(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills
This was as entertaining as we thought it would be. I feel like both teams played great but couldn’t put it away. It ends as it always does though, with the Chiefs moving to the AFC Championship. For the Bills, they are now 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs during the Mahomes – Allen era. They are super talented but keep just missing out.
Game/Betting Picks Results
Game: 0-1 (40-17 Overall)
Spread: 0-1 (40-16-1)
O/U: 1-0 (31-25-1)
(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills
This is a game that means so much to Buffalo. Despite being 3-1 vs the Chiefs in the regular season during the Josh Allen – Patrick Mahomes era, the Bills are 0-2 vs the Chiefs in the playoffs. This is the first time they get to play the Chiefs at home in the playoffs and it should give them an extra boost. The Chiefs though, have a playoff aura around them and are used to bad weather. It’s crazy to think that Mahomes has made the playoffs six times and only lost to Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow. I think Josh Allen adds his name to that list this week and the Bills win, cover (-2.5), and the over (45.5) hits.
My playoff predictions are listed below. My predicted winners are bolded for each game.
AFC
2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers
3 Kansas City Chiefs vs 6 Miami Dolphins
4 Houston Texans vs 5 Cleveland Browns
NFC
2 Dallas Cowboys vs 7 Green Bay Packers
3 Detroit Lions vs 6 LA Rams
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles
AFC
1 Baltimore Ravens vs 5 Cleveland Browns
2 Buffalo Bills vs 3 Kansas City Chiefs
NFC
1 San Francisco 49ers vs 5 Philadelphia Eagles
2 Dallas Cowboys vs 3 Detroit Lions
AFC
1 Baltimore Ravens vs 2 Buffalo Bills
NFC
1 San Francisco 49ers vs 2 Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills
San Francisco 49ers
Below are my top 10 QBs in the NFL. I am not solely basing it off this year, but instead the last couple of years plus how I think they’ll perform in the postseason (if applicable) and next year.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
He had his worst season as a pro this year and still led his team to the AFC West title, won 11 games, and threw for 27 TDs. He would be the consensus pick if you were starting an NFL team right now and is dangerous in the postseason.
2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow had a tough year, first dealing with a nagging calf injury that hampered him the first 4 games, then going on IR after the 10th game of the year. During the 5.5 games he was healthy, he threw for 13 TDs and showed how good he is when healthy.
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen is the modern day Brett Favre. He is an absurd athlete who routinely makes jaw dropping plays. He will also go rouge every now and then and make you ask yourself what the hell he is doing. His 173 total TDs the past 4 years, make up for those mistakes.
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar balled out and will be the league MVP this year. He is one of the most athletic players we’ve ever seen and can do things at QB that no one else in the league can. He needs to prove himself in the playoffs, but if he does, he will move up this list.
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert is insanely talented, but cannot win. I know he’s had horrible coaching his first 4 years, but the hope now is that he can get a coach who knows what they’re doing and starting winning big games. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts is a special QB and a great duel threat. He had some up and down moments this year, but a great postseason run will launch him up this list.
7. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
This season did not go as he wanted it to, however, I am still a believer that this all-time great will come back with a splash next year.
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak played great at times this year, but does not always bring it during big games.
9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence struggled this year, especially when his team needed him down the stretch. He’ll need to work out some kinks this offseason to return to the player he was last year.
10. Brock Purdy, San Franciso 49ers
He is definitely aided by his coach and playmakers around him, but he still gets them the ball and plays great. My only concern is that he struggles to bring his team back if they get too far behind.
On the Bubble:
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
He’s a solid starting QB, but is limited. We’ll see how he plays in the playoffs.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud established himself as one of the best young QBs in the league this year. Should he continue to develop, he could easily enter the top 10 next year.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk’s absence shows the Vikings and the world how good he really is. He just doesn’t get it done in the playoffs.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
He’s a very similar QB to Brock Purdy. I give Purdy the slight edge, because I trust him more in big games.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
I still am a Russ believer. He played well this year despite the fact that he did not have that much talent around him. I think Sean Payton scapegoating him for all of Denver’s woes is laughable. He may not be at his peak anymore, but is still a good starting quarterback.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
He rebounded well this year and led a young team to the playoffs. I still think he’s slightly overrated.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler has all the talent in the world and he played well in limited action this season. I’m excited to see him back to full strength next year for an entire season.
Buffalo Bills (11-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-6)
The Bills dominated this game, with the exception of the red zone. The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins and it showed each time they played them. The win now gives the Bills the 2 seed and a much easier path to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins now have to play the defending champions on the road and will likely not last long in the playoffs.
New England Patriots (4-13) @ New York Jets (7-10)
The snow plus two inept offenses led to a very unexciting game. New England finishes 4-13 for their worst season since 1992. I was hoping the Pats would get the number 2 pick, but we have to settle for 3.
The biggest news obviously is that this could be Bill Belichick’s last game as the Patriots coach. As a Pats fan. I’m forever thankful for him. He is the greatest coach in NFL history and one of the greatest GMs in NFL history. He made some amazing draft picks, free agent signings, trades, and personnel decisions that helped the Pats dominate the league for 2 decades. Their run from 2001-2018 has never been done before and never will be done again. Anyone who thinks the past 4 years have diminished Bill’s legacy is a casual fan who doesn’t know football. We were all spoiled to have him as a coach/GM and I wish him nothing but the best.
This is likely Matthew Slater’s last game too. The fact that a guy who was a special teams player has the level of respect that Slate does, shows how great of a player and teammate he is. His play and leadership will be missed.
Game/Betting Picks Results
Game: 2-0 (38-16 Overall)
Spread: 2-0 (39-14-1)
O/U: 0-2 (29-24-1)
Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)
This will be a great game. At the beginning of the year, who would’ve thought the Dolphins would be competing with the Bills for the division title. Then it all switched, as midway through the year, who would’ve thought the struggling Bills would be able to challenge the Dolphins for the division title. But here we are. This game is as high stakes as a regular season game can be. I think the Bills are the better team and win the game, cover (-2.5), and over (48) hits.
New England Patriots (4-12) @ New York Jets (6-10)
A disastrous and painful year for both teams comes to an end this week. The Pats have finally crumbled to rock bottom Post-Brady and this might be the last game Belichick coaches for the Pats. The Jets thought they would be competing for a Super Bowl until their 4th offensive snap of the year. The fact they won 6 games shows how good their defense and some of their offensive playmakers are. I think the Jets win, cover (+2.5), and the over (30.5) hits.
New England Patriots (4-12) @ Buffalo Bills (10-6)
The Bills won as most people expected, but I’m proud of how well the Pats fought. This whole season, they could’ve given up, but hung in there and have played tough as of late. The Pats defense has been amazing this year, the clear weakness is their offense and special teams.
The Bills now can beat the Dolphins next week and earn the division title AND the 2 seed. Everyone was panicking and saying how bad they were just a couple weeks ago, and now they are on track to be right where we thought they’d be at the beginning of this season. Regardless of where they end up, they’re a team no one wants to play in the post season.
Miami Dolphins (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Wow, just wow. The Ravens keep playing better each week, even against great competition. They continue to surpass expectations and now are the one seed in the AFC and Lamar is the easy NFL MVP. Lamar being a 2 time MVP is an insane accomplishment as he’s only 26. The big thing for him now is playing well in the playoffs, as he and the Ravens have disappointed in the postseason his whole career. The AFC is wide open and this is as good a chance as they have had to win the AFC.
The Dolphins continue to struggle vs good competition and on the road. If they lose next week and are a wild card team – meaning they most likely have to play on the road throughout the playoffs – they won’t make it very far.
Game/Betting Picks Results
Game: 2-0 (36-16 Overall)
Spread: 2-0 (37-14-1)
O/U: 2-0 (29-22-1)
New England Patriots (4-11) @ Buffalo Bills (9-6)
The Bills are one of the hottest teams and have been rolling as of late. Last time they played the Pats, they overlooked the game and the Pats won. With so much on the line this week, the Bills will not make that mistake again. I think the Bills win, the Pats cover (+14), and the over (40) hits.
Miami Dolphins (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
The Ravens are coming off a massive win and have a chance to clinch the one seed at home. The Dolphins have tended to not play well vs good teams this year. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3.5), and the over (47) hits.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) @ New England Patriots (3-11)
Not much to say here. The Chiefs were the better team and they played like it. It just would’ve been nice to see the Pats put in a little more effort at the end of the game. They had nothing to lose, so they should’ve played like it.
Dallas Cowboys (10-4) @ Buffalo Bills (8-6)
A dominant win by the Bills. These two teams are very similar in the sense that they can beat anybody and they can lose to anybody depending on how they play. The Bills are starting to catch fire and will be a team that no one wants to play in the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens (11-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
Not the smoothest game by either team but the Ravens pull it out as they usually do. They now have the inside track to the AFC 1 seed while the Jags gotta pull it together to ensure they win the division.
Game/Betting Picks Results
Game: 3-0 (34-13 Overall)
Spread: 3-0 (35-11-1)
O/U: 1-2 (26-20-1)
Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) @ New England Patriots (3-10)
I can smell a blowout brewing. The Chiefs are absolutely pissed off from last week’s game, have never lost three in a row with Mahomes, and their season is teetering on the edge of going downhill. With the worst team in the AFC across from them, I think the Chiefs blowout the Pats, cover (-7.5), and the over (37) hits.
Side note: the news about Bill already being gone come season end is sad to hear, no matter how bad they have been. I’m not sure if it’s true, but regardless, it probably won’t help the beatdown Pat’s morale.
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6)
The best matchup of the weekend features the leading MVP candidate… and Josh Allen. The Cowboys know they need to win all of their remaining games to have a shot at the 1 seed and the division. The Bills are coming off a crazy game and also need to win out to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. Don’t count the Bills out from winning the division either. They already beat Miami head to head, play them again, and have an easier remaining schedule. I think the Bills win, cover (-2), and the over (50.5) hits.
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Two of the AFC’s best teams square off in a game with big divisional and conference implications. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3), and the over (42.5) hits.
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