Tag: New England Patriots

Post Draft Thoughts

So much success in the NFL is based on where you play, especially at quarterback. No matter how much talent you have, a terrible organization, coach, and team can derail a career. Now that we know where the top 6 QBs and a couple other top prospects are playing, below I predict how their careers will turn out.

Caleb Williams:

Going to Chicago has historically been where careers go to die for QBs. However, if one QB can buck that trend, it’s Williams. He is so talented and the fact that his pro comparisons are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes tells you how good he is. Unlike with Justin Fields, the Bears have actually done a great job of surrounding him with amazing weapons and a solid Oline. How great he will be will come down to how well the coaching staff develops him. Regardless, the Bears history of never having a QB throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs will end soon.

I think he will be a really good to great QB in the NFL. He will make multiple Pro Bowls and help the Bears compete in a really tough division. My main apprehension with him is he seems like a diva type player. That’s fine with wide receivers like TO and OBJ, but when it comes to quarterback, that type of personality tends to not work out. Look at guys in the league who are star QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc. They are not controversial and outspoken personalities. They always say the right things and are tremendous leaders. I just get the vibe that Caleb will not be a great leader and might causes some issues off the field similar to Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers. Once again, I think he’ll be really good to great, but will definitely cause some headaches for the Bears.

Jayden Daniels:

It’s great to see another LSU QB have a massive progression, win the Heisman, and be a top pick in the draft. That shows how great his work ethic is. His athleticism is off the charts and he will be one of the most athletic QBs in the league right away. It’s also reassuring that Daniels put up the numbers he did while playing in the best conference in college. He will be able to make an immediate impact and having an OC like Kliff Kingsbury is also a plus.

My one apprehension with him is that he is not super well built. This is something that can be fixed, but with a terrible Oline and being a guy that runs so much, it could be an issue.

Overall, he has a pretty good group of weapons around him with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson at WR and Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr at RB. I think he has an average to solid career as a starter, but is not anything special.

Drake Maye:

I have super high hopes for Maye. He was my favorite QB in this draft, so the fact the Pats got him at #3 is a steal in my opinion. He reminds me a lot of Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert in terms of his combination of size, athleticism, and arm talent. He will just have turned 22 at the start of next season and will have time to develop under Jacoby Brissett. He is extremely tough, is a great kid, and played well through some perseverance and tough situations last year.

The biggest question with Maye has nothing to do with him, but the Patriots. First off, they have the worst roster in the league, especially when it comes to Oline and WR. They drafted some wide receivers and offensive lineman after Maye, but they still need to surround him with weapons and guys who can block. Also, how will the coaches develop him? Jerrod Mayo is a defensive coach so it will mainly be the responsibility of Alex Van Pelt, who is relatively unproven.

I believe he will develop into the Patriots franchise quarterback. He has the tools to succeed in New England, with a big frame and big arm that will serve him well in the terrible Foxboro weather. He obviously won’t be Tom Brady, but I think he can be a better version of Drew Bledsoe. He should be a multiple time Pro Bowler and lead the Pats back to contention for years to come.

Michael Penix Jr:

Easily the biggest shocker of the draft. I was initially shocked by what they did, but the Falcons explaining why they did it helped me make more sense of it. I just don’t agree with their reasoning.

Penix is going to be 24 before the season starts and is maybe the most “pro-ready” QB prospect in the draft. But they drafted him to be the developmental, eventual starter. He should have some good weapons around him when he does start, but when will that be?

They owe Kirk Cousins a ton of money and realistically can’t get out of the contact until 2026 when Penix with be 26 himself. Cousins isn’t amazing but he’s a good enough starter who probably won’t play himself out of the position. With all the uncertainty and an odd situation, I think Penix doesn’t end up being a long-term starter in the league.

J.J. McCarthy:

I like McCarthy, but easily think he was the most overrated player this draft. Compared to the other 5 QBs taken, I think he easily was the worst prospect and was benefited by his team more than any of them. With that being said, he is going to basically the perfect situation. He has a really good offensive coach in Kevin O’Connell, the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson, a top 3 TE in TJ Hockenson, one of the best young WRs in the league in Jordan Addison, and new RB Aaron Jones. They even have a good offensive line. Furthermore, McCarthy can develop behind Sam Darnold if needed.

I think McCarthy will have a career similar to the man he is replacing – Kirk Cousins. His situation is just too good to be a complete bust. I see him putting up solid numbers but not being a guy who can win his team big games and take them far in the playoffs.

Bo Nix:

Nix lands in a spot with a good head coach, but a team that really lacks weapons. He’s accurate and has a ton of experience, but I just don’t think he has that high of a ceiling. Sean Payton has also been very impatient and critical of his QB and team since taking over and I don’t think that’s a great situation for any rookie QB. I think Nix ends up playing a good bit as a rookie, but I don’t think his career will mount to much and he won’t be a long-term starter.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

I think he is the best player in this class and the most exciting by far. Getting to play for a good QB in Kyler is also huge for him. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and should be an absolute stud for years to come.

Brock Bowers:

I think Bowers fits into the Raiders mold well. The biggest question is who is gonna be the QB throwing him the ball and how good will they be. However, he’s so talented that he should make an immediate impact and he has other weapons around him so defenses can’t just key in on him. He should be a long-term starter and make a handful of Pro Bowls.

Other Quick Points

With 6 QBs taken in the first round and all these other amazing offensive players at marquee positions like WR and OT, I think this draft will go down in history as one of the best ever.

The fact that round 1 of the NFL draft had a higher average viewership than last year’s NBA finals once again shows why football is the king of sports in the US.

Xavier Worthy should be a great pick for Chiefs. He fits in so well with Mahomes and that offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their WR corps into one of the better ones in the league in just one year, showing why they are the dynasty that they are.

It’s still so early, but the Bears – Panthers trade from last year might go down as the worst trade in NFL history. If Bryce Young ends up being a bust, while Caleb is a stud that’s bad enough. But on top of that, the Bears got one of the best WRs in the league, a starting tackle, a starting CB, and still have another 2nd round pick next year. This is something to keep an eye on.

Patriots Free Agency and Draft Recap

Below are some of the highlights (and some lowlights) of the Pats offseason so far.

Key Additions/Returners:

Drake Maye, QB: Wow, this could not have gone better. He would have been my top choice at QB even if we had the number 1 pick. He’s absolutely our guy. I’m happy we got him some new WRs and offensive linemen because we needed help there and still do. Now we need to let him develop and simaltaneously keep building up the team around him. Don’t have the reason he doesn’t succeed be because we didn’t give him anything to work with. Luckily, the great thing is that he can sit behind Jacoby Brisset for a year if needed and develop while we continue to build up our team in free agency and the draft next year. I don’t like the Joe Milton pick unless they end up moving him to TE. It makes no sense to have two rookie QBs that you need to develop, so hopefully he switches positions.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR: I have high hopes for Polk. He was overshadowed by Romeo Odunze, but still had a great season for Washington. He’s got great size and should immediately become our WR1. In recent history, many stud WRs have been taken in the early 2nd round, so Polk could develop into a star WR for us.

Caedan Wallace, OT: He is a player with a low floor, but a high ceiling. He could end up contributing nothing or being a great player for years to come. It helps that he can play left tackle or right tackle, so hopefully he can make an impact his rookie year.

Jacoby Brissett, QB: I love signing Brissett to a 1 year deal for $8 mil. It is a perfect low risk move that gives us a potential bridge QB who is a great guy and teammate.

Mike Onwenu, G/T: Signing him to a 3 year deal for $57 mil is a little expensive, but I’m happy they kept him. Having a good offensive line is huge for a young QB and Onwenu can play both guard spots and right tackle so he’s a huge asset. The Pats have let great homegrown offensive lineman like Joe Thuney leave in recent years so I love that we kept Onwenu around.

Kendrick Bourne, WR: I think we overpaid him at 3 years, $33 mil, but its good to have our best WR from last year back. Ideally we draft a couple weapons and he is our number 3 receiver, but he’s still a good guy to have around.

Hunter Henry, TE: I feel similar about this signing as I do with Bourne. That being said, he’s our best red zone option and can be a great safety blanket for a young QB.

Kyle Dugger, S: The Pats placed the transition tag on him, then signed him to a 4 year $58 million deal. He’s a good player and seems like a good guy, but I don’t get why they shelled out such a big deal to a guy who is 28 and doesn’t play a premium position.

Christian Barmore, DT: The Pats signed Barmore to a massive 4 year deal worth up to $92 million. He’s now the 7th highest paid DT in the league and it’s the biggest non-Tom Brady contract in team history. They easily overpaid Barmore. However, the one thing that eases my disagreement is that only about $40 million is guaranteed. Seeing as the Pats have plenty of cap space and no real stars they need to resign soon, it still isn’t a good deal, but isn’t detrimental. Barmore was pretty good last year and let’s hope he now raises his game even more.

Key Depatures:

Mac Jones, QB: This was a great move. Having Mac there would be awkward for our new QB and the fact we got anything for him is huge. A 6th round pick isn’t amazing, but Brady was a 6th round pick so you never know what they could get.

Trent Brown, T: He was by no means that good, but losing your left tackle is important, especially with a new young QB. They need to replace him.

Overall, I’m very happy with how this offseason went. The Pats got their potential franchise QB and some WRs and offensive lineman in the draft, which were their three biggest needs. That shows that they are willing to invest significant time and draft capital into offensive players, which they have been terrible at the last decade plus. They also resigned some key lineman and receivers, while cleaning house by trading away Mac Jones. I don’t expect us to win a lot of games this year, but my hope is our young players can develop and the future will look bright.

Belichick vs Kraft Beef Reaction

It’s sad to see what has become of two of the core members of the Pat’s Dynasty. Bill’s name has been dragged through the mud the past four years as people have said he is an incompetent GM and an out of touch coach. Now, its gotten to the point where Bill couldn’t get a job in the latest hiring cycle and his future as a head coach is in jeopardy.

What’s made the Bill situation more awkward is the role that Kraft has seemed to play in the smearing of Bill’s name. Reports have come out for the last five or so years about Kraft not liking Belichick and saying a demeaning thing here and there. But this offseason, it has turned into a full frontal assault on Bill.

First, the documentary, “The Dynasty,” came out. A lot of former Pats have called it terrible, and it seems like a hit piece Kraft helped make to simultaneously shit on Belichick, while also making himself look good so he can get into the Hall of Fame. Now, a report has come out that Kraft has been talking about Bill behind his back to sabotage Bill and prevent him from getting a job. The article stated a big reason for this is that Brady has left and had success and if Bill does the same, then Kraft looks like the reason the Pats dynasty failed and the least important of the three. Kraft’s main hope of looking good is if Bill doesn’t get a job and he can rebuild the Pats to a title contender.

It has gotten to the point that people are now defending Bill and shitting on Kraft, which I never thought I’d see. It’s also important to remember that while I’m sure there’s some truth to all of this, it also is likely getting blown out of proportion to make it into an entertaining story.

Regardless, this is tough as a Pats fan because I really like both of them. I think Bill is the greatest coach and GM ever, and Kraft is the greatest owner of all time. Both completely deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame and every Pats fan should be grateful for both of them. I think time is what’s needed to heal this relationship. After a couple years, I’m sure the beef will mostly subside and they’ll be thankful for each other and what they were able to accomplish together.

Top 10 QBs of All Time

1 Tom Brady

Numbers. Awards. Super Bowls. He has done it all and done it better than anyone else we’ve ever seen. The one and only GOAT.

2 Joe Montana

A guy who played his best during the biggest moments. His Super Bowl stats: 4-0, 3 Super Bowl MVPs, 11 TDs-0 INTs, and a QB rating of 127.8. Oh yeah and he wasn’t too bad in the regular season, winning 2 MVPs and being a 5 time All-Pro.

3 Peyton Manning

A super likable guy off the field, but a killer on it. A ten time All-Pro, 5 time MVP, and he won 2 Super Bowls.

4 Aaron Rodgers

He probably throws the greatest ball in NFL history and doesn’t even look like he’s trying. It’s no surprise he’s won 4 MVPs and put up a ridiculous TD-Int ratio of 475-105. He can still build on his insane resume.

5 Patrick Mahomes

Probably the most talented QB to ever play. At only 28, he still has a lot of his legacy left to write and could make a run for the top spot on this list.

6 Brett Favre

The ultimate gunslinger. Favre would improvise like no one else and was never afraid to make any throw, which led to many interceptions, but also 3 MVPs and a Super Bowl.

7 John Elway

One of the most hyped QBs coming out of college and he delivered with 2 Super Bowls and an MVP.

8 Johnny Unitas

Unitas was putting up big numbers in the passing game well before most QBs were. His 3 MVPs and 7 All-Pro selections show how dominant he was.

9 Dan Marino

He was dominant and put up modern day numbers in the 80s. The fact he’s on this list despite not winning the big one shows how good he was.

10 Drew Brees

He put up huge numbers year after year and brought NOLA a much needed Super Bowl.

Evaluating my Beginning of the Year Predictions

This was a wild year with many ups and downs in the NFL and CFB. At the beginning of the year, I made numerous predictions on what would happen this season and below are some of the best predictions I made:

  • I correctly picked the winner of 71% (42/59) of the games I covered this season.
  • I hit on 72% (42/58) of the spreads I picked this year.
  • I hit on 53% (31/58) of the over/unders I picked this year.
  • All told, I hit on 63% (73/116) of the betting picks I made this year.
  • Michigan won the CFP Championship.
  • Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers won their divisions.
  • Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys made the playoffs.
  • San Francisco 49ers made the Super Bowl
  • Kansas City Chiefs made the AFC Championship Game
  • Josh McDaniels got fired as the Raiders coach.
  • Ron Rivera was fired as the Commanders coach.
  • Bill Belichick and the Pats parted ways at the end of the year.
  • Jared Goff threw 30 TDs this year.
  • Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB.
  • Shane Steichen and the Colts surprised people.

Patriots Future

Coach/GM

With Bill gone, the biggest question was who will replace him as head coach and GM. We now know that it’s Jerod Mayo as the HC. I loved Mayo as a player and from what everyone is saying, it seems like he’s a great coach and a guy who players will love playing for. My only apprehension is that he is a defensive guy and in today’s NFL, offense is key – especially for the Pats who have a terrible offense and need to fix it. I think it’s time to cut bait with Bill O’Brien and to try to bring Josh McDaniel’s back as the Pats OC. He is a great OC and can ideally be the Pats long-term OC as he likely won’t get another head coaching job.

Ideally their new GM will come from an organization that has a history of drafting quality offensive talent like 49ers Assistant GM Adam Peters. We need to revamp the front office and bring in fresh ideas on how to draft offensive skill players.

Roster:

Their offense is absolutely terrible. They ranked last in points scored and 28th in yards. This is the main aspect of the team that needs a complete overhaul.

The most obvious part of the rebuild is that the Pats really need to draft a QB with their first round pick because no QB on the Pats is the answer right now. Mac Jones has not been in a good situation the past two years, with some inept offensive coaching and a lack of weapons, but he still needs to be cut or traded. He has a terrible arm, is not athletic, and has awful body language. Bailey Zappe is a solid backup to have, but not a starter.

The 3 pick is a tough situation to be in, though. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will likely be off the board. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., and JJ McCarthy all have some red flags and 3 seems too high to take any of those guys.

Ideally the Pats would trade up to 1 or 2 to get Williams or Maye. If not, I would hope they would trade back a couple picks and draft the third best QB in a better value spot, like 5 or 6. If neither of those options are possible, I wouldn’t hate drafting a guaranteed STUD like WR Marvin Harrison Jr or TE Brock Bowers, either at #3 or trading back a couple picks and then selecting one.

Bottom line is the number 3 draft pick ideally needs to turn into our franchise QB, but at minimum needs to lead to a bona fide star who will be a pillar of the franchise for the next decade. I’m talking a Hall of Fame level player. This draft is stacked, it is inexcusable to get anything less.

Running back is in a solid place with Rhamondre Stevenson having one year left and Eziekiel Elliot potentially returning on a one year deal. They should draft another RB in the mid rounds this year.

The Pats have the worst WR room in the entire league and they need a legitimate number 1 and number 2 receiver. Demario Douglas was solid with 548 yards, but isn’t much more than a #3 WR. Kendrick Bourne was on pace for 863 yards before getting injured, but he will be 29 next year and is probably not much better than a #3 option too. They should resign Bourne if the money is right, but should not feel bad about walking away. Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster sucked this year and we should move on from them. Tyquan Thornton looks like a huge bust, but should be given one more chance due to his speed. A WR should be drafted with one of their first 2 picks. They should also use their $74.2 million in cap space to get a great free agent WR like Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, or Michael Pittman Jr. I’m fine overpaying for one of those guys because it’s such an important position and a huge need.

At TE Hunter Henry is a solid option, who they should resign. Mike Gesicki is bad and they should let him walk. They should also look for another TE in the mid rounds of the draft.

Their offensive line struggled this year, a lot of it due to injury. They have some solid pieces in Cole Strange, Michael Onwenu, Trent Brown, and David Andrews. They should resign Onwenu and Brown, look to draft some new lineman, and maybe sign LT Tyron Smith, if he’s available.

All things considered, their defense was amazing this year. They ranked 17th in points against (in large part due to the offense turning over the ball in bad field position so many times) and 6th in yards, despite losing their two best players early in the year. S Kyle Dugger, DL Christian Baremore, LB Juwan Bentley, CB Christian Gonzalez, EDGE Matthew Judon, and S Jabril Peppers provide a solid nucleus. Dugger is a free agent and they should sign him if the money is right. If not, losing a safety is not a huge deal. Judon will likely want a new deal. Even coming off an injury, I’d be happy to sign him to a highly paid two year deal since he’s been our best player the last three years. There are some game changing free agents potentially available in DT Chris Jones, EDGE Josh Allen, EDGE Brian Burns, DT Justin Madubuike, EDGE Daniel Hunter, and LB Patrick Queen. I know not all of the guys will end up being free agents, but if they are, go try to get some of them.

Special Teams was not good this year. K Chad Ryland stinks and hit 62.5% of field goals. He was a complete waste of a 4th round pick, but you probably have to give him another chance. Returner Marcus Jones should be back next year. With ST Matthew Slater leaving, someone will have to fill that void.

The Pats have potential to be respectable next year and great from then on out if things go their way this offseason. They had 8 losses by one possession, 3 of which occurred with the defense allowing 10 points or fewer. Whoever replaces Bill as GM needs to get a new QB and some offensive weapons. They also need to spend aggressively in free agency, with some potential great players available. With Bill and Slater leaving, they also need to find their new identity next year. New leaders need to step up and lead the Pats to a new Golden Age.

NFL Week 18 Reaction

Buffalo Bills (11-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-6)

The Bills dominated this game, with the exception of the red zone. The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins and it showed each time they played them. The win now gives the Bills the 2 seed and a much easier path to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins now have to play the defending champions on the road and will likely not last long in the playoffs.

New England Patriots (4-13) @ New York Jets (7-10)

The snow plus two inept offenses led to a very unexciting game. New England finishes 4-13 for their worst season since 1992. I was hoping the Pats would get the number 2 pick, but we have to settle for 3.

The biggest news obviously is that this could be Bill Belichick’s last game as the Patriots coach. As a Pats fan. I’m forever thankful for him. He is the greatest coach in NFL history and one of the greatest GMs in NFL history. He made some amazing draft picks, free agent signings, trades, and personnel decisions that helped the Pats dominate the league for 2 decades. Their run from 2001-2018 has never been done before and never will be done again. Anyone who thinks the past 4 years have diminished Bill’s legacy is a casual fan who doesn’t know football. We were all spoiled to have him as a coach/GM and I wish him nothing but the best.

This is likely Matthew Slater’s last game too. The fact that a guy who was a special teams player has the level of respect that Slate does, shows how great of a player and teammate he is. His play and leadership will be missed.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (38-16 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (39-14-1)

O/U: 0-2 (29-24-1)

Week 18 Prediction

Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)

This will be a great game. At the beginning of the year, who would’ve thought the Dolphins would be competing with the Bills for the division title. Then it all switched, as midway through the year, who would’ve thought the struggling Bills would be able to challenge the Dolphins for the division title. But here we are. This game is as high stakes as a regular season game can be. I think the Bills are the better team and win the game, cover (-2.5), and over (48) hits.

New England Patriots (4-12) @ New York Jets (6-10)

A disastrous and painful year for both teams comes to an end this week. The Pats have finally crumbled to rock bottom Post-Brady and this might be the last game Belichick coaches for the Pats. The Jets thought they would be competing for a Super Bowl until their 4th offensive snap of the year. The fact they won 6 games shows how good their defense and some of their offensive playmakers are. I think the Jets win, cover (+2.5), and the over (30.5) hits.

Week 17 Reaction

New England Patriots (4-12) @ Buffalo Bills (10-6)

The Bills won as most people expected, but I’m proud of how well the Pats fought. This whole season, they could’ve given up, but hung in there and have played tough as of late. The Pats defense has been amazing this year, the clear weakness is their offense and special teams.

The Bills now can beat the Dolphins next week and earn the division title AND the 2 seed. Everyone was panicking and saying how bad they were just a couple weeks ago, and now they are on track to be right where we thought they’d be at the beginning of this season. Regardless of where they end up, they’re a team no one wants to play in the post season.

Miami Dolphins (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

Wow, just wow. The Ravens keep playing better each week, even against great competition. They continue to surpass expectations and now are the one seed in the AFC and Lamar is the easy NFL MVP. Lamar being a 2 time MVP is an insane accomplishment as he’s only 26. The big thing for him now is playing well in the playoffs, as he and the Ravens have disappointed in the postseason his whole career. The AFC is wide open and this is as good a chance as they have had to win the AFC.

The Dolphins continue to struggle vs good competition and on the road. If they lose next week and are a wild card team – meaning they most likely have to play on the road throughout the playoffs – they won’t make it very far.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (36-16 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (37-14-1)

O/U: 2-0 (29-22-1)

Week 17 Prediction

New England Patriots (4-11) @ Buffalo Bills (9-6)

The Bills are one of the hottest teams and have been rolling as of late. Last time they played the Pats, they overlooked the game and the Pats won. With so much on the line this week, the Bills will not make that mistake again. I think the Bills win, the Pats cover (+14), and the over (40) hits.

Miami Dolphins (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

The Ravens are coming off a massive win and have a chance to clinch the one seed at home. The Dolphins have tended to not play well vs good teams this year. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3.5), and the over (47) hits.