Tag: NFL

NFL Week 4 Predictions

New England Patriots (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Two teams with the same record and who are dealing with many injuries but who couldn’t be more different. The 49ers are pissed off and need a win, and should easily be able to handle the Pats. The 49ers will win, cover (-10.5), and the under (40.5) will hit.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers were rolling until last week and now things are looking dire. Nearly every one of their star players is dealing with injuries this week. The Chiefs have looked off at times but are still 3-0 and are pretty healthy. I think the Chiefs win, cover (-7.5), and the under (40) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

The Bills are absolutely rolling, as they tend to so during the month of September. The Ravens saved their season from going off the rails last week, but still need to keep things from falling apart. I think the Bills win, cover (+2.5), and the over (46.5) hits.

NFL Week 3 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-2) @ New York Jets (2-1)

The score did not reflect how utterly dominated the Pats were this game. They were out gained 400 to 139, had the ball for under 20 minutes, and gave up 7 sacks. The one silver lining is now we get a mini bye week so guys can get healthy and the team can (hopefully) regroup.

It’s sad to say but the Jets are much better than the Pats right now. Aaron Rodgers looks like his old self. He was avoiding pressure, throwing on the run, and slinging it with ease. The Jets RB duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is great and Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams give Rodgers a good receiving core.

The Pats on the other hand, have very little talent offensively. As we have mentioned, when the Pats get behind in a game and NEED to pass the ball, they simply cannot do it. The only way this offense is effective is if they can consistency run the ball and impose their will. They quickly went down 14-0 and the game was basically over at that point.

Drake Maye coming in was a nice surprise. He showed his toughness and athleticism, but we do not want him playing right now. Our offensive line is bad to begin with and is even worse due to all the injuries we have. The Pats also lack effective and consistent skill players to make Maye’s life easier. I think he will gain more from sitting for the time being.

There aren’t many bright spots on the Pats, but Christian Gonzalez is one of them. He is an absolute stud and could be one of the best cornerbacks in the league by the end of the year.

Baltimore Ravens (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

The Ravens pulled out a win by the skin of their teeth to save their season. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson combined for 238 yards rushing and 3 TDs – the kind of production Ravens fans were hoping for when they signed Henry.

The Cowboys deserve credit for almost clawing back from a 28-6 deficit with less than 10 minutes remaining. Tensions are high in Dallas and they need to avoid an internal collapse so early in the year.

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-2) 

The 49ers really should’ve won this game. They outplayed the Rams and had a 10 point lead in the 4th, but ended up blowing the game.

Both teams played well in spite of missing so many pieces, but are still in precarious positions. They need to keep it together while their star offensive players recover from injury. As is, the Seahawks are quietly 3-0 and leading the division.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (7-3 This Season) (45-19 All-Time)

Spread: 3-0 (7-3) (46-17-1)

O/U: 2-1 (5-5) (34-29-1)

College Football Week 4 Recap

6 Tennessee (4-0) @ 15 Oklahoma (3-1)

Tennessee looks so good this year. Their coach, QB, and whole team look like they can compete to win it all. Nico didn’t even play out of his mind yesterday and they still won by 10 points on the road vs another good team.

11 USC (2-1) @ 18 Michigan (3-1)

Michigan saves their season with a win yesterday. They did it in classic Big 10 style with their QB only throwing for 32 yards. I just don’t see this type of play style leading to wins vs better teams like Ohio State.

NC State (2-2) @ 22 Clemson (2-1)

In their two games since losing to Georgia, Clemson looks like a team on a mission. They are playing so well and very much can compete to win the ACC.

Baylor (2-2) @ Colorado (3-1)

Say what you want about Colorado, but they find a way to make games exciting. I genuinely don’t know how Travis Hunter manages to play the entire game and do it at such a high level. He is absolutely insane and my current Heisman pick.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Baltimore Ravens (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Both teams are in desperate need of a win. The Ravens need one more than the Cowboys and they look like the better team despite being 0-2. I think the Ravens win, cover (-1), and the over (47.5) hits.

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (0-2)

Another game between two good teams who records don’t really reflect it. Both teams are missing multiple key weapons and are hobbling through the early part of the season. I think the 49ers win, the Rams cover (+6.5), and the under (43) hits.

Football and Continuity

One thing I often hear former Patriots players and coaches talk about as a key element of success in the NFL is continuity. Brady talks about it all the time and recently Josh McDaniels talked about the importance of it on Julian Edelman’s fantastic podcast Games with Names.

While it is not something that the average fan would think of, it makes sense. Having the same coach means that you have the same culture and overall system in play. Having the same QB means your leader knows the system and is an example for others to follow. And when you have star players like Edelman, Gronk, or Travis Kelce on the team for a long time it further helps spread the culture to incoming free agents and draft picks.

And when a team has continuity while other teams in their division don’t, it makes said continuity even more valuable. During the Brady-Belichick era (2001-2019), the Jets had 5 coaches and 18 starting QBs, the Dolphins had 10 coaches and 20 starting QBs, and the Bills had 9 coaches and 18 starting QBs. Meanwhile the Pats had 1 coach and 4 starting QBs. The other 3 QBs played a total of 19 starts during Brady’s 2008 injury season and 2016 bullshit suspension. No wonder the Pats dominated their division – they actually had consistency while every other team kept having to restart.

The Chiefs have faced similar ineptitude. Since Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chargers have had 4 coaches and 4 starting QBs, the Raiders have had 4 coaches and 6 starting QBs, and the Broncos have had 5 coaches and 11 starting QBs. The Chiefs have had one coach and 4 QBs, with the 3 others QBs starting 4 combined games.

The Pats and Chiefs continuity stands out even more when the teams around them experience a complete lack of it. Continuity leads to continuous success, which experiences compounding interest just like investing does. I feel like this goes for all of life too. Having the same people in place at major positions of a business helps the business run better than if there’s turnover and the business should continue to get better over time. Constantly learning about a subject leads to your knowledge of the topic growing exponentially over time. The Pats and Chiefs are examples of the hidden force of continuity in the NFL.

NFL Week 3 TNF Predictions

New England Patriots (1-1) @ New York Jets (1-1)

The Pats face their biggest rival on the road with both teams sitting at .500. I think Thursday night games suck because it’s so hard for teams to get ready for them after playing Sunday. But if you’re gonna have to play Thursday, the earlier in the season the better. The Pats LB corps and OL is decimated with injuries right now, so it’ll be nice to get a mini bye and guys can have time to recover. I think the Jets will win big, cover (-6), and the under (38.5) hits.

Belichick Coaching Tree vs Shanahan and Reid

I was reading a book about investing recently that advised that just because an investor has success with their investing strategy, does not necessarily mean others can copy it and be successful. That brought to mind the fact that Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, yet his numerous assistants that have been hired to implement the “Patriot Way,” continuously and spectacularly fail to do so with other organizations. The main complaint you hear about these coaches is that they try so hard to be like Bill, but it just doesn’t work for them.

On the flip side, you see the coaching trees of two of Belichick’s contemporaries, Mike Shanahan and Andy Reid, that are dominating the NFL right now. Shanahan and Reid are successful, Hall of Fame level coaches, but still have less Super Bowls combined than Bill does. It is an interesting tale in showing that the most successful strategy is not always the best one to learn from and replicate.

Bill’s Coaching Tree:

  • Romeo Crennel: 32-63
  • Brian Daboll (active): 15-19-1; 1-1 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
  • Brian Flores: 24-25
  • Eric Mangini: 33-47; 0-1 playoff record
  • Josh McDaniels: 20-33
  • Bill O’Brien: 52-48; 2-4 playoff record
  • Matt Patricia: 13-29-1
  • Nick Saban: 15-17
  • Jim Schwartz: 29-51; 0-1 playoff record
  • Joe Judge: 10-23
  • Jerrod Mayo (active): 1-0
  • 3 other coaches combined: 13-18
  • Total: 14 coaches; 257-373-1; 3-7 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
    • NOTE: Above records are the record of coaches after they have served on Bill’s staff. Any record before they coached for Bill is not included.

So far, 14 former assistant coaches have not come close to surpassing Bill’s career win total of 302 regular season wins and have barley made a dent in reaching his 31 playoff victories or 6 Super Bowls.

Jerrod Mayo and Brian Daboll are the only active coaches from Belichick’s tree. They also are coaching two of the worst teams in football so, short term, they probably won’t improve the overall success of Belichick’s tree. However, if they can rebuild their respective teams, they could become exceptions to the rule.

Mike’s tree:

  • Gary Kubiak: 82-75; 5-2 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Matt LaFleur (active): 56-28; 3-4 playoff record
  • Mike McDaniel (active): 21-14; 0-2 playoff record
  • Sean McVay (active): 70-46; 7-4 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Raheem Morris (active): 4-8
  • Kyle Shanahan (active): 64-51; 8-4 playoff record;
  • 3 other Coaches Combined: 91-90; 3-4 playoff record
  • Total: 9 coaches; 388-312; 26-20 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 1 time AP COY

Andy’s tree:

  • Todd Bowels (active): 42-57; 1-2 playoff record
  • John Harbaugh (active): 160-100; 12-10 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Sean McDermott (active): 74-41; 5-6 playoff record
  • Matt Nagy: 34-31; 0-2 playoff record; 1 time AP COY
  • Doug Pederson (active): 60-54-1; 5-3 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Ron Rivera: 102-103-2; 3-5 playoff record; 2 time AP COY
  • 5 others combined: 94-167-1; 1-3 playoff record
  • Total: 11 coaches; 566-553-4; 27-31 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 4 time AP COY

Andy and Mike’s trees account for 10 of the 32 active NFL coaches (including Andy). They have had multiple coaches win Super Bowls and have had their coaching trees well surpass their regular season and postseason win totals.

I think these coaches have tended to work when Bill’s don’t for a couple of reasons. Coming from the Patriots as a new head coach, there is so much pressure in terms of replicating what Bill has done. This already puts Bill’s coaches at a disadvantage because fans automatically compare them to Bill and the Patriots success. Rebuilding a team takes time and fans and ownership need patience.

Belichick is also such a unique coach in the sense that he knows so much about every aspect of football. He is the greatest defensive mind in NFL history, knows a ton about the offensive side of the ball, and has a great understanding of personnel and the salary cap. All this is nearly impossible for a former assistant to copy.

Lastly, Bill had total control of the Pats, as the HC and GM. Most head coaches do not have that kind of power. If a Belichick guy is hired as HC and the GM of their new team is not aligned with what the new coach thinks is the best way to build a roster, then the coach is doomed from the start.

It’s interesting to note that former Belichick coaches have fared much better in college. Saban is the greatest college coach of all time, while Pat Hill and Kirk Ferentz both have had a lot of success. This is likely due to the fact that college coaches have much more control of their team than NFL coaches do.

In terms of how the game has changed, most of Shanahan’s guys are genius offensive coaches, which is what most teams look for in new head coaches nowadays. The way they coach is made for today’s modern game. For Reid, he has produced great coaches on both sides of the ball. I think they learn from Andy how to mainly focus on coaching and work with the front office more than Patriots guys did since Bill was both the HC and the GM.

Maybe Daboll and Mayo will change the narrative. For the time being, Shanahan and Reid’s coaching philosophies are dominating the league and it likely won’t change soon.

NFL Week 2 Reaction

Interesting Note: The NFL averaged a record 21 million viewers per game during Week 1. It’s seems impossible, but the NFL keeps growing and getting more popular. Even the Friday game that aired mainly on Peacock (and also local NBC affiliates in Philadelphia, Green Bay and Milwaukee) averaged 14 million viewers. This is a good sign for the NFL as they push towards more games being on streaming services.

Buffalo Bills (2-0) 31 @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) 10

The Bills simply match up well with Dolphins and consistently beat them. Josh Allen is now 12-2 vs the Dolphins and is their kryptonite. Usually, Allen plays like Superman vs the Fins, but yesterday James Cook and great defense led them to a win. That is good news for the Bills because they can’t solely rely on Allen to carry them every game.

The biggest question mark for the Bills is who their main weapon in the passing game is. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both have potential, but neither has looked amazing yet. Currently their leading receiver, Khalil Shakir, is under the 100 yard mark for the season. Someone needs to emerge for the Bills to be able to get past the other elite teams in the AFC.

For the Dolphins, this game went as bad as it could possibly go. The worst outcome is the Tua injury and the uncertainty surrounding him. It absolutely sucks to see a great guy like Tua consistently get concussions and take brutal blows to the head. This is now his 4th known concussion in the past 5 years and it’s gotten the point that we are all concerned for his long-term health. The Fins need to be very careful about bringing him back and we wish nothing but the best for him.

Miami needs to figure out how to beat the Bills. They are the two best teams in the AFC East, but the reason the Bills keep winning the division is that they consistently beat the Dolphins. The Tua injury and recovery will have a huge impact on the rest of the season, but the Dolphins still have other issues. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just 65 yards receiving. After they were taken out of the game due to the blowout, they just sat on the bench and looked like they didn’t really care. That was a moment they needed to continue to be leaders, especially with Tua out of the game, and they failed to step up.

Seattle Seahawks (2-0) 23 @ New England Patriots (1-1) 20

The Pats welcomed back Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler. Shoutout to him for making the greatest play in NFL history and giving Pats fans a moment to remember for ever. Also shoutout to the 20 other players who came for a Super Bowl XLIX reunion weekend. That 2014 team was one of my favorite Pats teams ever.

Rhamondre Stevenson and the rushing attack continues to carry our offense. Ja’Lynn Polk getting his first TD is big for his confidence. Hunter Henry was a beast today and we’ll need that to continue. Defensively, CB Christian Gonzalez and DE Keion White have both looked great through 2 games

The Pats offense still suffers from a lack of explosiveness. If they get behind the sticks and have to pass on 2nd and long or 3rd and long, they are ineffective. Likewise, if they get down in a game and have to throw the ball, they are screwed. These are the problems we have dealt with since Brady left. The hope is that Maye and the young WRs we have can eventually fix that. They still need to draft, trade for, or sign another good weapon or two to get where they need to be.

The Pats could’ve won this game if not for mistakes. A bad 2 minute drill led to the Seahawks getting the ball and a FG at the end of the first half. A blown coverage led to a long TD for DK Metcalf. They also had a FG blocked at the end of the game that could’ve won them the game.

Overall, I’m pleasantly surprised by the Patriots play the first two weeks. We have been competitive vs two teams that are much better than us. Our defense and rushing attack have been tremendous.

The Seahawks are a good team and have weapons all over the field. Three good WRs, two solid RBs, and a solid TE combined with an above average QB in Geno Smith make them a formidable offense.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) 25 @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) 26

These teams play each other so well and their games are always entertaining. The Bengals deserved to win today, but what makes Mahomes and the Chiefs so good is that they pull out wins even when they get outplayed. The Bengals had chances to put the Chiefs away, but let them hang around and it cost them.

Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson is so underrated. He’s one of the best pass rushers in the league and was THE BEST player on the field Sunday. He had two sacks, drew so many penalties, and put so much pressure on Mahomes. KC’s offensive line did not play well and will need to clean it up.

The key drive of the game was the Burrow fumble drive. The Bengals got a highlight reel interception and had all the momentum and a five point lead. Mike Gesicki dropped a perfect pass on first down that would’ve gotten them another first down and kept the momentum going. Instead Burrow ends up fumbling and the Chiefs recovered and retook the lead. That was a drive the Bengals needed to take advantage of and they didn’t.

Mahomes is a wizard at somehow winning these types of games. Even on 4th and 16, I think we all expected that to go the Chiefs way and it did. That was a bad penalty by the Bengals, but Mahomes deserves a lot of credit. He threw a great pass to Rice and it put pressure on the defense that caused the penalty. Mahomes was terrible today, but still great in the clutch.

Speaking of clutch, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is the 2nd most clutch kicker of all time behind Adam Vinateri. This guy seems to always come through in big moments. Just like Brady’s legacy wouldn’t have been the same without Vinateri, Mahomes’s legacy wouldn’t be the same without Butker.

For the 3rd straight year, the Bengals fall to 0-2. They’ll be fine and normally start slow, but losing this game hurts in case it impacts home field advantage. At least the Bengals know they can come into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs.

I’m not sure how Rashee Rice is playing after all of his incidents this offseason, but he has been huge for the Chiefs. On the flip side, Travis Kelce needs to get it going. 4 catches on 7 targets for 39 yards through two games is not ideal.

The Bengals need to pay Ja’Marr Chase. He’s clearly frustrated and it’s creating an unnecessary headache for them. Pay him and let him ball out.

Other

I gotta say, you have to feel good for Baker Mayfield. He’s gotten so much shit through his career and gone through some ups and downs, so it’s great to see him play well. He seems like a great teammate and locker room guy.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 3-0 (5-2 This Season) (43-18 All-Time)

Spread: 2-1 (4-3) (43-17-1)

O/U: 0-3 (3-4) (32-28-1)

College Football Week 3 Recap

Arizona (2-1) 7 @ Kansas State (3-0) 31

Kansas State with a statement win that could make them the highest ranked team in the Big 12.

Memphis (3-0) 20 @ Florida State (0-3) 12

FSU’s downfall this year has been absolutely shocking. To be 0-3 this is fast and look awful while doing it, is absolutely brutal.

Alabama (3-0) 42 @ Wisconsin (2-1) 10

Bama is still a force to reckoned with and Jalen Milroe is playing great this year.

LSU (2-1) 36 @ South Carolina (2-1) 33

Game of the year so far.

USC really deserved to win that one, but that’s college football for you. LaNorris Sellers balled out and USC dominated the game when he was healthy. Sellers getting hurt was a huge turning point, but USC also hurt themselves (stupid blindside block that negated a pick 6) and had some bad calls go against them (non existent OPI call that negated a huge passing play).

LSU has some incredible talent. TE Mason Taylor looks like he could be a beast at the next level. LB Harold Perkins reminds me of Micah Parsons where he could be a stud at both LB and Edge Rusher in the NFL. Freshman running back Caden Durham looked great too.

LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier switches back and forth from good to head scratching but if he figures it out, LSU could be dangerous. One thing LSU really needs to work on is their red zone efficiency. If they miss out on so many opportunities vs a team like Georgia or Bama, they won’t win those games.

Boston College (2-1) 21 @ Missouri (3-0) 27

Bill O’Brien has BC playing great. They put up a fight vs a great SEC team on the road and almost pulled it out.

Oregon (3-0) 49 @ Oregon State (2-1) 14

Oregon fans can breathe a sigh of relief. After looking bad the past two weeks, they dismantle their rival on the road. This is the exact win they needed.

Notre Dame (2-1) 66 @ Purdue (1-1) 7

Notre Dame decided they were sick of hearing about their loss to Northern IL and took it out on Purdue by putting up 66. They did it with power, putting up 362 yards and 6 TDs on the ground.

Texas A&M (2-1) 33 @ Florida (1-2) 20

You have to feel for Florida. They have a lame duck coach and the most brutal schedule in the country. At least FSU sucks too.

Washington State (3-0) 24 @ Washington (2-1) 19

WSU gets their revenge on Washington for ditching the Pac-12. This was a great game that came down to the very end. Long term though, Washington is in a much better spot than WSU. Despite, WSU and Oregon State trying to rebuild the Pac-12, it’s unlikely it will be a relevant conference on par with the Power 4 ever again.

Georgia (3-0) 13 @ Kentucky (1-2) 12

Those grey UK uniforms looked so good for the night game. SEC games are hard to win and while Georgia would’ve liked to play better, the important thing is that they pulled out the win.

UTSA (1-2) 7 @ Texas (3-0) 56

Arch manning played great, showing Texas has a bright future. If Ewers is healthy, he will continue to be their starting QB. There are still two big impacts from the Ewers injury. First off, Texas has likely proven it should be #1 given this blowout with a backup QB. Second, Ewers has now dealt with an injury all 3 years he’s been a starter. Does this hurt his draft stock?

Kent State (0-3) 0 @ Tennessee (3-0) 71

Just a brutal blowout all around. I don’t know if TN has something against Kent State, but this seemed personal.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0)

A rematch of one of the greatest Super Bowls in NFL history…

Sorry, I’m just trying to remember the glory days of being a Pats fan. In the present, the Seahawks are missing their starting RB Kenneth Walker and starting RT George Fant. This should hurt their physicality in a game where they will need it. I expect this to be a low scoring, smash mouth football game because that’s how the Pats like to play. I think the Seahawks will still pull out a win, the Pats will cover (+3.5), and the under (38.5) hits.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

One of the best rivalries in football right now gets back underway. It’s as contentious as ever with Ja’Marr Chase saying Cincy is the team to beat in the AFC and another Bengals player saying all Xavier Worthy can do is run fast in a straight line. Joe Burrow is 3-1 vs Mahomes in his career, so it’s understandable why the Bengals feel good, but these comments will only fire up the Chiefs more.

Both teams are likely missing their number 2 WRs, but this should still be an exciting game like it usually is. I think the Bengals will be a great team by the end of the year, but they always get off to slow starts and Burrow is still healing and getting back into the swing of things. The Chiefs will win, cover (+6), and the under (48) will hit.