Evaluating my Beginning of the Year Predictions

This was a wild year with many ups and downs in the NFL and CFB. At the beginning of the year, I made numerous predictions on what would happen this season and below are some of the best predictions I made:

  • I correctly picked the winner of 71% (42/59) of the games I covered this season.
  • I hit on 72% (42/58) of the spreads I picked this year.
  • I hit on 53% (31/58) of the over/unders I picked this year.
  • All told, I hit on 63% (73/116) of the betting picks I made this year.
  • Michigan won the CFP Championship.
  • Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers won their divisions.
  • Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys made the playoffs.
  • San Francisco 49ers made the Super Bowl
  • Kansas City Chiefs made the AFC Championship Game
  • Josh McDaniels got fired as the Raiders coach.
  • Ron Rivera was fired as the Commanders coach.
  • Bill Belichick and the Pats parted ways at the end of the year.
  • Jared Goff threw 30 TDs this year.
  • Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB.
  • Shane Steichen and the Colts surprised people.

Championship Week Reaction

Detroit Lions (3) @ San Franciso 49ers (1)

The 49ers are the most talented team in the league and have lived up to the massive expectations they had set for them. It was an amazing comeback and now they have a chance for redemption in a rematch vs the Chiefs. What a Super Bowl it’s going to be.

You have to feel for the Lions as their amazing year ends with a crushing blown lead. They are so young and talented, you have to believe they’ll back even better next year.

Kansas City Chiefs (3) @ Baltimore Ravens (1)

Wow. I picked the Chiefs to win and cover but it still shocks me a little. Baltimore was the better, more talented team this year. But the Chiefs are the Chiefs. They have the best QB and coach in the NFL and they know how to win. They remind me so much of the Pats dynasty, it’s crazy. They underwhelmed all year, but here they are back in the Super Bowl.

Now we just need Brock Purdy to be what Eli Manning was to the Pats.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (42-17 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (42-16-1)

O/U: 0-2 (31-27-1)

Championship Week Preview

Detroit Lions (3) @ San Franciso 49ers (1)

Regardless of who wins, I’ll be rooting for the NFC winner in the Super Bowl. The 49ers are a juggernaut and the most talented team in the league. The Lions are a great all around team and so easy to root for. I give the slight edge to the 49ers and think they win, the Lions cover (+7), and the under (51) hits.

Kansas City Chiefs (3) @ Baltimore Ravens (1)

This is one of those games where I don’t know who to root for because I hate both teams so much. In a close game, I think the Chiefs win, cover (+3.5), and the over (44.5) hits.

Divisional Round Reaction

(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills

This was as entertaining as we thought it would be. I feel like both teams played great but couldn’t put it away. It ends as it always does though, with the Chiefs moving to the AFC Championship. For the Bills, they are now 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs during the Mahomes – Allen era. They are super talented but keep just missing out.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 0-1 (40-17 Overall)

Spread: 0-1 (40-16-1)

O/U: 1-0 (31-25-1)

Divisional Round Preview

(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills

This is a game that means so much to Buffalo. Despite being 3-1 vs the Chiefs in the regular season during the Josh Allen – Patrick Mahomes era, the Bills are 0-2 vs the Chiefs in the playoffs. This is the first time they get to play the Chiefs at home in the playoffs and it should give them an extra boost. The Chiefs though, have a playoff aura around them and are used to bad weather. It’s crazy to think that Mahomes has made the playoffs six times and only lost to Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow. I think Josh Allen adds his name to that list this week and the Bills win, cover (-2.5), and the over (45.5) hits.

Wild Card Round Reaction

6 Miami Dolphins @ 3 Kansas City Chiefs

My goodness it just LOOKED cold out there. NFL players are so damn tough, the fact they can play through that and some of them don’t even wear sleeves is crazy. This game went like you’d expect it to, with the game not being exciting and the Chiefs dominating.

6 LA Rams @ 3 Detroit Lions

You gotta feel good for Jared Goff and the Lions. Goff getting revenge on his old team and the Lions actually getting a playoff win are what makes sports great. Since I don’t have a dog in the race, I’d love to see them win the whole thing.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (40-16 Overall)

Spread: 1-1 (40-15-1)

O/U: 1-1 (30-25-1)

Wild Card Round Preview

6 Miami Dolphins @ 3 Kansas City Chiefs

I liked the Chiefs to win before I found out what the weather was gonna be, and now I love them. This will be the coldest game the Miami Dolphins have ever played in, with the wind chill bringing temperatures below 0. The Dolphins already struggle on the road and this is a cherry on top. I think the Chiefs win, cover (-4.5), and the under (43.5) hits.

6 LA Rams @ 3 Detroit Lions

It’s pretty insane how well the Rams-Lions trade worked out for both teams as they are now squaring off in the playoffs. In this game, I think the Lions are better, have more talent, and a deeper team than the Rams. The Lions will win, cover (-3), and over will (51.5) hit.

Playoff Prediction

My playoff predictions are listed below. My predicted winners are bolded for each game.

Wild Card Round

AFC

2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers

3 Kansas City Chiefs vs 6 Miami Dolphins

4 Houston Texans vs 5 Cleveland Browns

NFC

2 Dallas Cowboys vs 7 Green Bay Packers

3 Detroit Lions vs 6 LA Rams

4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles

Divisional Round

AFC

1 Baltimore Ravens vs 5 Cleveland Browns

2 Buffalo Bills vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs

NFC

1 San Francisco 49ers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles

2 Dallas Cowboys vs 3 Detroit Lions

Conference Championships

AFC

1 Baltimore Ravens vs 2 Buffalo Bills

NFC

1 San Francisco 49ers vs 2 Dallas Cowboys

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl Winner

San Francisco 49ers

Patriots Future

Coach/GM

With Bill gone, the biggest question was who will replace him as head coach and GM. We now know that it’s Jerod Mayo as the HC. I loved Mayo as a player and from what everyone is saying, it seems like he’s a great coach and a guy who players will love playing for. My only apprehension is that he is a defensive guy and in today’s NFL, offense is key – especially for the Pats who have a terrible offense and need to fix it. I think it’s time to cut bait with Bill O’Brien and to try to bring Josh McDaniel’s back as the Pats OC. He is a great OC and can ideally be the Pats long-term OC as he likely won’t get another head coaching job.

Ideally their new GM will come from an organization that has a history of drafting quality offensive talent like 49ers Assistant GM Adam Peters. We need to revamp the front office and bring in fresh ideas on how to draft offensive skill players.

Roster:

Their offense is absolutely terrible. They ranked last in points scored and 28th in yards. This is the main aspect of the team that needs a complete overhaul.

The most obvious part of the rebuild is that the Pats really need to draft a QB with their first round pick because no QB on the Pats is the answer right now. Mac Jones has not been in a good situation the past two years, with some inept offensive coaching and a lack of weapons, but he still needs to be cut or traded. He has a terrible arm, is not athletic, and has awful body language. Bailey Zappe is a solid backup to have, but not a starter.

The 3 pick is a tough situation to be in, though. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will likely be off the board. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., and JJ McCarthy all have some red flags and 3 seems too high to take any of those guys.

Ideally the Pats would trade up to 1 or 2 to get Williams or Maye. If not, I would hope they would trade back a couple picks and draft the third best QB in a better value spot, like 5 or 6. If neither of those options are possible, I wouldn’t hate drafting a guaranteed STUD like WR Marvin Harrison Jr or TE Brock Bowers, either at #3 or trading back a couple picks and then selecting one.

Bottom line is the number 3 draft pick ideally needs to turn into our franchise QB, but at minimum needs to lead to a bona fide star who will be a pillar of the franchise for the next decade. I’m talking a Hall of Fame level player. This draft is stacked, it is inexcusable to get anything less.

Running back is in a solid place with Rhamondre Stevenson having one year left and Eziekiel Elliot potentially returning on a one year deal. They should draft another RB in the mid rounds this year.

The Pats have the worst WR room in the entire league and they need a legitimate number 1 and number 2 receiver. Demario Douglas was solid with 548 yards, but isn’t much more than a #3 WR. Kendrick Bourne was on pace for 863 yards before getting injured, but he will be 29 next year and is probably not much better than a #3 option too. They should resign Bourne if the money is right, but should not feel bad about walking away. Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster sucked this year and we should move on from them. Tyquan Thornton looks like a huge bust, but should be given one more chance due to his speed. A WR should be drafted with one of their first 2 picks. They should also use their $74.2 million in cap space to get a great free agent WR like Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, or Michael Pittman Jr. I’m fine overpaying for one of those guys because it’s such an important position and a huge need.

At TE Hunter Henry is a solid option, who they should resign. Mike Gesicki is bad and they should let him walk. They should also look for another TE in the mid rounds of the draft.

Their offensive line struggled this year, a lot of it due to injury. They have some solid pieces in Cole Strange, Michael Onwenu, Trent Brown, and David Andrews. They should resign Onwenu and Brown, look to draft some new lineman, and maybe sign LT Tyron Smith, if he’s available.

All things considered, their defense was amazing this year. They ranked 17th in points against (in large part due to the offense turning over the ball in bad field position so many times) and 6th in yards, despite losing their two best players early in the year. S Kyle Dugger, DL Christian Baremore, LB Juwan Bentley, CB Christian Gonzalez, EDGE Matthew Judon, and S Jabril Peppers provide a solid nucleus. Dugger is a free agent and they should sign him if the money is right. If not, losing a safety is not a huge deal. Judon will likely want a new deal. Even coming off an injury, I’d be happy to sign him to a highly paid two year deal since he’s been our best player the last three years. There are some game changing free agents potentially available in DT Chris Jones, EDGE Josh Allen, EDGE Brian Burns, DT Justin Madubuike, EDGE Daniel Hunter, and LB Patrick Queen. I know not all of the guys will end up being free agents, but if they are, go try to get some of them.

Special Teams was not good this year. K Chad Ryland stinks and hit 62.5% of field goals. He was a complete waste of a 4th round pick, but you probably have to give him another chance. Returner Marcus Jones should be back next year. With ST Matthew Slater leaving, someone will have to fill that void.

The Pats have potential to be respectable next year and great from then on out if things go their way this offseason. They had 8 losses by one possession, 3 of which occurred with the defense allowing 10 points or fewer. Whoever replaces Bill as GM needs to get a new QB and some offensive weapons. They also need to spend aggressively in free agency, with some potential great players available. With Bill and Slater leaving, they also need to find their new identity next year. New leaders need to step up and lead the Pats to a new Golden Age.

End of Regular Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform in the postseason (if applicable) and next year.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

He had his worst season as a pro this year and still led his team to the AFC West title, won 11 games, and threw for 27 TDs. He would be the consensus pick if you were starting an NFL team right now and is dangerous in the postseason.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow had a tough year, first dealing with a nagging calf injury that hampered him the first 4 games, then going on IR after the 10th game of the year. During the 5.5 games he was healthy, he threw for 13 TDs and showed how good he is when healthy.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the modern day Brett Favre. He is an absurd athlete who routinely makes jaw dropping plays. He will also go rouge every now and then and make you ask yourself what the hell he is doing. His 173 total TDs the past 4 years, make up for those mistakes.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and will be the league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to prove himself in the playoffs, but if he does, he will move up this list.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is insanely talented, but cannot win. I know he’s had horrible coaching his first 4 years, but the hope now is that he can get a coach who knows what they’re doing and starting winning big games. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but a great postseason run will launch him up this list.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.

On the Bubble:

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited. We’ll see how he plays in the playoffs.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I still am a Russ believer. He played well this year despite the fact that he did not have that much talent around him. I think Sean Payton scapegoating him for all of Denver’s woes is laughable. He may not be at his peak anymore, but is still a good starting quarterback.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.