1. Detroit Lions (10-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
3. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
4. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
8. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
10. Houston Texans (7-5)
1. Detroit Lions (9-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
3. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
4. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
7. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
9. Houston Texans (7-4)
10. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
1. Detroit Lions (8-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
3. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
4. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
7. Washington Commanders (7-3)
8. San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
10. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
So much success in the NFL is based on where you play, especially at quarterback. No matter how much talent you have, a terrible organization, coach, and team can derail a career. Now that we know where the top 6 QBs and a couple other top prospects are playing, below I predict how their careers will turn out.
Caleb Williams:
Going to Chicago has historically been where careers go to die for QBs. However, if one QB can buck that trend, it’s Williams. He is so talented and the fact that his pro comparisons are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes tells you how good he is. Unlike with Justin Fields, the Bears have actually done a great job of surrounding him with amazing weapons and a solid Oline. How great he will be will come down to how well the coaching staff develops him. Regardless, the Bears history of never having a QB throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs will end soon.
I think he will be a really good to great QB in the NFL. He will make multiple Pro Bowls and help the Bears compete in a really tough division. My main apprehension with him is he seems like a diva type player. That’s fine with wide receivers like TO and OBJ, but when it comes to quarterback, that type of personality tends to not work out. Look at guys in the league who are star QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc. They are not controversial and outspoken personalities. They always say the right things and are tremendous leaders. I just get the vibe that Caleb will not be a great leader and might causes some issues off the field similar to Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers. Once again, I think he’ll be really good to great, but will definitely cause some headaches for the Bears.
Jayden Daniels:
It’s great to see another LSU QB have a massive progression, win the Heisman, and be a top pick in the draft. That shows how great his work ethic is. His athleticism is off the charts and he will be one of the most athletic QBs in the league right away. It’s also reassuring that Daniels put up the numbers he did while playing in the best conference in college. He will be able to make an immediate impact and having an OC like Kliff Kingsbury is also a plus.
My one apprehension with him is that he is not super well built. This is something that can be fixed, but with a terrible Oline and being a guy that runs so much, it could be an issue.
Overall, he has a pretty good group of weapons around him with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson at WR and Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr at RB. I think he has an average to solid career as a starter, but is not anything special.
Drake Maye:
I have super high hopes for Maye. He was my favorite QB in this draft, so the fact the Pats got him at #3 is a steal in my opinion. He reminds me a lot of Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert in terms of his combination of size, athleticism, and arm talent. He will just have turned 22 at the start of next season and will have time to develop under Jacoby Brissett. He is extremely tough, is a great kid, and played well through some perseverance and tough situations last year.
The biggest question with Maye has nothing to do with him, but the Patriots. First off, they have the worst roster in the league, especially when it comes to Oline and WR. They drafted some wide receivers and offensive lineman after Maye, but they still need to surround him with weapons and guys who can block. Also, how will the coaches develop him? Jerrod Mayo is a defensive coach so it will mainly be the responsibility of Alex Van Pelt, who is relatively unproven.
I believe he will develop into the Patriots franchise quarterback. He has the tools to succeed in New England, with a big frame and big arm that will serve him well in the terrible Foxboro weather. He obviously won’t be Tom Brady, but I think he can be a better version of Drew Bledsoe. He should be a multiple time Pro Bowler and lead the Pats back to contention for years to come.
Michael Penix Jr:
Easily the biggest shocker of the draft. I was initially shocked by what they did, but the Falcons explaining why they did it helped me make more sense of it. I just don’t agree with their reasoning.
Penix is going to be 24 before the season starts and is maybe the most “pro-ready” QB prospect in the draft. But they drafted him to be the developmental, eventual starter. He should have some good weapons around him when he does start, but when will that be?
They owe Kirk Cousins a ton of money and realistically can’t get out of the contact until 2026 when Penix with be 26 himself. Cousins isn’t amazing but he’s a good enough starter who probably won’t play himself out of the position. With all the uncertainty and an odd situation, I think Penix doesn’t end up being a long-term starter in the league.
J.J. McCarthy:
I like McCarthy, but easily think he was the most overrated player this draft. Compared to the other 5 QBs taken, I think he easily was the worst prospect and was benefited by his team more than any of them. With that being said, he is going to basically the perfect situation. He has a really good offensive coach in Kevin O’Connell, the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson, a top 3 TE in TJ Hockenson, one of the best young WRs in the league in Jordan Addison, and new RB Aaron Jones. They even have a good offensive line. Furthermore, McCarthy can develop behind Sam Darnold if needed.
I think McCarthy will have a career similar to the man he is replacing – Kirk Cousins. His situation is just too good to be a complete bust. I see him putting up solid numbers but not being a guy who can win his team big games and take them far in the playoffs.
Bo Nix:
Nix lands in a spot with a good head coach, but a team that really lacks weapons. He’s accurate and has a ton of experience, but I just don’t think he has that high of a ceiling. Sean Payton has also been very impatient and critical of his QB and team since taking over and I don’t think that’s a great situation for any rookie QB. I think Nix ends up playing a good bit as a rookie, but I don’t think his career will mount to much and he won’t be a long-term starter.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
I think he is the best player in this class and the most exciting by far. Getting to play for a good QB in Kyler is also huge for him. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and should be an absolute stud for years to come.
Brock Bowers:
I think Bowers fits into the Raiders mold well. The biggest question is who is gonna be the QB throwing him the ball and how good will they be. However, he’s so talented that he should make an immediate impact and he has other weapons around him so defenses can’t just key in on him. He should be a long-term starter and make a handful of Pro Bowls.
Other Quick Points
With 6 QBs taken in the first round and all these other amazing offensive players at marquee positions like WR and OT, I think this draft will go down in history as one of the best ever.
The fact that round 1 of the NFL draft had a higher average viewership than last year’s NBA finals once again shows why football is the king of sports in the US.
Xavier Worthy should be a great pick for Chiefs. He fits in so well with Mahomes and that offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their WR corps into one of the better ones in the league in just one year, showing why they are the dynasty that they are.
It’s still so early, but the Bears – Panthers trade from last year might go down as the worst trade in NFL history. If Bryce Young ends up being a bust, while Caleb is a stud that’s bad enough. But on top of that, the Bears got one of the best WRs in the league, a starting tackle, a starting CB, and still have another 2nd round pick next year. This is something to keep an eye on.
Having a star edge rusher or interior defensive lineman who can wreak havoc is one of the most sought after weapons teams look for. Thankfully, there has never been more talent at these positions than there is now. Below is my ranking of these players:
1. TJ Watt EDGE, Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Myles Garret EDGE, Cleveland Browns
3. Micah Parsons EDGE, Dallas Cowboys
4. Aaron Donald, IDL, Los Angeles Rams
5. Nick Bosa EDGE, San Francisco 49ers
6. Chris Jones, IDL, Kansas City Chiefs
7. Maxx Crosby, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders
8. Khalil Mack, EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers
9. Trey Hendrickson EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Aidan Hutchinson EDGE, Detroit Lions
New England Patriots (1-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)
Since last year, I have thought Bailey Zappe gives the Pats a better chance to win than Mac Jones. But the fact he was waived after the preseason, demoted to 3rd string today, and that Bill won’t play him despite Mac’s awful play means he’s probably not very good. All Pats fans can hope is that we get the number 1 pick. #RoadtoCalebWilliams
When the Pats go down just one possession, it feels like they are out of the game. And when they have a 3rd down longer than 5 yards, it seems impossible to get. It took them 19 minutes to get a first down and they had negative yards til the beginning of the 2nd quarter. All of this to tell you the Pats awf(ul)ense stinks. Not only is the play bad, but they are undisciplined with stupid penalties. The Pats first drive perfectly sums up their season:
It’s also hard to swallow that the Pats wouldn’t pay Jakobi Meyers 11 mil a year and 21 mil guaranteed over 3. He has more receiving yards than any Pats player this year despite missing a game.
The Pats easily could’ve won this game once Brian Hoyer came in at the start of the 2nd half. As any Pats fan can tell you, he isn’t very good- but still outplayed Mac Jones.
Dallas Cowboys (4-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-3)
A back and forth game ends with a Cowboys win. The Chargers had a chance to win if not for some inefficient red zone trips.
Betting Picks Results
Game: 2-0 (16-8 Overall)
Spread: 2-0 (19-5)
O/U: 1–1 (12-11-1)
New England Patriots (1-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)
The Patriots come into the game fighting to not be the worst team in the league. The Raiders aren’t that good but have much more talent than the Pats. I think Belichick knows how to coach against Josh McDaniels and Jimmy G but that won’t help the Pats horrid offense. The Raiders will win, cover (+3), and the under will hit (41.5).
Dallas Cowboys (3-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
The Cowboys flopped last week and now are looking to rebound. And with the Chargers coming off a bye, I think a lot of points will be scored. The Cowboys will win, cover (-2), and the over (50.5) will hit.
What makes an NFL team a dynasty in the Super Bowl Era? You often hear dynasty talk when it comes to the NBA but not as much with the NFL. To me, there are four clear-cut dynasties (in order from best to worst): 1. 2001-2018 New England Patriots 2. 1981-1994 San Fransisco 49ers 3. 1974-1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 4. 1992-1995 Dallas Cowboys.
My loose criteria for a dynasty is at least 3 Super Bowls in a 6-year span, but a dynasty can be longer. For example, given that Brady and Belichick were at the helm for all six Super Bowls and that the fact that the Patriots consistently were contenders and made Super Bowls (never went more than 4 yrs w/o making a Super Bowl) I consider them a dynasty. The 49ers had two different quarterbacks and coaches, but George Seifert took over and won while Joe Montana was still the quarterback and players like Jerry Rice played and won with both coaches and quarterbacks so there’s enough similarity to include that 5th championship in the dynasty. The Steelers and Cowboys make the list because they fit my original criteria.
After those four, the case can be made for some other teams based off one’s personal criteria.
The 1960-1967 Packers won 5 championships in 8 years and made another in that span. However, only the last two were Super Bowls and the other 3 were NFL championships in the pre-Super Bowl era so I didn’t include them.
The 1971-1973 Dolphins won two Super Bowls and made three in a 3-year span. Winning two Super Bowls in a short period of time makes you a great team, but not a dynasty.
The team that comes the closest to a dynasty but is just short is the 1976-1983 Oakland/LA Raiders who won three Super Bowls in eight years. Had they kept the same coach and/or quarterback throughout all of their titles I would be inclined to put them at number 5 on my list. However, there is too little similarity from their first title to their third title for me to include them.
The last team I considered putting on the list was the 1982-1991 Washington Redskins. They won 3 titles and made another in that 10-year span. They have decent similarities with the same coach and few of the same players on all three teams such as Hall of Fame WR Art Monk. However, the fact that all three were so spread out (5 years between the 1st and 2nd title and 4 years between 2nd and 3rd title), they weren’t dominant throughout the entire run (three straight years finishing third in their division from 88-90), and that there was a different quarterback on all three title-winning teams is what keeps them off of my list.
Overall, the definition of a dynasty varies from person to person. Regardless of whether or not the teams above are considered dynasties, they were great teams that will go down in history as some of the best ever.
With the regular season approaching, below are some bold predictions I have for this upcoming season:
I have long been a Justin Fields guy and always thought he should’ve been the 2nd QB taken in his draft. Every elite QB who was drafted in the past 10 years has put it together by the end of Year 3. Fields enters Year 3 and I think he puts it all together this season, throws for at least 3,000 yards and 25 TDs, and makes his first Pro Bowl.
Ron Rivera will get fired after this year. He has not posted a winning season in 3 years and won’t this year as the roster isn’t very talented outside of WR and D-Line. With a new ownership group that is even considering changing the team name again, they probably want to clean house and build the team in their vision.
The Packers will finish last in their division for just the 11th time in 103 seasons. That shows how good this franchise has been in its history, but this is a reset year for them.
This will be Bill Belichick’s last season as the Patriots coach. I think another mediocre season leads to Bill and the Pats deciding to part ways. I also think Josh McDaniels gets fired this year and returns to coach the Patriots. The Raiders will be the worst team in their division and will want to rebuild and move in a different direction. With Belichick leaving the Pats, I think they call on McDaniels to be their next coach.
Justyn Ross will have a great season and establish himself as a starter on the Chiefs. Ross has the talent, as he led the 2018 National Champion Clemson Tigers in receiving as a freshman. He made a remarkable comeback in college from a congenital fusion of two vertebrae in his neck and also dealt with a foot injury last year that cost him the season. He had an impressive training camp and preseason and now gets to make a name for himself for a team with the best coach/QB in the league, who also don’t have a clear cut star wide receiver.
Russell Wilson will double his TD passes from last year and come back to form. Wilson is not washed, last year was a fluke. With a great offensive coach in Sean Payton, Wilson is primed to get back on his Hall of Fame trajectory.
Jahan Dotson will have 1,000 yards receiving this year despite the QB uncertainty in Washington. He has tons of talent and will benefit from Terry Mclaurin seeing double teams.
Chase Young will bounce back from injuries to have double digit sacks and play himself into a massive contract. There’s a reason he was a number 2 overall pick and the DROY. He is so talented and will benefit from playing on the best D-line in the league.
Jared Goff will throw 30 TDs this year. He has surpassed expectations as the QB for the Lions and should put up big numbers in a high powered Lions offense.
Kyle Pitts will have another Pro Bowl season, doubling his yardage total from last year. He’s so talented and the best receiving option on the Falcons, so I see him bouncing back.
This is more of a long term prediction, but I think Anthony Richardson will end up being the best QB from the 2023 class. Richardson will be a work in progress right now, but his raw athletic skills remind me of Josh Allen and I think new coach Shane Steichen helps him realize his potential.
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