will Anderson Jr. He is a great player, but why not draft him with the 2nd pick and then try to go for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year, who both project to be much better than Stroud. Stroud put up great college numbers but he was throwing to 1st round draft picks at WR for his whole career and he doesn’t have the athleticism that the great young QBs tend to have in the NFL today. I am a big believer that John Metchie II will be a good NFL WR, but the offense is not dynamic and the O-line is not great outside of Laremy Tunsil. Defensively, Will Anderson Jr. should be a stud and Derrick Stingley Jr. has potential, but outside of them this defense is really bad. DeMeco Ryans is a smart coach, but in today’s NFL I think teams need to hire head coaches with offensive backgrounds, especially if they are trying to develop a young QB.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4, 1st in AFC West, 1st Seed in AFC
Complete shocker: I’m picking the Chiefs to win the AFC West and be the 1 seed in the AFC. It is hard for me to admit, but the team just gives me Brady-Belichick Patriots vibes. I didn’t feel that way until last year when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid led the Chiefs to another Super Bowl after letting go of a superstar WR and relying on average players and young guys at WR, RB, and defense. That is precisely what the Pats did later in Brady’s career as it got to the point where it didn’t matter who Brady was throwing to, the offense would be good and Belichick would coach up guys to play better than they were. Enough about the greatest dynasty of all time though, let’s talk about the new potential dynasty in town. It would be unfair to act like its all Mahomes and Reid as Travis Kelce is one of the greatest TE of all time who makes it easier to not have stars at WR and Chris Jones is one of the best defensive players in the league right now. Offensively, they should be as good as any team in the league and defensively, their young players from last year should be improved making this defense better, but even then they only need to be just good enough with Mahomes and Reid leading the charge. If you are a Chiefs fan, sit back and enjoy the next decade, if not then you should be a little sacred.
Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7, 2nd in AFC West, 7th seed in AFC
I am very high on the Chargers as I think the only thing they are missing is a great coach. That is obviously important, but they are too talented to not win double digit games and make the playoffs. I think Justin Herbert is the 2nd best QB in the league behind Mahomes and this year he will play his way into the MVP conversation and maybe even win it. Rookie Quentin Johnson joins Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams as weapons for an offensive who can put up points on anyone. The O-line will be one of the best in the league led by a healthy Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley. On defense, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, JC Jackson, and Derwin James Jr. lead an extremely talented group that will play better than last year. This team dealt with tons of injuries last year and I think they make the playoffs and will be a team no one wants to see once January comes around.
Denver Broncos: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West, Miss Playoffs
I have long been a Russell Wilson stan as I think he is a great quarterback and last year was an exception rather than a rule. Sean Payton will obviously help the team, but unless Russ is more willing to use his legs to run and roll out in the pocket, I don’t think he’ll return to his elite self. Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and and Courtland Sutton are good offensive weapons, but have not proven they can stay constantly healthy. They added Frank Clark to a solid defense that includes Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons on the back-end so they should see improvement there. Overall, there are many question marks with this team and I don’t see them making the playoffs, but they will be a tough team to play against, especially at home.
Las Vegas Raiders: 5-11, 4th in AFC West, Miss Playoffs
Last season did not go well for Josh McDaniels and the Raiders and it will only get worse this year. I don’t know what it is about Josh McDaniels, but as great an OC as he is, he is just as bad of a coach. This is probably his last chance to ever be a head coach unless he replaces Belichick for the Pats. Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid starting QB when he plays but is nearly guaranteed to get injured. The fact he is already starting the year with injuries is not a good sign for a team with no backup plan at the position. Josh Jacobs had an amazing season last year and Davante Adams is a top 3 WR in the league but both are unhappy with the team and that likely gets worse as the losses mount this year. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones are one of the best edge rushing duos in the league, but the defense is awful outside of them. In addition to the poor state of the franchise, now that Dan Synder is out of the NFL, look for the league to oust Mark Davis next. Las Vegas is such a great city for an NFL team with tons of potential and I don’t think Mark Davis is the guy they want running the goldmine that is the Las Vegas Raiders.
2023 AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
- 1 KC: Bye
- 2 JAX vs 7 LAC: 7 LAC Wins
- 3 CIN vs 6 BAL: 3 CIN Wins
- 4 BUF vs 5 NYJ: 4 BUF Wins
Divisional Round
- 1 KC vs 7 LAC: 1 KC Wins
- 3 CIN vs 4 BUF: 4 CIN wins
AFC Championship Game
- 1 KC vs 3 CIN: 3 CIN Wins AFC
Final AFC Thoughts:
I understand the NFL has a lot of parity and about half the teams that make the playoffs any given year did not make it the previous year. My predictions have 6 of the 7 teams who made the playoffs last year making it this year in the AFC. The reason I am okay with that is because I picked the teams with the 7 best quarterbacks making the playoffs. In today’s NFL, QB is the most important thing so I am fine betting on the 7 best QBs. Maybe Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson bounce back to their elite past selves and prove they are top 7 QBs in the AFC or maybe a team like the Pats or Steelers sneaks in due to great coaching and defenses leading their team to the playoffs. Overall, I see it being more likely the 7 best QBs lead their teams to the playoffs.