Tag: Football

Rookie QB Strategy

Every time a team drafts a potential franchise QB, the fanbase is pumped up but often gets let down. The truth is, that a huge determinate of a QB’s success is where they end up. Even a guy like Andrew Luck, who was one of the best QB prospects ever, played great for the Colts but had his career shut down due to his front office not being able to protect him. Below is what I think teams should down before/after drafting their future QB.

First, they need to build the team around him. With few exceptions (i.e. Luck or Trevor Lawrence) you can’t just draft a QB onto an awful team and expect things to turn around. It’s much smarter to draft a QB onto a team that has pieces around him. Start with a solid O-Line that can protect him. Then you want 1 or 2 good to great playmakers he can get the ball to and make him look good. Finally, an, at minimum, average defense that won’t lose him games in which he’s played well enough to win.

QBs should play as soon as possible. If a QB isn’t remotely ready or you have a capable guy ahead of him, then I get it. But if he is the best option you have, why not play him and let him get experience? The first year might suck, but if they are going to be a future star, then it should make them better. Trevor Lawrence had Urban Meyer his first year and has still developed into a great QB.

There are 3 types of exits for QBs after you have drafted them. If after one year they show complete ineptitude and are a bad locker room guy, then its time to move on. After year 2, if they have not shown flashes that they can be great, then its time to move on. Finally, by the end of year 3, if they have not developed into a good QB, it is time to move on. Devoting more than 3 years to a guy who isn’t the answer is unwise. Especially because every current star QB who has been drafted the last 10 years, has shown his talent by the end of year 3.

NFL Week 5 Reaction

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) @ Buffalo Bills (3-2) (In London)

As I predicted, the Jags took advantage of having been in London all week. Both teams were sloppy, the Jags were just less sloppy.

New Orleans Saints (3-2) @ New England Patriots (1-4)

The Saints are not that good, the Patriots are just that bad.

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-0)

As predicted, the Cowboys once again flopped horribly after a great showing last week. This game makes it clear that in the NFC there are the 49ers and Eagles then everybody else.

Brock Purdy gives off Tom Brady vibes. Right now, all he has to do is be a great field general just like Brady was his first couple years. He is the perfect QB for this team as he can distribute the ball like a point guard to all the weapons they have. The 49ers are loaded on both sides of the ball and look like the best team in football.

Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-1 (14-8 overall)

Spread: 3-0 (17-5)

O/U: 3-0 (11-10-1)

NFL Week 5 Preview

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1) (In London)

A massive game in terms of AFC seeding. The Bills are probably the best team in the NFL right now and the Jags are starting to look more like themselves. The Jags have the huge advantage of having been in London all week and are more used to playing there than the Bills. I think the Bills win but do not cover (-5.5), and that the under (48.5) hits.

New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ New England Patriots (1-3)

The Saints roster is way more talented than the Pats, but Belichick is a much better coach than Dennis Allen. Both team played awful last week, but the Pats do not have any talent right now and are banged up. The Saints win, cover (+1), and the under (39) hits.

Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0)

The Cowboys are back to being in America’s good graces after killing the Pats last week. That, combined with the 49ers being a better and more physical team, is going to lead to a poor showing from Dallas. The 49ers will win, cover (-3.5), and the over (45) hits.

Odds via DraftKings

Current Quaterbacks Going to the Hall Of Fame

No Doubt

Aaron Rodgers: A four time MVP who throws the prettiest ball of all time. He’ll be a first ballot HOF and no one will bat an eye.

Patrick Mahomes: He is putting up numbers and accolades at a faster pace than any QB ever. It pains me to say, but he will make a run at the NFL GOAT and at minimum should be on the Mt. Rushmore for QBs if he stays healthy.

Likely In

Russell Wilson: Forget last year and the beginning of this year. He’s a nine time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl Champ, an All-Pro, and the QB of a legendary team. I do think he needs one more MVP/OPOY/All-Pro type season to guarantee himself and he has a chance with Sean Payton. The one thing that could keep him out is if his play continues to be this ugly moving forward and our last memories of him are awful play and being overpaid.

Young, but will eventually make it

Justin Herbert: I think his floor is a Dan Marino type career where his team lets him down but he puts up all time numbers. If he can even win one Super Bowl, I think he goes down as a Top 10 QB ever.

Joe Burrow: He is a gamer and a winner and it looks like he’ll have Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase for years to come. I think the Bengals will win at least one Super Bowl and he’ll have many individual accolades.

Missing Out

Josh Allen: His play is absolutely amazing but playing like Superman has its consequences. I think he takes too many hits and it will lead to him having too short of a career to do what he needs to make the Hall.

Matthew Stafford: I don’t get the Hall buzz for Stafford. He has made one Pro Bowl, never been an All-Pro, never been considered a Top 5 QB, and never won a major award. It’s not even a question, he’s out.

NFL Week 4 Reaction

Miami Dolphins (3-1) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1)

As I have said, Tua and the Dolphins are overrated. He’s good enough to get the ball to the abundance of playmakers he has. But do we really trust him to outduel the great AFC QBs come playoff time? Or do we trust him to bring Miami back when they’re down in the playoffs? We saw what happened when the Fins went down Sunday. He looked like a deer in headlights and was terrible.

The Bills are a better team overall and showed it. They are great on offense and defense, and the AFC East is theirs to lose. The Tre White injury is a big blow, but the Bills still have a great chance to win the AFC.

New England Patriots (1-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

Blow it up. The Pats absolutely stink and have no hope of getting better. They have ONE star player in Matt Judon and ONE promising young player in Christian Gonzalez. Sadly, those two got hurt Sunday and are out indefinitely. After that, the whole team is full of average guys who don’t have any chance of developing into studs. Trade away vets with value and draft a new QB and some offensive talent in this upcoming draft.

Not much else to say, but Bill needs to be more aggressive. The Pats needed to go for it on 4th and 1 at the beginning of the game. They suck on offense and need to get TDs whenever possible. And then when they did go for it on 4th down later in the game, they tried a QB sneak with unathletic Mac Jones and it failed.

As I predicted, the Cowboys completely and utterly outplayed the Pats. They were great in all aspects of the game and, unlike the Patriots, were disciplined too. They won’t make the Super Bowl, but they’ll compete for the NFC East title.

Betting Picks This Week

Game: 2-0 (12-7 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (14-5)

O/U: 2-0 (8-10-1)

NFL Week 4 Preview

Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)

A huggggggggge early season matchup in terms of determining who will win the AFC East. I thinks it’s pretty clear it’ll be between these two teams at this point. I am still skeptical of the Dolphins, as last year they started off 8-3 before finishing 9-8. I understand their win last week was insane and that they have been putting up points, but Buffalo is still the better team and has a point differential nearly identical to the Dolphins. I think the Bills win, cover (-2.5), and the over (53.5) hits.

New England Patriots (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Dallas is going through their classic cycle of playing well, getting overhyped, then under performing. Now that people are giving them shit for losing to the hapless Cardinals, they probably refocus and turn in a great game. The Pats defense will be able to limit the Cowboys offense. But the Dallas defense is legit and the Pats offense is so bad the Cowboys easily have the edge this game. I think the Cowboys win, cover (-7), and the under (43) hits.

NFL Week 3 Reaction

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-3)

The Chargers barely saved their season IN SPITE of their coach Brandon Staley. I love teams being aggressive but he consistently makes dumb calls when going for it on 4th down. His team is so talented that they saved this game and maybe his job. I think eventually Kellen Moore will take over for him.

Games like this are why I think Justin Herbert is right behind Mahomes as the best QB in the league. He’s 6’ 6” 240 lbs, can avoid pressure in the pocket, scramble, make throws on the run from any arm angle, and has a rocket arm. In 52 career games, he has 15,000 yards passing and 100 TDs. Insanely fun to watch.

What do the Vikings do? Kirk Cousins is not the reason this team is losing as he has thrown for 1,075 yards and 9 TDs in three games. But do they want keep in around when he is expensive, old, and has had very little postseason success? I think they should keep him around until the deadline. At that point, if they still suck they can trade him and look to get one of the great new QBs in next year’s draft.

New England Patriots (1-2) @ New York Jets (1-2)

Once again the Patriots defense is amazing and their offense is a let down. Despite grossly out gaining the Jets in yards, the games comes down to a Hail Mary that the Jets almost executed. Mac isn’t good but neither are the skill players around him. Get ready for a lot of unders hitting this season for the Pats.

The Jets are in a brutal spot right now. Zach Wilson sucks but who out there is a better option than him? There’s no good solution.

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

The Bengals save their season in a much needed game. Something still looks off with the Bengals offense. They are not dynamic as normal and Burrow and the WRs are out of sync. I do like how they put Chase all over the field and really got him the ball. But if Burrow’s injury lingers, this team may continue to struggle.

Those Bengals white out uniforms are absolutely awesome. The end zone and logo also being white was the cherry on top.

The Bengals defense was the star of the game today. They will have to continue playing this way until the offense gets it together.

The Rams have played much better than I thought they would. Once Kupp returns, they could make a run at the playoffs.

Other Thoughts:

Wow the Dolphins put up Madden numbers against the Broncos. The first team since 1966 to put up 70 points and they did it without WR Jaylen Waddle. The fantasy numbers they put up were ridiculous too. RBs De’von Achane (51.3) and Raheem Mostert (45.2) combined for 96.5 points.

Betting Picks This Week

Game: 3-0 (10-7 Overall)

Spread: 3-0 (12-5)

O/U: 0-3 (6-10-1)

NFL Week 3 Preview

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

A battle of talented 0-2 teams. I think this game is close but the Chargers have more riding with Brandon Staley on the hot seat. The Chargers win, cover (+1), and the over (54) hits in a high scoring game

New England Patriots (0-2) @ New York Jets (0-2)

Both teams may be 0-2, but the Pats are a much better team than the Jets right now. I think their frustration over losing two close games to good teams leads to them taking their anger out on the hopeless Jets. The Pats will win, cover (-2.5), and the over (36.5) will hit.

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

The Bengals season is on the line this week. Since 2002, only one team has started 0-3 and made the playoffs. What better team to save their season against than the one that beat them in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The Rams have surprised me with their play so far, but the motivated Bengals should win, cover (-2), and the over (43.5) should hit.

Modern Keys to Build Successful Teams

The 2010s New England Patriots and late 2010s/2020s Kansas City Chiefs have given the rest of the NFL the blueprint on how to build sustained success in the NFL. Maybe Bill Belichick should take notes.

1. It all starts with a great ownership group. I’m not saying this is the most important thing, but it is what gets the ball rolling. Having great owners like the Krafts and Hunts is a bedrock for success. At the end of the day, even great coaches, players, and GMs get fired/released, retire, or move on, but families who are great owners can last until the end of time. Just look at the Rooney Family and the Steelers. The only down side is that is true for bad owners too (looking at you Lions).

2. Great owners will hire great GMs who know football like Belichick and Brett Veach, who can in turn fill out the rest of the front office with quality people. A great GM and front office then hire a great coach and draft/sign/trade for great players. Give Belichick all the shit you want about not being a great GM lately, but he is the architect of the 2000s-2010s Patriots (a dynasty that lasted two decades).

3. A great coach will work with the front office to bring in quality players. They will then develop them and coach them up to fit in the system. Andy Reid and Belichick obviously are experts on the side of the ball they grew up coaching, but also have a great level of knowledge on the other side too. They also hire coaches on their staff who know what they’re doing and bring a lot to the table. This all leads to high quality coaching on and off the field that is necessary for success.

4. This is the most important aspect: a star QB who is willing to take pay cuts. I know this seems to go without saying. But not only does a QB need to be great, especially in key moments, but they need to be willing to take pay cuts for the team. This allows the organization to create a better team around the QB. Brady and Mahomes are the only two QBs who seem to have realized this.

5. This will outline different positon groups in no particular order

  • Running backs: No need to spend big on this position. It’s better to have a running back by committee. That way you don’t commit too much salary cap to RBs and aren’t fucked if one goes down by injury.
  • Receivers: You need one great receiver and the rest don’t have to be stars, but need to have a few big moments when called on. The Pats and Chiefs lucked out that their star weapons have been TEs in Gronk and Kelce. Not only do they create matchup nightmares that open up the field for everyone else, but they produce as well as a star WR, for much less money. Outside of you star receiver, your other WRs and TEs should be solid guys but nothing special. Yes, one of the Super Bowls Mahomes won he had Tyreek Hill, but he proved last year he could win with a rag tag bunch of WRs too. Mahomes is so good he made them better, and they made plays when they had to. For the Pats, it was the same way. Julian Edelman was especially clutch, but he would not be the same player without Brady. Guys like Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett, and Danny Amendola also stepped up when needed.
  • OLine: You need a solid unit that gels, but you do not need any superstar tackles or players. It is most important to have a unit as a whole that is great.
  • Defense: This is where the two teams differed. The Pats had overall great defenses who ranked in the top 10 in scoring each year from 2014-2018, but they did not have a constant superstar the entire run, more so just a great unit. The Chiefs defense has been better than people have given it credit the past 4 seasons, finishing 3 of them in the Top 10. Their biggest asset has been they stepped up their game in the postseason. Their only star defensive player for both rings has been Chris Jones. The rest of the defense has been a solid unit that played well together and wasn’t very expensive.
  • Special teams: Special teams need to be well coached and disciplined. They need to not lose their team’s games and ideally make a couple big plays throughout the season, such as a clutch kick or punt return.

The blueprint is there for teams and players to follow. It’s easier said than done but the NFL is a copycat league and unless another team adopts these ways, the Chiefs will keep dominating.

NFL Week 2 Reaction

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

I still won’t hit the panic button on the Bengals. The Bengals started off 0-2 last year and almost made the Super Bowl. If Burrow is injured and/or they play bad next weekend then it’s time to panic.

The Bengals offense is so flat right now and they aren’t doing a good job involving their stars. They played better at the end of the game and need to keep that momentum going next week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Chris Jones showed just how important he is to the Chiefs. They held a great offense to nine points and he was the best player on defense by a mile. The offense will get it together and if the defense can continue to play like this, the Chiefs have nothing to worry about.

The Jags are a great team. They could’ve won that game, but did not execute well in the red zone. The Jags aren’t a team the Chiefs will want to have to play come the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Those Patriots red uniforms are the best in sports and absolutely pop.

This was the second straight game where the Pats lost by inches. That’s sports but it’s still tough to swallow.

The Pats throw too many screens. They’re skill players aren’t good enough to make people miss and get big gains. They need to air it out more.

All things told, the Pats defense played well against one of the best offenses in football. Christian Gonzalez is special and helped lock up Tyreek Hill. He reminds me a lot of Richard Sherman with his size and tackling ability. He is one of the only young players on the Pats who has serious potential.

That blocked field goal by the Pats was genius. Never thought I’d see a guy go in motion on a field goal block, but I bet other teams will copy that.

Overall

Picks: 1-2 (7-7 Overall)

Spread: 1-2 (9-5)

O/U: 3-0 (6-7-1)