Justin Herbert – Wheelhouse Blog

Top 10 QBs

Below are our top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform moving forward.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

The gap between him and everyone else is not a big as it was entering this year. But, if you had to pick one guy, you’re picking Mahomes.

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

He’s one of the most gifted players in NFL history and he’s playing as well as he ever has.

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

He quietly is having his best season ever. The knock on him has always been his turnovers. This year he has 20 TDs and just 4 TOs.

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Despite his teams record, he is putting up great numbers with 20 TDs to just 4 INTs.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Injuries have limited him, but he still is playing great football for the new look Chargers.

6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

This guy simply balls out under the radar. The Lions might be the best team in football and he is a big reason why. He’s completing 74.9% of his passes and has 17 incompletions and 11 TDs his past 5 games.

7. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

In just his 2nd year, he is already a franchise QB. He can lead this team on a great postseason run.

8. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is supremely talented and I’m a big believer in what he can do in the air and on the ground.

9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker loves to prove people wrong and he’s doing that with the Bucs. He’s a little bit of a gunslinger, but’s its works out more than it doesn’t.

10. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

He continues to be an underrated player and is still balling out at age 36.

Start of Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off last year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform moving forward.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Do I even have to explain?

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the modern day Brett Favre. He is an absurd athlete who routinely makes jaw dropping plays. He will also go rouge every now and then and make you ask yourself what the hell he is doing. His 173 total TDs the past 4 years make up for those mistakes.

3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow had a tough year, first dealing with a nagging calf injury that hampered him the first 4 games, then going on IR after the 10th game of the year. During the 5.5 games he was healthy, he threw for 13 TDs and showed how good he is. The only thing that can slow him down is injuries.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and won his 2nd league MVP last year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to play better in the playoffs though.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is insanely talented, but has struggled to win. The lack of coaching and injuries around him in the past is reasonable enough to blame. However, with Jim Harbaugh now his coach, there are no more excuses. He needs to start winning games and making runs in the postseason.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments last year, but the season ended on a bad note. He will need to shake it off this year.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Last season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash this year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games. The uncertainty around the team could spell a tough year.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled last year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was two years before. The $275 m over 5 years suggests the Jags still have 100% belief in him.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind. The Aiyuk and Trent Williams situations could cause complications, but he still has weapons around him.

Post Draft Thoughts

So much success in the NFL is based on where you play, especially at quarterback. No matter how much talent you have, a terrible organization, coach, and team can derail a career. Now that we know where the top 6 QBs and a couple other top prospects are playing, below I predict how their careers will turn out.

Caleb Williams:

Going to Chicago has historically been where careers go to die for QBs. However, if one QB can buck that trend, it’s Williams. He is so talented and the fact that his pro comparisons are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes tells you how good he is. Unlike with Justin Fields, the Bears have actually done a great job of surrounding him with amazing weapons and a solid Oline. How great he will be will come down to how well the coaching staff develops him. Regardless, the Bears history of never having a QB throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs will end soon.

I think he will be a really good to great QB in the NFL. He will make multiple Pro Bowls and help the Bears compete in a really tough division. My main apprehension with him is he seems like a diva type player. That’s fine with wide receivers like TO and OBJ, but when it comes to quarterback, that type of personality tends to not work out. Look at guys in the league who are star QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc. They are not controversial and outspoken personalities. They always say the right things and are tremendous leaders. I just get the vibe that Caleb will not be a great leader and might causes some issues off the field similar to Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers. Once again, I think he’ll be really good to great, but will definitely cause some headaches for the Bears.

Jayden Daniels:

It’s great to see another LSU QB have a massive progression, win the Heisman, and be a top pick in the draft. That shows how great his work ethic is. His athleticism is off the charts and he will be one of the most athletic QBs in the league right away. It’s also reassuring that Daniels put up the numbers he did while playing in the best conference in college. He will be able to make an immediate impact and having an OC like Kliff Kingsbury is also a plus.

My one apprehension with him is that he is not super well built. This is something that can be fixed, but with a terrible Oline and being a guy that runs so much, it could be an issue.

Overall, he has a pretty good group of weapons around him with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson at WR and Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr at RB. I think he has an average to solid career as a starter, but is not anything special.

Drake Maye:

I have super high hopes for Maye. He was my favorite QB in this draft, so the fact the Pats got him at #3 is a steal in my opinion. He reminds me a lot of Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert in terms of his combination of size, athleticism, and arm talent. He will just have turned 22 at the start of next season and will have time to develop under Jacoby Brissett. He is extremely tough, is a great kid, and played well through some perseverance and tough situations last year.

The biggest question with Maye has nothing to do with him, but the Patriots. First off, they have the worst roster in the league, especially when it comes to Oline and WR. They drafted some wide receivers and offensive lineman after Maye, but they still need to surround him with weapons and guys who can block. Also, how will the coaches develop him? Jerrod Mayo is a defensive coach so it will mainly be the responsibility of Alex Van Pelt, who is relatively unproven.

I believe he will develop into the Patriots franchise quarterback. He has the tools to succeed in New England, with a big frame and big arm that will serve him well in the terrible Foxboro weather. He obviously won’t be Tom Brady, but I think he can be a better version of Drew Bledsoe. He should be a multiple time Pro Bowler and lead the Pats back to contention for years to come.

Michael Penix Jr:

Easily the biggest shocker of the draft. I was initially shocked by what they did, but the Falcons explaining why they did it helped me make more sense of it. I just don’t agree with their reasoning.

Penix is going to be 24 before the season starts and is maybe the most “pro-ready” QB prospect in the draft. But they drafted him to be the developmental, eventual starter. He should have some good weapons around him when he does start, but when will that be?

They owe Kirk Cousins a ton of money and realistically can’t get out of the contact until 2026 when Penix with be 26 himself. Cousins isn’t amazing but he’s a good enough starter who probably won’t play himself out of the position. With all the uncertainty and an odd situation, I think Penix doesn’t end up being a long-term starter in the league.

J.J. McCarthy:

I like McCarthy, but easily think he was the most overrated player this draft. Compared to the other 5 QBs taken, I think he easily was the worst prospect and was benefited by his team more than any of them. With that being said, he is going to basically the perfect situation. He has a really good offensive coach in Kevin O’Connell, the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson, a top 3 TE in TJ Hockenson, one of the best young WRs in the league in Jordan Addison, and new RB Aaron Jones. They even have a good offensive line. Furthermore, McCarthy can develop behind Sam Darnold if needed.

I think McCarthy will have a career similar to the man he is replacing – Kirk Cousins. His situation is just too good to be a complete bust. I see him putting up solid numbers but not being a guy who can win his team big games and take them far in the playoffs.

Bo Nix:

Nix lands in a spot with a good head coach, but a team that really lacks weapons. He’s accurate and has a ton of experience, but I just don’t think he has that high of a ceiling. Sean Payton has also been very impatient and critical of his QB and team since taking over and I don’t think that’s a great situation for any rookie QB. I think Nix ends up playing a good bit as a rookie, but I don’t think his career will mount to much and he won’t be a long-term starter.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

I think he is the best player in this class and the most exciting by far. Getting to play for a good QB in Kyler is also huge for him. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and should be an absolute stud for years to come.

Brock Bowers:

I think Bowers fits into the Raiders mold well. The biggest question is who is gonna be the QB throwing him the ball and how good will they be. However, he’s so talented that he should make an immediate impact and he has other weapons around him so defenses can’t just key in on him. He should be a long-term starter and make a handful of Pro Bowls.

Other Quick Points

With 6 QBs taken in the first round and all these other amazing offensive players at marquee positions like WR and OT, I think this draft will go down in history as one of the best ever.

The fact that round 1 of the NFL draft had a higher average viewership than last year’s NBA finals once again shows why football is the king of sports in the US.

Xavier Worthy should be a great pick for Chiefs. He fits in so well with Mahomes and that offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their WR corps into one of the better ones in the league in just one year, showing why they are the dynasty that they are.

It’s still so early, but the Bears – Panthers trade from last year might go down as the worst trade in NFL history. If Bryce Young ends up being a bust, while Caleb is a stud that’s bad enough. But on top of that, the Bears got one of the best WRs in the league, a starting tackle, a starting CB, and still have another 2nd round pick next year. This is something to keep an eye on.

End of Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform moving forward.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Do I even have to explain?

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and won his 2nd league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to play better in the playoffs though.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but the season ended on a bad note. He will need to shake it off next year.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.

On the Bubble:

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I still am a Russ believer. He played well this year despite the fact that he did not have that much talent around him. I think Sean Payton scapegoating him for all of Denver’s woes is laughable. He may not be at his peak anymore, but is still a good starting quarterback.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.

End of Regular Season Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform in the postseason (if applicable) and next year.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

He had his worst season as a pro this year and still led his team to the AFC West title, won 11 games, and threw for 27 TDs. He would be the consensus pick if you were starting an NFL team right now and is dangerous in the postseason.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar balled out and will be the league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to prove himself in the playoffs, but if he does, he will move up this list.

5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert is insanely talented, but cannot win. I know he’s had horrible coaching his first 4 years, but the hope now is that he can get a coach who knows what they’re doing and starting winning big games. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but a great postseason run will launch him up this list.

7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.

10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers

He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.

On the Bubble:

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited. We’ll see how he plays in the playoffs.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.

Midseason Top 10 QBs

Below are my top 10 QBs right now. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead both the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform the rest of this year. Only active QBs are included (i.e. Aaron Rodgers was not considered).

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

He has not looked like his usual self, but is still playing good football. I expect him to only get better and kick it into full gear by the time the playoffs start.

2. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert has once again been great despite lackluster coaching. He will need to continue to play this way if the Chargers have a shot at making the playoffs.

3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow was not healthy the first four games this year and it showed with just 2 TDs. The past 4 games, he has been healthy and showed why he is one of the best QBs in the league with 10 TDs.

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the most physically gifted QB on this list and routinely makes jaw dropping plays. His one downside is he will throw awful interceptions from time to time that make you question his judgement.

5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts has continued to show he is one of the best QBs in the league this season. His play the past 3 games has been spectacular, as he has put up 10 total TDs in that span and should continue to play this way for the remainder of the year.

6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar has been playing his best football since his MVP season in 2019 and the Ravens are buzzing. If he stays healthy and the Ravens continue to win, he could win MVP again this year.

7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence and the Jags have looked shaky on offense at times this year. Despite that, his talent is evident and he should improve the remainder of the year.

8. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

A QB always bears some responsibility when his team is not playing well, but Russ is getting way too much hate. Everyone seems to just assume the Denver roster is filled with good players – it isn’t. Russ has played well despite everything going on around him. Talk of him being the main problem there is ridiculous.

9. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tua is doing a great job of getting the ball to the speedsters around him and he and the Miami offense are putting up big numbers.

10. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

What a comeback story. Goff was cast aside by the Rams and just looked like a bridge QB for a rebuilding Lions team. Now he looks like a legitimate franchise QB again for a great Lions team.

On the Bubble:

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

He still needs to be carried by a great team to be effective and has not been the main reason his team is winning.

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

I did not expect Stroud to be this good, much less this soon. He is playing great football and has led a team that had 3 wins last year to 4 wins already. If he keeps this up he, will crack the top 10 by end of year.

NFL Week 6 Prediction

New England Patriots (1-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)

The Patriots come into the game fighting to not be the worst team in the league. The Raiders aren’t that good but have much more talent than the Pats. I think Belichick knows how to coach against Josh McDaniels and Jimmy G but that won’t help the Pats horrid offense. The Raiders will win, cover (+3), and the under will hit (41.5).

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

The Cowboys flopped last week and now are looking to rebound. And with the Chargers coming off a bye, I think a lot of points will be scored. The Cowboys will win, cover (-2), and the over (50.5) will hit.

Current Quaterbacks Going to the Hall Of Fame

No Doubt

Aaron Rodgers: A four time MVP who throws the prettiest ball of all time. He’ll be a first ballot HOF and no one will bat an eye.

Patrick Mahomes: He is putting up numbers and accolades at a faster pace than any QB ever. It pains me to say, but he will make a run at the NFL GOAT and at minimum should be on the Mt. Rushmore for QBs if he stays healthy.

Likely In

Russell Wilson: Forget last year and the beginning of this year. He’s a nine time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl Champ, an All-Pro, and the QB of a legendary team. I do think he needs one more MVP/OPOY/All-Pro type season to guarantee himself and he has a chance with Sean Payton. The one thing that could keep him out is if his play continues to be this ugly moving forward and our last memories of him are awful play and being overpaid.

Young, but will eventually make it

Justin Herbert: I think his floor is a Dan Marino type career where his team lets him down but he puts up all time numbers. If he can even win one Super Bowl, I think he goes down as a Top 10 QB ever.

Joe Burrow: He is a gamer and a winner and it looks like he’ll have Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase for years to come. I think the Bengals will win at least one Super Bowl and he’ll have many individual accolades.

Missing Out

Josh Allen: His play is absolutely amazing but playing like Superman has its consequences. I think he takes too many hits and it will lead to him having too short of a career to do what he needs to make the Hall.

Matthew Stafford: I don’t get the Hall buzz for Stafford. He has made one Pro Bowl, never been an All-Pro, never been considered a Top 5 QB, and never won a major award. It’s not even a question, he’s out.

NFL Week 3 Reaction

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-3)

The Chargers barely saved their season IN SPITE of their coach Brandon Staley. I love teams being aggressive but he consistently makes dumb calls when going for it on 4th down. His team is so talented that they saved this game and maybe his job. I think eventually Kellen Moore will take over for him.

Games like this are why I think Justin Herbert is right behind Mahomes as the best QB in the league. He’s 6’ 6” 240 lbs, can avoid pressure in the pocket, scramble, make throws on the run from any arm angle, and has a rocket arm. In 52 career games, he has 15,000 yards passing and 100 TDs. Insanely fun to watch.

What do the Vikings do? Kirk Cousins is not the reason this team is losing as he has thrown for 1,075 yards and 9 TDs in three games. But do they want keep in around when he is expensive, old, and has had very little postseason success? I think they should keep him around until the deadline. At that point, if they still suck they can trade him and look to get one of the great new QBs in next year’s draft.

New England Patriots (1-2) @ New York Jets (1-2)

Once again the Patriots defense is amazing and their offense is a let down. Despite grossly out gaining the Jets in yards, the games comes down to a Hail Mary that the Jets almost executed. Mac isn’t good but neither are the skill players around him. Get ready for a lot of unders hitting this season for the Pats.

The Jets are in a brutal spot right now. Zach Wilson sucks but who out there is a better option than him? There’s no good solution.

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Bengals save their season in a much needed game. Something still looks off with the Bengals offense. They are not dynamic as normal and Burrow and the WRs are out of sync. I do like how they put Chase all over the field and really got him the ball. But if Burrow’s injury lingers, this team may continue to struggle.

Those Bengals white out uniforms are absolutely awesome. The end zone and logo also being white was the cherry on top.

The Bengals defense was the star of the game today. They will have to continue playing this way until the offense gets it together.

The Rams have played much better than I thought they would. Once Kupp returns, they could make a run at the playoffs.

Other Thoughts:

Wow the Dolphins put up Madden numbers against the Broncos. The first team since 1966 to put up 70 points and they did it without WR Jaylen Waddle. The fantasy numbers they put up were ridiculous too. RBs De’von Achane (51.3) and Raheem Mostert (45.2) combined for 96.5 points.

Betting Picks This Week

Game: 3-0 (10-7 Overall)

Spread: 3-0 (12-5)

O/U: 0-3 (6-10-1)

NFL Week 3 Preview

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

A battle of talented 0-2 teams. I think this game is close but the Chargers have more riding with Brandon Staley on the hot seat. The Chargers win, cover (+1), and the over (54) hits in a high scoring game

New England Patriots (0-2) @ New York Jets (0-2)

Both teams may be 0-2, but the Pats are a much better team than the Jets right now. I think their frustration over losing two close games to good teams leads to them taking their anger out on the hopeless Jets. The Pats will win, cover (-2.5), and the over (36.5) will hit.

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

The Bengals season is on the line this week. Since 2002, only one team has started 0-3 and made the playoffs. What better team to save their season against than the one that beat them in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The Rams have surprised me with their play so far, but the motivated Bengals should win, cover (-2), and the over (43.5) should hit.