Tag: Bill Belichick

Drake Maye vs Mac Jones

There are many reasons why most Patriots fans, including myself, believe Drake Maye will fair much better than Mac Jones. Below are my reasons, some obvious and some not so much.

Drake Maye has much more talent than Mac Jones. Physically he is slightly bigger at 6’4″, 230 lbs vs Mac at 6’3″ 220. He also is much more athletic and has such a better arm than Mac does.

Maye also produced in a much harder situation than Mac. Mac was aided by the greatest college football coach ever and maybe the greatest wide receiver room in college football history. Maye dealt with much more difficulty and still stood out.

Maye seems like intangibly he is also better than Mac. Mac had a tendency to pout and have poor body language, whereas Maye seems to have a better attitude, which I think is important. When the going gets tough, you want a QB who weathers the storm instead of complaining about the storm.

For all of Mac’s shortcomings, he really had no help offensively, as the Pats have had the worst offensive skill talent in the league since Brady left and their offensive line play was poor too. They are still very much a work in progress, but they did use significant draft capital on WRs and Oline this year. Hopefully, the Pats will continue to build the offense around Maye and give him viable options and protection.

Maye also benefits from not being the heir apparent franchise QB to Tom Brady. That is nearly an impossible role to live up to and Mac didn’t come close. Now that Pats fans have endured a couple shitty seasons, their expectations are not as high as the immediate Post-Brady era.

This will be the most controversial, but I think Maye will actually benefit from not having the greatest coach of all time lead the Patriots. The Bill vs Tom debate created lots of controversy and pressure for everyone in Foxboro. I believe it influenced Bill to go for broke in terms of winning and he simply tried a quick reload, instead of a full on rebuild that the Pats realistically needed. Now that he’s gone, they can focus on rebuilding correctly and getting back to winning championships.

Post Draft Thoughts

So much success in the NFL is based on where you play, especially at quarterback. No matter how much talent you have, a terrible organization, coach, and team can derail a career. Now that we know where the top 6 QBs and a couple other top prospects are playing, below I predict how their careers will turn out.

Caleb Williams:

Going to Chicago has historically been where careers go to die for QBs. However, if one QB can buck that trend, it’s Williams. He is so talented and the fact that his pro comparisons are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes tells you how good he is. Unlike with Justin Fields, the Bears have actually done a great job of surrounding him with amazing weapons and a solid Oline. How great he will be will come down to how well the coaching staff develops him. Regardless, the Bears history of never having a QB throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs will end soon.

I think he will be a really good to great QB in the NFL. He will make multiple Pro Bowls and help the Bears compete in a really tough division. My main apprehension with him is he seems like a diva type player. That’s fine with wide receivers like TO and OBJ, but when it comes to quarterback, that type of personality tends to not work out. Look at guys in the league who are star QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc. They are not controversial and outspoken personalities. They always say the right things and are tremendous leaders. I just get the vibe that Caleb will not be a great leader and might causes some issues off the field similar to Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers. Once again, I think he’ll be really good to great, but will definitely cause some headaches for the Bears.

Jayden Daniels:

It’s great to see another LSU QB have a massive progression, win the Heisman, and be a top pick in the draft. That shows how great his work ethic is. His athleticism is off the charts and he will be one of the most athletic QBs in the league right away. It’s also reassuring that Daniels put up the numbers he did while playing in the best conference in college. He will be able to make an immediate impact and having an OC like Kliff Kingsbury is also a plus.

My one apprehension with him is that he is not super well built. This is something that can be fixed, but with a terrible Oline and being a guy that runs so much, it could be an issue.

Overall, he has a pretty good group of weapons around him with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson at WR and Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr at RB. I think he has an average to solid career as a starter, but is not anything special.

Drake Maye:

I have super high hopes for Maye. He was my favorite QB in this draft, so the fact the Pats got him at #3 is a steal in my opinion. He reminds me a lot of Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert in terms of his combination of size, athleticism, and arm talent. He will just have turned 22 at the start of next season and will have time to develop under Jacoby Brissett. He is extremely tough, is a great kid, and played well through some perseverance and tough situations last year.

The biggest question with Maye has nothing to do with him, but the Patriots. First off, they have the worst roster in the league, especially when it comes to Oline and WR. They drafted some wide receivers and offensive lineman after Maye, but they still need to surround him with weapons and guys who can block. Also, how will the coaches develop him? Jerrod Mayo is a defensive coach so it will mainly be the responsibility of Alex Van Pelt, who is relatively unproven.

I believe he will develop into the Patriots franchise quarterback. He has the tools to succeed in New England, with a big frame and big arm that will serve him well in the terrible Foxboro weather. He obviously won’t be Tom Brady, but I think he can be a better version of Drew Bledsoe. He should be a multiple time Pro Bowler and lead the Pats back to contention for years to come.

Michael Penix Jr:

Easily the biggest shocker of the draft. I was initially shocked by what they did, but the Falcons explaining why they did it helped me make more sense of it. I just don’t agree with their reasoning.

Penix is going to be 24 before the season starts and is maybe the most “pro-ready” QB prospect in the draft. But they drafted him to be the developmental, eventual starter. He should have some good weapons around him when he does start, but when will that be?

They owe Kirk Cousins a ton of money and realistically can’t get out of the contact until 2026 when Penix with be 26 himself. Cousins isn’t amazing but he’s a good enough starter who probably won’t play himself out of the position. With all the uncertainty and an odd situation, I think Penix doesn’t end up being a long-term starter in the league.

J.J. McCarthy:

I like McCarthy, but easily think he was the most overrated player this draft. Compared to the other 5 QBs taken, I think he easily was the worst prospect and was benefited by his team more than any of them. With that being said, he is going to basically the perfect situation. He has a really good offensive coach in Kevin O’Connell, the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson, a top 3 TE in TJ Hockenson, one of the best young WRs in the league in Jordan Addison, and new RB Aaron Jones. They even have a good offensive line. Furthermore, McCarthy can develop behind Sam Darnold if needed.

I think McCarthy will have a career similar to the man he is replacing – Kirk Cousins. His situation is just too good to be a complete bust. I see him putting up solid numbers but not being a guy who can win his team big games and take them far in the playoffs.

Bo Nix:

Nix lands in a spot with a good head coach, but a team that really lacks weapons. He’s accurate and has a ton of experience, but I just don’t think he has that high of a ceiling. Sean Payton has also been very impatient and critical of his QB and team since taking over and I don’t think that’s a great situation for any rookie QB. I think Nix ends up playing a good bit as a rookie, but I don’t think his career will mount to much and he won’t be a long-term starter.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

I think he is the best player in this class and the most exciting by far. Getting to play for a good QB in Kyler is also huge for him. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and should be an absolute stud for years to come.

Brock Bowers:

I think Bowers fits into the Raiders mold well. The biggest question is who is gonna be the QB throwing him the ball and how good will they be. However, he’s so talented that he should make an immediate impact and he has other weapons around him so defenses can’t just key in on him. He should be a long-term starter and make a handful of Pro Bowls.

Other Quick Points

With 6 QBs taken in the first round and all these other amazing offensive players at marquee positions like WR and OT, I think this draft will go down in history as one of the best ever.

The fact that round 1 of the NFL draft had a higher average viewership than last year’s NBA finals once again shows why football is the king of sports in the US.

Xavier Worthy should be a great pick for Chiefs. He fits in so well with Mahomes and that offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their WR corps into one of the better ones in the league in just one year, showing why they are the dynasty that they are.

It’s still so early, but the Bears – Panthers trade from last year might go down as the worst trade in NFL history. If Bryce Young ends up being a bust, while Caleb is a stud that’s bad enough. But on top of that, the Bears got one of the best WRs in the league, a starting tackle, a starting CB, and still have another 2nd round pick next year. This is something to keep an eye on.

Belichick vs Kraft Beef Reaction

It’s sad to see what has become of two of the core members of the Pat’s Dynasty. Bill’s name has been dragged through the mud the past four years as people have said he is an incompetent GM and an out of touch coach. Now, its gotten to the point where Bill couldn’t get a job in the latest hiring cycle and his future as a head coach is in jeopardy.

What’s made the Bill situation more awkward is the role that Kraft has seemed to play in the smearing of Bill’s name. Reports have come out for the last five or so years about Kraft not liking Belichick and saying a demeaning thing here and there. But this offseason, it has turned into a full frontal assault on Bill.

First, the documentary, “The Dynasty,” came out. A lot of former Pats have called it terrible, and it seems like a hit piece Kraft helped make to simultaneously shit on Belichick, while also making himself look good so he can get into the Hall of Fame. Now, a report has come out that Kraft has been talking about Bill behind his back to sabotage Bill and prevent him from getting a job. The article stated a big reason for this is that Brady has left and had success and if Bill does the same, then Kraft looks like the reason the Pats dynasty failed and the least important of the three. Kraft’s main hope of looking good is if Bill doesn’t get a job and he can rebuild the Pats to a title contender.

It has gotten to the point that people are now defending Bill and shitting on Kraft, which I never thought I’d see. It’s also important to remember that while I’m sure there’s some truth to all of this, it also is likely getting blown out of proportion to make it into an entertaining story.

Regardless, this is tough as a Pats fan because I really like both of them. I think Bill is the greatest coach and GM ever, and Kraft is the greatest owner of all time. Both completely deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame and every Pats fan should be grateful for both of them. I think time is what’s needed to heal this relationship. After a couple years, I’m sure the beef will mostly subside and they’ll be thankful for each other and what they were able to accomplish together.

Evaluating my Beginning of the Year Predictions

This was a wild year with many ups and downs in the NFL and CFB. At the beginning of the year, I made numerous predictions on what would happen this season and below are some of the best predictions I made:

  • I correctly picked the winner of 71% (42/59) of the games I covered this season.
  • I hit on 72% (42/58) of the spreads I picked this year.
  • I hit on 53% (31/58) of the over/unders I picked this year.
  • All told, I hit on 63% (73/116) of the betting picks I made this year.
  • Michigan won the CFP Championship.
  • Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers won their divisions.
  • Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys made the playoffs.
  • San Francisco 49ers made the Super Bowl
  • Kansas City Chiefs made the AFC Championship Game
  • Josh McDaniels got fired as the Raiders coach.
  • Ron Rivera was fired as the Commanders coach.
  • Bill Belichick and the Pats parted ways at the end of the year.
  • Jared Goff threw 30 TDs this year.
  • Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB.
  • Shane Steichen and the Colts surprised people.

Patriots Future

Coach/GM

With Bill gone, the biggest question was who will replace him as head coach and GM. We now know that it’s Jerod Mayo as the HC. I loved Mayo as a player and from what everyone is saying, it seems like he’s a great coach and a guy who players will love playing for. My only apprehension is that he is a defensive guy and in today’s NFL, offense is key – especially for the Pats who have a terrible offense and need to fix it. I think it’s time to cut bait with Bill O’Brien and to try to bring Josh McDaniel’s back as the Pats OC. He is a great OC and can ideally be the Pats long-term OC as he likely won’t get another head coaching job.

Ideally their new GM will come from an organization that has a history of drafting quality offensive talent like 49ers Assistant GM Adam Peters. We need to revamp the front office and bring in fresh ideas on how to draft offensive skill players.

Roster:

Their offense is absolutely terrible. They ranked last in points scored and 28th in yards. This is the main aspect of the team that needs a complete overhaul.

The most obvious part of the rebuild is that the Pats really need to draft a QB with their first round pick because no QB on the Pats is the answer right now. Mac Jones has not been in a good situation the past two years, with some inept offensive coaching and a lack of weapons, but he still needs to be cut or traded. He has a terrible arm, is not athletic, and has awful body language. Bailey Zappe is a solid backup to have, but not a starter.

The 3 pick is a tough situation to be in, though. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will likely be off the board. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., and JJ McCarthy all have some red flags and 3 seems too high to take any of those guys.

Ideally the Pats would trade up to 1 or 2 to get Williams or Maye. If not, I would hope they would trade back a couple picks and draft the third best QB in a better value spot, like 5 or 6. If neither of those options are possible, I wouldn’t hate drafting a guaranteed STUD like WR Marvin Harrison Jr or TE Brock Bowers, either at #3 or trading back a couple picks and then selecting one.

Bottom line is the number 3 draft pick ideally needs to turn into our franchise QB, but at minimum needs to lead to a bona fide star who will be a pillar of the franchise for the next decade. I’m talking a Hall of Fame level player. This draft is stacked, it is inexcusable to get anything less.

Running back is in a solid place with Rhamondre Stevenson having one year left and Eziekiel Elliot potentially returning on a one year deal. They should draft another RB in the mid rounds this year.

The Pats have the worst WR room in the entire league and they need a legitimate number 1 and number 2 receiver. Demario Douglas was solid with 548 yards, but isn’t much more than a #3 WR. Kendrick Bourne was on pace for 863 yards before getting injured, but he will be 29 next year and is probably not much better than a #3 option too. They should resign Bourne if the money is right, but should not feel bad about walking away. Devante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster sucked this year and we should move on from them. Tyquan Thornton looks like a huge bust, but should be given one more chance due to his speed. A WR should be drafted with one of their first 2 picks. They should also use their $74.2 million in cap space to get a great free agent WR like Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, or Michael Pittman Jr. I’m fine overpaying for one of those guys because it’s such an important position and a huge need.

At TE Hunter Henry is a solid option, who they should resign. Mike Gesicki is bad and they should let him walk. They should also look for another TE in the mid rounds of the draft.

Their offensive line struggled this year, a lot of it due to injury. They have some solid pieces in Cole Strange, Michael Onwenu, Trent Brown, and David Andrews. They should resign Onwenu and Brown, look to draft some new lineman, and maybe sign LT Tyron Smith, if he’s available.

All things considered, their defense was amazing this year. They ranked 17th in points against (in large part due to the offense turning over the ball in bad field position so many times) and 6th in yards, despite losing their two best players early in the year. S Kyle Dugger, DL Christian Baremore, LB Juwan Bentley, CB Christian Gonzalez, EDGE Matthew Judon, and S Jabril Peppers provide a solid nucleus. Dugger is a free agent and they should sign him if the money is right. If not, losing a safety is not a huge deal. Judon will likely want a new deal. Even coming off an injury, I’d be happy to sign him to a highly paid two year deal since he’s been our best player the last three years. There are some game changing free agents potentially available in DT Chris Jones, EDGE Josh Allen, EDGE Brian Burns, DT Justin Madubuike, EDGE Daniel Hunter, and LB Patrick Queen. I know not all of the guys will end up being free agents, but if they are, go try to get some of them.

Special Teams was not good this year. K Chad Ryland stinks and hit 62.5% of field goals. He was a complete waste of a 4th round pick, but you probably have to give him another chance. Returner Marcus Jones should be back next year. With ST Matthew Slater leaving, someone will have to fill that void.

The Pats have potential to be respectable next year and great from then on out if things go their way this offseason. They had 8 losses by one possession, 3 of which occurred with the defense allowing 10 points or fewer. Whoever replaces Bill as GM needs to get a new QB and some offensive weapons. They also need to spend aggressively in free agency, with some potential great players available. With Bill and Slater leaving, they also need to find their new identity next year. New leaders need to step up and lead the Pats to a new Golden Age.

NFL Week 18 Reaction

Buffalo Bills (11-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-6)

The Bills dominated this game, with the exception of the red zone. The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins and it showed each time they played them. The win now gives the Bills the 2 seed and a much easier path to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins now have to play the defending champions on the road and will likely not last long in the playoffs.

New England Patriots (4-13) @ New York Jets (7-10)

The snow plus two inept offenses led to a very unexciting game. New England finishes 4-13 for their worst season since 1992. I was hoping the Pats would get the number 2 pick, but we have to settle for 3.

The biggest news obviously is that this could be Bill Belichick’s last game as the Patriots coach. As a Pats fan. I’m forever thankful for him. He is the greatest coach in NFL history and one of the greatest GMs in NFL history. He made some amazing draft picks, free agent signings, trades, and personnel decisions that helped the Pats dominate the league for 2 decades. Their run from 2001-2018 has never been done before and never will be done again. Anyone who thinks the past 4 years have diminished Bill’s legacy is a casual fan who doesn’t know football. We were all spoiled to have him as a coach/GM and I wish him nothing but the best.

This is likely Matthew Slater’s last game too. The fact that a guy who was a special teams player has the level of respect that Slate does, shows how great of a player and teammate he is. His play and leadership will be missed.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (38-16 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (39-14-1)

O/U: 0-2 (29-24-1)

Week 18 Prediction

Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)

This will be a great game. At the beginning of the year, who would’ve thought the Dolphins would be competing with the Bills for the division title. Then it all switched, as midway through the year, who would’ve thought the struggling Bills would be able to challenge the Dolphins for the division title. But here we are. This game is as high stakes as a regular season game can be. I think the Bills are the better team and win the game, cover (-2.5), and over (48) hits.

New England Patriots (4-12) @ New York Jets (6-10)

A disastrous and painful year for both teams comes to an end this week. The Pats have finally crumbled to rock bottom Post-Brady and this might be the last game Belichick coaches for the Pats. The Jets thought they would be competing for a Super Bowl until their 4th offensive snap of the year. The fact they won 6 games shows how good their defense and some of their offensive playmakers are. I think the Jets win, cover (+2.5), and the over (30.5) hits.

Week 17 Reaction

New England Patriots (4-12) @ Buffalo Bills (10-6)

The Bills won as most people expected, but I’m proud of how well the Pats fought. This whole season, they could’ve given up, but hung in there and have played tough as of late. The Pats defense has been amazing this year, the clear weakness is their offense and special teams.

The Bills now can beat the Dolphins next week and earn the division title AND the 2 seed. Everyone was panicking and saying how bad they were just a couple weeks ago, and now they are on track to be right where we thought they’d be at the beginning of this season. Regardless of where they end up, they’re a team no one wants to play in the post season.

Miami Dolphins (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

Wow, just wow. The Ravens keep playing better each week, even against great competition. They continue to surpass expectations and now are the one seed in the AFC and Lamar is the easy NFL MVP. Lamar being a 2 time MVP is an insane accomplishment as he’s only 26. The big thing for him now is playing well in the playoffs, as he and the Ravens have disappointed in the postseason his whole career. The AFC is wide open and this is as good a chance as they have had to win the AFC.

The Dolphins continue to struggle vs good competition and on the road. If they lose next week and are a wild card team – meaning they most likely have to play on the road throughout the playoffs – they won’t make it very far.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 2-0 (36-16 Overall)

Spread: 2-0 (37-14-1)

O/U: 2-0 (29-22-1)

Week 17 Prediction

New England Patriots (4-11) @ Buffalo Bills (9-6)

The Bills are one of the hottest teams and have been rolling as of late. Last time they played the Pats, they overlooked the game and the Pats won. With so much on the line this week, the Bills will not make that mistake again. I think the Bills win, the Pats cover (+14), and the over (40) hits.

Miami Dolphins (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

The Ravens are coming off a massive win and have a chance to clinch the one seed at home. The Dolphins have tended to not play well vs good teams this year. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3.5), and the over (47) hits.

Week 15 Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) @ New England Patriots (3-10)

I can smell a blowout brewing. The Chiefs are absolutely pissed off from last week’s game, have never lost three in a row with Mahomes, and their season is teetering on the edge of going downhill. With the worst team in the AFC across from them, I think the Chiefs blowout the Pats, cover (-7.5), and the over (37) hits.

Side note: the news about Bill already being gone come season end is sad to hear, no matter how bad they have been. I’m not sure if it’s true, but regardless, it probably won’t help the beatdown Pat’s morale.

Dallas Cowboys (10-3) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6)

The best matchup of the weekend features the leading MVP candidate… and Josh Allen. The Cowboys know they need to win all of their remaining games to have a shot at the 1 seed and the division. The Bills are coming off a crazy game and also need to win out to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. Don’t count the Bills out from winning the division either. They already beat Miami head to head, play them again, and have an easier remaining schedule. I think the Bills win, cover (-2), and the over (50.5) hits.

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)

Two of the AFC’s best teams square off in a game with big divisional and conference implications. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3), and the over (42.5) hits.