NFL Week 8 Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)

Two teams that have had up and down seasons, but still have enough hope and talent to do something this year. The Bengals have more to play for and I think they win, cover (-2.5), and the over (47.5) hits.

New York Jets (2-5) @ New England Patriots (1-6)

A hectic week in New England overshadows the fact that we actually have a game this weekend. Between former coaches and players commenting on Mayo’s “soft” comment and half our wide receiver room acting out, I can’t imagine this team is that focused. Oh, and our offensive line is still ravaged by injuries. I think the Jets win, cover (-7), and the over (41) hits.

Buffalo Bills (5-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

The Bills travel across the country for a big game with the Seahawks. Despite the long trip, I think they win, cover (-3), and the over (46) hits.

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-4)

What a difference a year can make. Last year, both of these teams were 2 of the 3 best in the NFC. This year, they are fighting just to make the playoffs. I think the Cowboys win, cover (+4), and the under (47) hits.

15 Minute Blitz Episode 2

Episode 2 of the pod:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3zLVws3ZzCXbU9OtbOQiDD

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

NFL Week 7 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-6) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

Leave it to the Pats to make the Jags look good this year. This completely was a game the Pats could have won.

Overall, they got beaten physically. The defense got ran all over and the offense couldn’t run the ball.

On special teams, out kicking the coverage led to a long return TD.

Outside of Maye and the passing game, this team played bad today. On the flip side, it’s nice seeing that our offense can finally produce big plays. There’s a lot to build on.

Jerrod Mayo is starting to worry me as a coach. Going for 2 made absolutely no sense, when the Pats could have kicked an extra point and made it a one possession game. The decision to go for 2 and not get it, completely changed the dynamic of the game and makes it so much harder to win.

I also don’t like that every time the camera shows Mayo, he seems to have an annoyed look on his face, he shows no emotion, and never appears to be talking to any of his players or coaches. If your team is constantly losing, at least try to keep up their spirits instead of pouting on the sideline.

He called out the team after the game and said they were soft. We’ll see if that moralizes or demoralizes the Pats.

Houston Texans (5-2) @ Green Bay Packers (5-2)

Stroud struggled a lot this game, but the Texans still nearly pulled this one out. The Packers came through and won, which is a necessity for them in the stacked NFC North.

Detroit Lions (5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-1)

The Lions continue to show they are the best team in the league. They can beat you in so many ways and pulled off another win in a great back and forth game.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-4)

Wow. That is all I can say about the Chiefs. They are the new Patriots, in the sense that they can change their identity and win any way. They used to be a high powered offensive team. Now they have morphed into a team that runs the ball well and plays amazing defense. Mahomes does’t put up gaudy stats, but makes the big plays when he needs to. Despite losing their top running back and top wide receiver, the train keeps chugging on.

The craziest stat to show how good the Chiefs have been defensively is that today they scored 28 points, which is the most they’ve scored in the last 16 games they’ve played. They are 13-3 in those games. Scary for the rest of the league.

The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan fall to 0-5 vs Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Both teams dealt with tons of injuries today, but the Niners did not get through it like the Chiefs did. Defensively, you can only shake your head. They held Mahomes to a QB Rating of 44.4 and still lost by 10 points. They have very little room for error, given their record, if they want to make the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3)

The Ravens keep on rolling and Lamar is once again the MVP front-runner. This team is so good in all facets of the game and, dare I say, the best team in the AFC right now. I know Lamar and Co. have struggled vs the Chiefs. But guess what? Tom Brady and the Patriots started off 6-0 vs Peyton Manning including 2-0 in the postseason. The rest of their careers after that? Manning went 6-5 including 3-0 in the playoffs (all AFC Championship games). So just because Mahomes has his number now, doesn’t mean that will continue forever.

The Bucs night started off well with a 10-0 lead and Mike Evans scoring his 100th career receiving TD. Evans is the 9th WR to ever have 12,000 yards receiving and 100 TDs. Despite being so underrated, he’s going to Canton.

After that, things fell apart with Baker throwing some bad picks, the Bucs blowing their lead, and Evans and Godwin leaving with injuries. Evans looks like he’ll be week to week, but Godwin might be out for the year. This could be a massive blow to the Bucs playoff chances.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 3-2 (18-8 This Season) (56-24 All-Time)

Spread: 3-2 (17-8-1) (56-22-2)

O/U: 2-3 (13-13) (42-37-1)

NFL Week 7 Predictions

New England Patriots (1-5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

The Pats head to London in a game they could actually win this year. Drake Maye has given this team all kinds of hope and hopefully the team continues to grow. We’re dealing with lots of injuries on the offensive line once again and Rhamondre might not play. I think the Pats win, cover (+6), and the over (42) hits.

Houston Texans (5-1) @ Green Bay Packers (4-2)

A great matchup between two up and coming teams. The Texans are dealing with tons of injuries to their defense. I think the Packers win, the Texans cover (+3), and the over (48.5) hits.

Detroit Lions (4-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

A matchup of the two best teams in the NFC. I think the Lions win, cover (+1.5), and the under (50.5) hits.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3)

A Super Bowl rematch as the Niners biggest tormentor comes to Santa Clara. The Chiefs have played well in spite of injuries to great offensive players. I think the Niners get revenge, cover (-2), and the over (47) hits.

Baltimore Ravens (4-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)

One of the best primetime games of the year so far. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3.5), and the over (49.5) hits.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 0-0 (15-6 This Season) (53-22 All-Time)

Spread: 0-0 (14-6-1) (53-20-2)

O/U: 0-0 (11-10) (40-34-1)

NFL Week 6 Reaction

Washington Commanders (4-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

The Ravens keep steamrolling along. Both QBs balled out in this game and both teams have bright futures ahead this season and beyond. Derrick Henry playing so good even at age 30 is so much fun to watch. He passed 10,000 yards rushing and is closing in on 100 TDs. He is a future Hall of Famer.

Houston Texans (5-1) @ New England Patriots (1-5)

Those red uniforms absolutely POP in Fall New England weather.

I don’t understand why the Pats continue to defer. They CANNOT play from behind. They need to be tied or have the lead so they can run the ball, grind out drives, and set the tone. It’s ridiculous. They let the Texans get the ball and score, then went 3 and out, then let the Texans score again. And the game was over after two possessions.

The Pats lack of discipline and penalties is absurd. You are bad enough as is, stop giving other teams more chances. So many good plays they make are negated by dumb penalties.

Drake Maye is so athletic and showed flashes of why we drafted him so high. That throw to Kayshon Boutte was Boutte-ful (sorry). We have not had a throw like that since Brady was QB and it feels so good to finally see a long, explosive play. His ability to keep plays alive with his feet and scramble is huge too and is helping our offense look more modern.

Yes, he had three TOs but had some deep passes, 3 passing TDs, and a handful of yards rushing. This was the first time we scored over 20 points and had a 200 yard passer. It feels so nice to have an offense again. It was a great debut overall and given how bad our O-line and skill players are and how good the Texans are, I’d give the debut an 8/10.

Sadly, the O-line is still terrible and we were dealt even more injuries today. Drake Maye and Antonio Gibson consistently never had a chance on passing and running plays.

Demario Douglas is showing flashes of becoming a good slot guy for the Pats. We haven’t had that since Jakobi Meyers was foolishly not resigned.

I would have liked to see the Pats run a mock two minute drill at the end of the game. You had 3 timeouts and plenty of time, why not use the timeouts and go for a score?

The officials were absolutely awful. A bogus pass interference helped lead to the first TD. Then a missed facemask call preceded Drake Maye getting stripped sacked and the Texans scoring their third TD. It was an embarrassment of a performance by those refs. I don’t get why refs aren’t held accountable for being terrible. If you fine the bad refs that made awful calls and/or suspend them without pay for a game for consistently being awful they might actually be competent at their jobs.

The Texans are really good and might be able to topple the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Detroit Lions (4-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

Blowout Central. The Lions are great this year and look like the best team in the NFC. They are such a well-rounded team and have so many weapons on offense plus the best offensive line in the league.

It just sucks to see what happened to Aidan Hutchinson. It’s awful whenever any player gets a gruesome and brutal injury. Especially so when he’s one of the best players in the league and a leader of a Super Bowl contender. I hope and pray he can make a speedy and full recovery.

Brady said it and it’s true: Why are the Lions pulling out all these great trick plays in a blowout? Save them for a big game that is close in score.

The Cowboys look lost. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, they don’t have another reliable option offensively. Defensively, they are so banged up. This looks like it might be Mike McCarthy’s last year in Dallas.

Buffalo Bills (4-2) @ New York Jets (2-4)

New coach, same old Jets. Another game lost they definitely could have won. Two missed field goals and a bad pick at the end of the game doomed this team.

Even though the Jets season seems close to combustion, they could easily be 4-2 and a top the AFC East. It’s just a matter if they can right the ship of they internally collapse.

The Bills have their ups and downs, but they consistently find ways to win games.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 3-1 (15-6 This Season) (53-22 All-Time)

Spread: 2-1-1 (14-6-1) (53-20-2)

O/U: 3-1 (11-10) (40-34-1)

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Washington Commanders (4-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

Two of the most exciting QBs in the league face off in what should be one of the best games of the weekend. I think the Ravens win, Commanders cover (+7), and the over (51.5) hits.

Houston Texans (4-1) @ New England Patriots (1-4)

Drake Maye makes his NFL debut against one of the best teams in the AFC (GULP!) The Pats should have some early game energy and come out pretty good, but it won’t last long. I think things get ugly and the Texans win, cover (-6.5), and the over (37.5) hits. At least the Pats will look good because they’re wearing their red Pat the Patriot throwbacks aka The Best Uniforms in all of Sports.

Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

The Thanksgiving staples face off just as Fall is getting started. The Lions are better and healthier than the Cowboys. I think they win, cover (-3), and the under (52.5) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-2) @ New York Jets (2-3)

The Jets have had the most Jets week since Bill Belichick resigned on a napkin. I mean literally if any other NFL team had the week the Jets just had, I would be shocked – even the Browns. But since it’s the Jets and they are one of the most poorly run franchises/businesses in the entire world, you just have to shake your head, laugh, and be thankful you aren’t a Jets fan. If you are a Jets fan? At least the Yankees and Mets are still playing and you probably have something else to root for.

Despite my thoughts on the Jets, I think they will win Monday, cover (+2), and the over (41) hits. I think teams with interim coaches get a little bump after their original coach is fired, because it lights a fire under the team. I also think Rodgers will be pissed and come out and play well. Furthermore, the Bills have tons of injuries and the Jets are simply healthier.

NFL Week 4 Reaction

New England Patriots (1-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

Despite all their injuries, the 49ers utterly dominate the Pats. This game was never close and the Pats season is looking brutal. They gave up another 6 sacks today to make it 17 this year and got out gained 405 yards to 206. Even when the Pats pull off a cool trick play, it gets called back for a nonexistent block in the back. The one bright spot is that Christian Gonzalez continues to look amazing.

Injuries still may hurt the 49ers long term. Warner and Kittle aggravated prior injuries and McCaffrey, Hargrave, Greenlaw, and Hufanga are still on IR or out. They have the best roster in the league, but for the time being Purdy and Shanahan will have to carry the team. The fact that the 49ers are still playing pretty well and guys like Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings are making big contributions is impressive.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

The Chargers put up a fight, but the Chiefs always find a way to pull out a win. Patrick Mahomes is now 12-0 when his team is down by exactly 10 points in a game which is a crazy stat. It also must feel good for Chiefs fans to see Kelce play great.

On the other hand, the injury to Rashee Rice might end his season. That would be a devastating blow to a team already dealing with extended injuries to RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Hollywood Brown. Rice was their only player with over 100 yards receiving entering the game and he had over 200 yards more than the next closest guy.

The Chargers will be fine long term once they get guys back.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

The Ravens played exactly how they want to. If they play like that all season, they can beat anyone. Derrick Henry is a future Hall of Famer and he looks as good as he ever has. He’s so big and fast that tackling him must be the least fun thing ever.

On a separate note, John Harbaugh is an overrated coach. He never seems to fully understand how the NFL rules work – like when he called a timeout when he wasn’t able to on Sunday night – then he cries or complains as if he isn’t in the wrong.

The Bills will be okay, but in a year where the AFC is wide open, it’s concerning another contender beat them so badly.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (9-4 This Season) (47-20 All-Time)

Spread: 1-2 (8-5) (47-19-1)

O/U: 1-2 (6-7) (35-31-1)

NFL Week 4 Predictions

New England Patriots (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Two teams with the same record and who are dealing with many injuries but who couldn’t be more different. The 49ers are pissed off and need a win, and should easily be able to handle the Pats. The 49ers will win, cover (-10.5), and the under (40.5) will hit.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers were rolling until last week and now things are looking dire. Nearly every one of their star players is dealing with injuries this week. The Chiefs have looked off at times but are still 3-0 and are pretty healthy. I think the Chiefs win, cover (-7.5), and the under (40) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2)

The Bills are absolutely rolling, as they tend to so during the month of September. The Ravens saved their season from going off the rails last week, but still need to keep things from falling apart. I think the Bills win, cover (+2.5), and the over (46.5) hits.

Football and Continuity

One thing I often hear former Patriots players and coaches talk about as a key element of success in the NFL is continuity. Brady talks about it all the time and recently Josh McDaniels talked about the importance of it on Julian Edelman’s fantastic podcast Games with Names.

While it is not something that the average fan would think of, it makes sense. Having the same coach means that you have the same culture and overall system in play. Having the same QB means your leader knows the system and is an example for others to follow. And when you have star players like Edelman, Gronk, or Travis Kelce on the team for a long time it further helps spread the culture to incoming free agents and draft picks.

And when a team has continuity while other teams in their division don’t, it makes said continuity even more valuable. During the Brady-Belichick era (2001-2019), the Jets had 5 coaches and 18 starting QBs, the Dolphins had 10 coaches and 20 starting QBs, and the Bills had 9 coaches and 18 starting QBs. Meanwhile the Pats had 1 coach and 4 starting QBs. The other 3 QBs played a total of 19 starts during Brady’s 2008 injury season and 2016 bullshit suspension. No wonder the Pats dominated their division – they actually had consistency while every other team kept having to restart.

The Chiefs have faced similar ineptitude. Since Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chargers have had 4 coaches and 4 starting QBs, the Raiders have had 4 coaches and 6 starting QBs, and the Broncos have had 5 coaches and 11 starting QBs. The Chiefs have had one coach and 4 QBs, with the 3 others QBs starting 4 combined games.

The Pats and Chiefs continuity stands out even more when the teams around them experience a complete lack of it. Continuity leads to continuous success, which experiences compounding interest just like investing does. I feel like this goes for all of life too. Having the same people in place at major positions of a business helps the business run better than if there’s turnover and the business should continue to get better over time. Constantly learning about a subject leads to your knowledge of the topic growing exponentially over time. The Pats and Chiefs are examples of the hidden force of continuity in the NFL.

Belichick Coaching Tree vs Shanahan and Reid

I was reading a book about investing recently that advised that just because an investor has success with their investing strategy, does not necessarily mean others can copy it and be successful. That brought to mind the fact that Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, yet his numerous assistants that have been hired to implement the “Patriot Way,” continuously and spectacularly fail to do so with other organizations. The main complaint you hear about these coaches is that they try so hard to be like Bill, but it just doesn’t work for them.

On the flip side, you see the coaching trees of two of Belichick’s contemporaries, Mike Shanahan and Andy Reid, that are dominating the NFL right now. Shanahan and Reid are successful, Hall of Fame level coaches, but still have less Super Bowls combined than Bill does. It is an interesting tale in showing that the most successful strategy is not always the best one to learn from and replicate.

Bill’s Coaching Tree:

  • Romeo Crennel: 32-63
  • Brian Daboll (active): 15-19-1; 1-1 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
  • Brian Flores: 24-25
  • Eric Mangini: 33-47; 0-1 playoff record
  • Josh McDaniels: 20-33
  • Bill O’Brien: 52-48; 2-4 playoff record
  • Matt Patricia: 13-29-1
  • Nick Saban: 15-17
  • Jim Schwartz: 29-51; 0-1 playoff record
  • Joe Judge: 10-23
  • Jerrod Mayo (active): 1-0
  • 3 other coaches combined: 13-18
  • Total: 14 coaches; 257-373-1; 3-7 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
    • NOTE: Above records are the record of coaches after they have served on Bill’s staff. Any record before they coached for Bill is not included.

So far, 14 former assistant coaches have not come close to surpassing Bill’s career win total of 302 regular season wins and have barley made a dent in reaching his 31 playoff victories or 6 Super Bowls.

Jerrod Mayo and Brian Daboll are the only active coaches from Belichick’s tree. They also are coaching two of the worst teams in football so, short term, they probably won’t improve the overall success of Belichick’s tree. However, if they can rebuild their respective teams, they could become exceptions to the rule.

Mike’s tree:

  • Gary Kubiak: 82-75; 5-2 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Matt LaFleur (active): 56-28; 3-4 playoff record
  • Mike McDaniel (active): 21-14; 0-2 playoff record
  • Sean McVay (active): 70-46; 7-4 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Raheem Morris (active): 4-8
  • Kyle Shanahan (active): 64-51; 8-4 playoff record;
  • 3 other Coaches Combined: 91-90; 3-4 playoff record
  • Total: 9 coaches; 388-312; 26-20 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 1 time AP COY

Andy’s tree:

  • Todd Bowels (active): 42-57; 1-2 playoff record
  • John Harbaugh (active): 160-100; 12-10 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Sean McDermott (active): 74-41; 5-6 playoff record
  • Matt Nagy: 34-31; 0-2 playoff record; 1 time AP COY
  • Doug Pederson (active): 60-54-1; 5-3 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Ron Rivera: 102-103-2; 3-5 playoff record; 2 time AP COY
  • 5 others combined: 94-167-1; 1-3 playoff record
  • Total: 11 coaches; 566-553-4; 27-31 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 4 time AP COY

Andy and Mike’s trees account for 10 of the 32 active NFL coaches (including Andy). They have had multiple coaches win Super Bowls and have had their coaching trees well surpass their regular season and postseason win totals.

I think these coaches have tended to work when Bill’s don’t for a couple of reasons. Coming from the Patriots as a new head coach, there is so much pressure in terms of replicating what Bill has done. This already puts Bill’s coaches at a disadvantage because fans automatically compare them to Bill and the Patriots success. Rebuilding a team takes time and fans and ownership need patience.

Belichick is also such a unique coach in the sense that he knows so much about every aspect of football. He is the greatest defensive mind in NFL history, knows a ton about the offensive side of the ball, and has a great understanding of personnel and the salary cap. All this is nearly impossible for a former assistant to copy.

Lastly, Bill had total control of the Pats, as the HC and GM. Most head coaches do not have that kind of power. If a Belichick guy is hired as HC and the GM of their new team is not aligned with what the new coach thinks is the best way to build a roster, then the coach is doomed from the start.

It’s interesting to note that former Belichick coaches have fared much better in college. Saban is the greatest college coach of all time, while Pat Hill and Kirk Ferentz both have had a lot of success. This is likely due to the fact that college coaches have much more control of their team than NFL coaches do.

In terms of how the game has changed, most of Shanahan’s guys are genius offensive coaches, which is what most teams look for in new head coaches nowadays. The way they coach is made for today’s modern game. For Reid, he has produced great coaches on both sides of the ball. I think they learn from Andy how to mainly focus on coaching and work with the front office more than Patriots guys did since Bill was both the HC and the GM.

Maybe Daboll and Mayo will change the narrative. For the time being, Shanahan and Reid’s coaching philosophies are dominating the league and it likely won’t change soon.