Tag: New England Patriots

NFL Week 5 Predictions

New York Jets (2-2) vs Minnesota Vikings (4-0) in London

The biggest surprise of the first quarter was how good Sam Darnold and the Vikings played. They should continue that this game and win, cover (-2.5), and the over (40.5) will hit.

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Two teams that have played much better than their records. I think they are pretty even, but the Bengals have more to play for and are at home. I think the Bengals win, cover (+2.5), and the over (49) hits.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ New England Patriots (1-3)

This may end up being the worst game of the entire year. The two worst offenses in football face off with the Dolphins desperately missing Tua and the Pats dealing with injury after injury. I don’t know how either team will move the ball down the field. I think the Dolphins win, cover (-1) and the under (36) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Houston Texans (3-1)

This might be the best game of the entire week. Both teams are playing great, but are dealing with lots of injuries. The Bills have less depth than the Texans and have a lot of defensive guys out. I think the Texans win, cover (-1), and the over (47) hits.

NFL Week 4 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

Despite all their injuries, the 49ers utterly dominate the Pats. This game was never close and the Pats season is looking brutal. They gave up another 6 sacks today to make it 17 this year and got out gained 405 yards to 206. Even when the Pats pull off a cool trick play, it gets called back for a nonexistent block in the back. The one bright spot is that Christian Gonzalez continues to look amazing.

Injuries still may hurt the 49ers long term. Warner and Kittle aggravated prior injuries and McCaffrey, Hargrave, Greenlaw, and Hufanga are still on IR or out. They have the best roster in the league, but for the time being Purdy and Shanahan will have to carry the team. The fact that the 49ers are still playing pretty well and guys like Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings are making big contributions is impressive.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

The Chargers put up a fight, but the Chiefs always find a way to pull out a win. Patrick Mahomes is now 12-0 when his team is down by exactly 10 points in a game which is a crazy stat. It also must feel good for Chiefs fans to see Kelce play great.

On the other hand, the injury to Rashee Rice might end his season. That would be a devastating blow to a team already dealing with extended injuries to RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Hollywood Brown. Rice was their only player with over 100 yards receiving entering the game and he had over 200 yards more than the next closest guy.

The Chargers will be fine long term once they get guys back.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

The Ravens played exactly how they want to. If they play like that all season, they can beat anyone. Derrick Henry is a future Hall of Famer and he looks as good as he ever has. He’s so big and fast that tackling him must be the least fun thing ever.

On a separate note, John Harbaugh is an overrated coach. He never seems to fully understand how the NFL rules work – like when he called a timeout when he wasn’t able to on Sunday night – then he cries or complains as if he isn’t in the wrong.

The Bills will be okay, but in a year where the AFC is wide open, it’s concerning another contender beat them so badly.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (9-4 This Season) (47-20 All-Time)

Spread: 1-2 (8-5) (47-19-1)

O/U: 1-2 (6-7) (35-31-1)

NFL Week 4 Predictions

New England Patriots (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Two teams with the same record and who are dealing with many injuries but who couldn’t be more different. The 49ers are pissed off and need a win, and should easily be able to handle the Pats. The 49ers will win, cover (-10.5), and the under (40.5) will hit.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers were rolling until last week and now things are looking dire. Nearly every one of their star players is dealing with injuries this week. The Chiefs have looked off at times but are still 3-0 and are pretty healthy. I think the Chiefs win, cover (-7.5), and the under (40) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

The Bills are absolutely rolling, as they tend to so during the month of September. The Ravens saved their season from going off the rails last week, but still need to keep things from falling apart. I think the Bills win, cover (+2.5), and the over (46.5) hits.

NFL Week 3 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-2) @ New York Jets (2-1)

The score did not reflect how utterly dominated the Pats were this game. They were out gained 400 to 139, had the ball for under 20 minutes, and gave up 7 sacks. The one silver lining is now we get a mini bye week so guys can get healthy and the team can (hopefully) regroup.

It’s sad to say but the Jets are much better than the Pats right now. Aaron Rodgers looks like his old self. He was avoiding pressure, throwing on the run, and slinging it with ease. The Jets RB duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is great and Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams give Rodgers a good receiving core.

The Pats on the other hand, have very little talent offensively. As we have mentioned, when the Pats get behind in a game and NEED to pass the ball, they simply cannot do it. The only way this offense is effective is if they can consistency run the ball and impose their will. They quickly went down 14-0 and the game was basically over at that point.

Drake Maye coming in was a nice surprise. He showed his toughness and athleticism, but we do not want him playing right now. Our offensive line is bad to begin with and is even worse due to all the injuries we have. The Pats also lack effective and consistent skill players to make Maye’s life easier. I think he will gain more from sitting for the time being.

There aren’t many bright spots on the Pats, but Christian Gonzalez is one of them. He is an absolute stud and could be one of the best cornerbacks in the league by the end of the year.

Baltimore Ravens (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

The Ravens pulled out a win by the skin of their teeth to save their season. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson combined for 238 yards rushing and 3 TDs – the kind of production Ravens fans were hoping for when they signed Henry.

The Cowboys deserve credit for almost clawing back from a 28-6 deficit with less than 10 minutes remaining. Tensions are high in Dallas and they need to avoid an internal collapse so early in the year.

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-2) 

The 49ers really should’ve won this game. They outplayed the Rams and had a 10 point lead in the 4th, but ended up blowing the game.

Both teams played well in spite of missing so many pieces, but are still in precarious positions. They need to keep it together while their star offensive players recover from injury. As is, the Seahawks are quietly 3-0 and leading the division.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (7-3 This Season) (45-19 All-Time)

Spread: 3-0 (7-3) (46-17-1)

O/U: 2-1 (5-5) (34-29-1)

Football and Continuity

One thing I often hear former Patriots players and coaches talk about as a key element of success in the NFL is continuity. Brady talks about it all the time and recently Josh McDaniels talked about the importance of it on Julian Edelman’s fantastic podcast Games with Names.

While it is not something that the average fan would think of, it makes sense. Having the same coach means that you have the same culture and overall system in play. Having the same QB means your leader knows the system and is an example for others to follow. And when you have star players like Edelman, Gronk, or Travis Kelce on the team for a long time it further helps spread the culture to incoming free agents and draft picks.

And when a team has continuity while other teams in their division don’t, it makes said continuity even more valuable. During the Brady-Belichick era (2001-2019), the Jets had 5 coaches and 18 starting QBs, the Dolphins had 10 coaches and 20 starting QBs, and the Bills had 9 coaches and 18 starting QBs. Meanwhile the Pats had 1 coach and 4 starting QBs. The other 3 QBs played a total of 19 starts during Brady’s 2008 injury season and 2016 bullshit suspension. No wonder the Pats dominated their division – they actually had consistency while every other team kept having to restart.

The Chiefs have faced similar ineptitude. Since Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chargers have had 4 coaches and 4 starting QBs, the Raiders have had 4 coaches and 6 starting QBs, and the Broncos have had 5 coaches and 11 starting QBs. The Chiefs have had one coach and 4 QBs, with the 3 others QBs starting 4 combined games.

The Pats and Chiefs continuity stands out even more when the teams around them experience a complete lack of it. Continuity leads to continuous success, which experiences compounding interest just like investing does. I feel like this goes for all of life too. Having the same people in place at major positions of a business helps the business run better than if there’s turnover and the business should continue to get better over time. Constantly learning about a subject leads to your knowledge of the topic growing exponentially over time. The Pats and Chiefs are examples of the hidden force of continuity in the NFL.

NFL Week 3 TNF Predictions

New England Patriots (1-1) @ New York Jets (1-1)

The Pats face their biggest rival on the road with both teams sitting at .500. I think Thursday night games suck because it’s so hard for teams to get ready for them after playing Sunday. But if you’re gonna have to play Thursday, the earlier in the season the better. The Pats LB corps and OL is decimated with injuries right now, so it’ll be nice to get a mini bye and guys can have time to recover. I think the Jets will win big, cover (-6), and the under (38.5) hits.

Belichick Coaching Tree vs Shanahan and Reid

I was reading a book about investing recently that advised that just because an investor has success with their investing strategy, does not necessarily mean others can copy it and be successful. That brought to mind the fact that Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, yet his numerous assistants that have been hired to implement the “Patriot Way,” continuously and spectacularly fail to do so with other organizations. The main complaint you hear about these coaches is that they try so hard to be like Bill, but it just doesn’t work for them.

On the flip side, you see the coaching trees of two of Belichick’s contemporaries, Mike Shanahan and Andy Reid, that are dominating the NFL right now. Shanahan and Reid are successful, Hall of Fame level coaches, but still have less Super Bowls combined than Bill does. It is an interesting tale in showing that the most successful strategy is not always the best one to learn from and replicate.

Bill’s Coaching Tree:

  • Romeo Crennel: 32-63
  • Brian Daboll (active): 15-19-1; 1-1 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
  • Brian Flores: 24-25
  • Eric Mangini: 33-47; 0-1 playoff record
  • Josh McDaniels: 20-33
  • Bill O’Brien: 52-48; 2-4 playoff record
  • Matt Patricia: 13-29-1
  • Nick Saban: 15-17
  • Jim Schwartz: 29-51; 0-1 playoff record
  • Joe Judge: 10-23
  • Jerrod Mayo (active): 1-0
  • 3 other coaches combined: 13-18
  • Total: 14 coaches; 257-373-1; 3-7 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
    • NOTE: Above records are the record of coaches after they have served on Bill’s staff. Any record before they coached for Bill is not included.

So far, 14 former assistant coaches have not come close to surpassing Bill’s career win total of 302 regular season wins and have barley made a dent in reaching his 31 playoff victories or 6 Super Bowls.

Jerrod Mayo and Brian Daboll are the only active coaches from Belichick’s tree. They also are coaching two of the worst teams in football so, short term, they probably won’t improve the overall success of Belichick’s tree. However, if they can rebuild their respective teams, they could become exceptions to the rule.

Mike’s tree:

  • Gary Kubiak: 82-75; 5-2 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Matt LaFleur (active): 56-28; 3-4 playoff record
  • Mike McDaniel (active): 21-14; 0-2 playoff record
  • Sean McVay (active): 70-46; 7-4 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Raheem Morris (active): 4-8
  • Kyle Shanahan (active): 64-51; 8-4 playoff record;
  • 3 other Coaches Combined: 91-90; 3-4 playoff record
  • Total: 9 coaches; 388-312; 26-20 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 1 time AP COY

Andy’s tree:

  • Todd Bowels (active): 42-57; 1-2 playoff record
  • John Harbaugh (active): 160-100; 12-10 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Sean McDermott (active): 74-41; 5-6 playoff record
  • Matt Nagy: 34-31; 0-2 playoff record; 1 time AP COY
  • Doug Pederson (active): 60-54-1; 5-3 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Ron Rivera: 102-103-2; 3-5 playoff record; 2 time AP COY
  • 5 others combined: 94-167-1; 1-3 playoff record
  • Total: 11 coaches; 566-553-4; 27-31 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 4 time AP COY

Andy and Mike’s trees account for 10 of the 32 active NFL coaches (including Andy). They have had multiple coaches win Super Bowls and have had their coaching trees well surpass their regular season and postseason win totals.

I think these coaches have tended to work when Bill’s don’t for a couple of reasons. Coming from the Patriots as a new head coach, there is so much pressure in terms of replicating what Bill has done. This already puts Bill’s coaches at a disadvantage because fans automatically compare them to Bill and the Patriots success. Rebuilding a team takes time and fans and ownership need patience.

Belichick is also such a unique coach in the sense that he knows so much about every aspect of football. He is the greatest defensive mind in NFL history, knows a ton about the offensive side of the ball, and has a great understanding of personnel and the salary cap. All this is nearly impossible for a former assistant to copy.

Lastly, Bill had total control of the Pats, as the HC and GM. Most head coaches do not have that kind of power. If a Belichick guy is hired as HC and the GM of their new team is not aligned with what the new coach thinks is the best way to build a roster, then the coach is doomed from the start.

It’s interesting to note that former Belichick coaches have fared much better in college. Saban is the greatest college coach of all time, while Pat Hill and Kirk Ferentz both have had a lot of success. This is likely due to the fact that college coaches have much more control of their team than NFL coaches do.

In terms of how the game has changed, most of Shanahan’s guys are genius offensive coaches, which is what most teams look for in new head coaches nowadays. The way they coach is made for today’s modern game. For Reid, he has produced great coaches on both sides of the ball. I think they learn from Andy how to mainly focus on coaching and work with the front office more than Patriots guys did since Bill was both the HC and the GM.

Maybe Daboll and Mayo will change the narrative. For the time being, Shanahan and Reid’s coaching philosophies are dominating the league and it likely won’t change soon.

NFL Week 2 Reaction

Interesting Note: The NFL averaged a record 21 million viewers per game during Week 1. It’s seems impossible, but the NFL keeps growing and getting more popular. Even the Friday game that aired mainly on Peacock (and also local NBC affiliates in Philadelphia, Green Bay and Milwaukee) averaged 14 million viewers. This is a good sign for the NFL as they push towards more games being on streaming services.

Buffalo Bills (2-0) 31 @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) 10

The Bills simply match up well with Dolphins and consistently beat them. Josh Allen is now 12-2 vs the Dolphins and is their kryptonite. Usually, Allen plays like Superman vs the Fins, but yesterday James Cook and great defense led them to a win. That is good news for the Bills because they can’t solely rely on Allen to carry them every game.

The biggest question mark for the Bills is who their main weapon in the passing game is. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both have potential, but neither has looked amazing yet. Currently their leading receiver, Khalil Shakir, is under the 100 yard mark for the season. Someone needs to emerge for the Bills to be able to get past the other elite teams in the AFC.

For the Dolphins, this game went as bad as it could possibly go. The worst outcome is the Tua injury and the uncertainty surrounding him. It absolutely sucks to see a great guy like Tua consistently get concussions and take brutal blows to the head. This is now his 4th known concussion in the past 5 years and it’s gotten the point that we are all concerned for his long-term health. The Fins need to be very careful about bringing him back and we wish nothing but the best for him.

Miami needs to figure out how to beat the Bills. They are the two best teams in the AFC East, but the reason the Bills keep winning the division is that they consistently beat the Dolphins. The Tua injury and recovery will have a huge impact on the rest of the season, but the Dolphins still have other issues. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just 65 yards receiving. After they were taken out of the game due to the blowout, they just sat on the bench and looked like they didn’t really care. That was a moment they needed to continue to be leaders, especially with Tua out of the game, and they failed to step up.

Seattle Seahawks (2-0) 23 @ New England Patriots (1-1) 20

The Pats welcomed back Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler. Shoutout to him for making the greatest play in NFL history and giving Pats fans a moment to remember for ever. Also shoutout to the 20 other players who came for a Super Bowl XLIX reunion weekend. That 2014 team was one of my favorite Pats teams ever.

Rhamondre Stevenson and the rushing attack continues to carry our offense. Ja’Lynn Polk getting his first TD is big for his confidence. Hunter Henry was a beast today and we’ll need that to continue. Defensively, CB Christian Gonzalez and DE Keion White have both looked great through 2 games

The Pats offense still suffers from a lack of explosiveness. If they get behind the sticks and have to pass on 2nd and long or 3rd and long, they are ineffective. Likewise, if they get down in a game and have to throw the ball, they are screwed. These are the problems we have dealt with since Brady left. The hope is that Maye and the young WRs we have can eventually fix that. They still need to draft, trade for, or sign another good weapon or two to get where they need to be.

The Pats could’ve won this game if not for mistakes. A bad 2 minute drill led to the Seahawks getting the ball and a FG at the end of the first half. A blown coverage led to a long TD for DK Metcalf. They also had a FG blocked at the end of the game that could’ve won them the game.

Overall, I’m pleasantly surprised by the Patriots play the first two weeks. We have been competitive vs two teams that are much better than us. Our defense and rushing attack have been tremendous.

The Seahawks are a good team and have weapons all over the field. Three good WRs, two solid RBs, and a solid TE combined with an above average QB in Geno Smith make them a formidable offense.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) 25 @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) 26

These teams play each other so well and their games are always entertaining. The Bengals deserved to win today, but what makes Mahomes and the Chiefs so good is that they pull out wins even when they get outplayed. The Bengals had chances to put the Chiefs away, but let them hang around and it cost them.

Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson is so underrated. He’s one of the best pass rushers in the league and was THE BEST player on the field Sunday. He had two sacks, drew so many penalties, and put so much pressure on Mahomes. KC’s offensive line did not play well and will need to clean it up.

The key drive of the game was the Burrow fumble drive. The Bengals got a highlight reel interception and had all the momentum and a five point lead. Mike Gesicki dropped a perfect pass on first down that would’ve gotten them another first down and kept the momentum going. Instead Burrow ends up fumbling and the Chiefs recovered and retook the lead. That was a drive the Bengals needed to take advantage of and they didn’t.

Mahomes is a wizard at somehow winning these types of games. Even on 4th and 16, I think we all expected that to go the Chiefs way and it did. That was a bad penalty by the Bengals, but Mahomes deserves a lot of credit. He threw a great pass to Rice and it put pressure on the defense that caused the penalty. Mahomes was terrible today, but still great in the clutch.

Speaking of clutch, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is the 2nd most clutch kicker of all time behind Adam Vinateri. This guy seems to always come through in big moments. Just like Brady’s legacy wouldn’t have been the same without Vinateri, Mahomes’s legacy wouldn’t be the same without Butker.

For the 3rd straight year, the Bengals fall to 0-2. They’ll be fine and normally start slow, but losing this game hurts in case it impacts home field advantage. At least the Bengals know they can come into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs.

I’m not sure how Rashee Rice is playing after all of his incidents this offseason, but he has been huge for the Chiefs. On the flip side, Travis Kelce needs to get it going. 4 catches on 7 targets for 39 yards through two games is not ideal.

The Bengals need to pay Ja’Marr Chase. He’s clearly frustrated and it’s creating an unnecessary headache for them. Pay him and let him ball out.

Other

I gotta say, you have to feel good for Baker Mayfield. He’s gotten so much shit through his career and gone through some ups and downs, so it’s great to see him play well. He seems like a great teammate and locker room guy.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 3-0 (5-2 This Season) (43-18 All-Time)

Spread: 2-1 (4-3) (43-17-1)

O/U: 0-3 (3-4) (32-28-1)

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) @ New England Patriots (1-0)

A rematch of one of the greatest Super Bowls in NFL history…

Sorry, I’m just trying to remember the glory days of being a Pats fan. In the present, the Seahawks are missing their starting RB Kenneth Walker and starting RT George Fant. This should hurt their physicality in a game where they will need it. I expect this to be a low scoring, smash mouth football game because that’s how the Pats like to play. I think the Seahawks will still pull out a win, the Pats will cover (+3.5), and the under (38.5) hits.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

One of the best rivalries in football right now gets back underway. It’s as contentious as ever with Ja’Marr Chase saying Cincy is the team to beat in the AFC and another Bengals player saying all Xavier Worthy can do is run fast in a straight line. Joe Burrow is 3-1 vs Mahomes in his career, so it’s understandable why the Bengals feel good, but these comments will only fire up the Chiefs more.

Both teams are likely missing their number 2 WRs, but this should still be an exciting game like it usually is. I think the Bengals will be a great team by the end of the year, but they always get off to slow starts and Burrow is still healing and getting back into the swing of things. The Chiefs will win, cover (+6), and the under (48) will hit.

In Defense of Haason Reddick

The Hasson Reddick situation is a weird one. Like many players before him, he wanted a new contract before the last year of his current one. The Eagles decided to trade him to the Jets for a conditional 3rd rounder at the end of March instead of paying him. What’s unusual is that the Jets have still not agreed to a contract extension with him, despite giving up assets to get him. In fact, FOX NFL reporter Jordan Schultz said that the Jets have not talked to him since his introductory press conference. SIX MONTHS OF NOT TALKING!?! Only the Jets could pull of something like that.

I am normally in favor of a player not holding out. However, in this case I see where Reddick is coming from. He is an elite edge rusher and has the 4th most sacks in the NFL since 2020. Edge rusher is one of the most valuable positions in the sport and elite edge rushers get massive deals. Haason Reddick has not gotten one of those massive deals yet, despite playing so well the past 4 years. In his career, he has made just over $50 million. That’s obviously a ton of money. However, the best pass rushers in the league are making over $30 million per year and getting over $100 million guaranteed at signing. I’m not saying Reddick will get that kind of money, but he can reasonably expect to get a deal around 3 years for $60 million total and $40 million guaranteed. That would almost double his career earnings. Furthermore, this is probably the last big contract he will ever have the chance to sign since he turns 30 this month. That means it’s now or never for him.

Playing such a sought after position, the fact that the Jets traded a high draft pick for him, and the fact that the Jets are vying for a playoff spot gives him leverage. The Jets eventually either have to pay him or trade him to another team that will so they can recuperate their losses. If he plays, he could lose all that leverage by getting hurt or having a down year, which would likely ensure that he never gets the massive deal he could get now. So, while its a weird situation, I get why he’s doing what he’s doing.

And a little piece of advice to the Jets: If you’re going to trade a high draft pick for a player who you KNOW wants a new contract, try to have a deal in place BEFORE you trade for him OR be willing to pay him what he wants. The Eagles let the Jets negotiate with Reddick before they traded for him. Even though they couldn’t come to an agreement, they STILL traded for him. And then after all that, it’s not like they have been in back and forth negotiations all offseason. Instead, they haven’t talked to him in SIX MONTHS and now find themselves in an embarrassing situation that looks bleak for them.

Will the the Jets will ever learn from their mistakes and cease to be one of the worst franchises in all of sports? As a Pats fan, I certainly hope not and as someone with a brain, I’m willing to bet they never will.

J-E-T-S JETS GONNA JETS.