Tag: Bill Belichick

NFL Week 7 Predictions

New England Patriots (1-5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

The Pats head to London in a game they could actually win this year. Drake Maye has given this team all kinds of hope and hopefully the team continues to grow. We’re dealing with lots of injuries on the offensive line once again and Rhamondre might not play. I think the Pats win, cover (+6), and the over (42) hits.

Houston Texans (5-1) @ Green Bay Packers (4-2)

A great matchup between two up and coming teams. The Texans are dealing with tons of injuries to their defense. I think the Packers win, the Texans cover (+3), and the over (48.5) hits.

Detroit Lions (4-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

A matchup of the two best teams in the NFC. I think the Lions win, cover (+1.5), and the under (50.5) hits.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3)

A Super Bowl rematch as the Niners biggest tormentor comes to Santa Clara. The Chiefs have played well in spite of injuries to great offensive players. I think the Niners get revenge, cover (-2), and the over (47) hits.

Baltimore Ravens (4-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)

One of the best primetime games of the year so far. I think the Ravens win, cover (-3.5), and the over (49.5) hits.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 0-0 (15-6 This Season) (53-22 All-Time)

Spread: 0-0 (14-6-1) (53-20-2)

O/U: 0-0 (11-10) (40-34-1)

NFL Week 6 Reaction

Washington Commanders (4-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

The Ravens keep steamrolling along. Both QBs balled out in this game and both teams have bright futures ahead this season and beyond. Derrick Henry playing so good even at age 30 is so much fun to watch. He passed 10,000 yards rushing and is closing in on 100 TDs. He is a future Hall of Famer.

Houston Texans (5-1) @ New England Patriots (1-5)

Those red uniforms absolutely POP in Fall New England weather.

I don’t understand why the Pats continue to defer. They CANNOT play from behind. They need to be tied or have the lead so they can run the ball, grind out drives, and set the tone. It’s ridiculous. They let the Texans get the ball and score, then went 3 and out, then let the Texans score again. And the game was over after two possessions.

The Pats lack of discipline and penalties is absurd. You are bad enough as is, stop giving other teams more chances. So many good plays they make are negated by dumb penalties.

Drake Maye is so athletic and showed flashes of why we drafted him so high. That throw to Kayshon Boutte was Boutte-ful (sorry). We have not had a throw like that since Brady was QB and it feels so good to finally see a long, explosive play. His ability to keep plays alive with his feet and scramble is huge too and is helping our offense look more modern.

Yes, he had three TOs but had some deep passes, 3 passing TDs, and a handful of yards rushing. This was the first time we scored over 20 points and had a 200 yard passer. It feels so nice to have an offense again. It was a great debut overall and given how bad our O-line and skill players are and how good the Texans are, I’d give the debut an 8/10.

Sadly, the O-line is still terrible and we were dealt even more injuries today. Drake Maye and Antonio Gibson consistently never had a chance on passing and running plays.

Demario Douglas is showing flashes of becoming a good slot guy for the Pats. We haven’t had that since Jakobi Meyers was foolishly not resigned.

I would have liked to see the Pats run a mock two minute drill at the end of the game. You had 3 timeouts and plenty of time, why not use the timeouts and go for a score?

The officials were absolutely awful. A bogus pass interference helped lead to the first TD. Then a missed facemask call preceded Drake Maye getting stripped sacked and the Texans scoring their third TD. It was an embarrassment of a performance by those refs. I don’t get why refs aren’t held accountable for being terrible. If you fine the bad refs that made awful calls and/or suspend them without pay for a game for consistently being awful they might actually be competent at their jobs.

The Texans are really good and might be able to topple the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Detroit Lions (4-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

Blowout Central. The Lions are great this year and look like the best team in the NFC. They are such a well-rounded team and have so many weapons on offense plus the best offensive line in the league.

It just sucks to see what happened to Aidan Hutchinson. It’s awful whenever any player gets a gruesome and brutal injury. Especially so when he’s one of the best players in the league and a leader of a Super Bowl contender. I hope and pray he can make a speedy and full recovery.

Brady said it and it’s true: Why are the Lions pulling out all these great trick plays in a blowout? Save them for a big game that is close in score.

The Cowboys look lost. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, they don’t have another reliable option offensively. Defensively, they are so banged up. This looks like it might be Mike McCarthy’s last year in Dallas.

Buffalo Bills (4-2) @ New York Jets (2-4)

New coach, same old Jets. Another game lost they definitely could have won. Two missed field goals and a bad pick at the end of the game doomed this team.

Even though the Jets season seems close to combustion, they could easily be 4-2 and a top the AFC East. It’s just a matter if they can right the ship of they internally collapse.

The Bills have their ups and downs, but they consistently find ways to win games.

Game/Betting Picks Results

Game: 3-1 (15-6 This Season) (53-22 All-Time)

Spread: 2-1-1 (14-6-1) (53-20-2)

O/U: 3-1 (11-10) (40-34-1)

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Washington Commanders (4-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

Two of the most exciting QBs in the league face off in what should be one of the best games of the weekend. I think the Ravens win, Commanders cover (+7), and the over (51.5) hits.

Houston Texans (4-1) @ New England Patriots (1-4)

Drake Maye makes his NFL debut against one of the best teams in the AFC (GULP!) The Pats should have some early game energy and come out pretty good, but it won’t last long. I think things get ugly and the Texans win, cover (-6.5), and the over (37.5) hits. At least the Pats will look good because they’re wearing their red Pat the Patriot throwbacks aka The Best Uniforms in all of Sports.

Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

The Thanksgiving staples face off just as Fall is getting started. The Lions are better and healthier than the Cowboys. I think they win, cover (-3), and the under (52.5) hits.

Buffalo Bills (3-2) @ New York Jets (2-3)

The Jets have had the most Jets week since Bill Belichick resigned on a napkin. I mean literally if any other NFL team had the week the Jets just had, I would be shocked – even the Browns. But since it’s the Jets and they are one of the most poorly run franchises/businesses in the entire world, you just have to shake your head, laugh, and be thankful you aren’t a Jets fan. If you are a Jets fan? At least the Yankees and Mets are still playing and you probably have something else to root for.

Despite my thoughts on the Jets, I think they will win Monday, cover (+2), and the over (41) hits. I think teams with interim coaches get a little bump after their original coach is fired, because it lights a fire under the team. I also think Rodgers will be pissed and come out and play well. Furthermore, the Bills have tons of injuries and the Jets are simply healthier.

Football and Continuity

One thing I often hear former Patriots players and coaches talk about as a key element of success in the NFL is continuity. Brady talks about it all the time and recently Josh McDaniels talked about the importance of it on Julian Edelman’s fantastic podcast Games with Names.

While it is not something that the average fan would think of, it makes sense. Having the same coach means that you have the same culture and overall system in play. Having the same QB means your leader knows the system and is an example for others to follow. And when you have star players like Edelman, Gronk, or Travis Kelce on the team for a long time it further helps spread the culture to incoming free agents and draft picks.

And when a team has continuity while other teams in their division don’t, it makes said continuity even more valuable. During the Brady-Belichick era (2001-2019), the Jets had 5 coaches and 18 starting QBs, the Dolphins had 10 coaches and 20 starting QBs, and the Bills had 9 coaches and 18 starting QBs. Meanwhile the Pats had 1 coach and 4 starting QBs. The other 3 QBs played a total of 19 starts during Brady’s 2008 injury season and 2016 bullshit suspension. No wonder the Pats dominated their division – they actually had consistency while every other team kept having to restart.

The Chiefs have faced similar ineptitude. Since Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chargers have had 4 coaches and 4 starting QBs, the Raiders have had 4 coaches and 6 starting QBs, and the Broncos have had 5 coaches and 11 starting QBs. The Chiefs have had one coach and 4 QBs, with the 3 others QBs starting 4 combined games.

The Pats and Chiefs continuity stands out even more when the teams around them experience a complete lack of it. Continuity leads to continuous success, which experiences compounding interest just like investing does. I feel like this goes for all of life too. Having the same people in place at major positions of a business helps the business run better than if there’s turnover and the business should continue to get better over time. Constantly learning about a subject leads to your knowledge of the topic growing exponentially over time. The Pats and Chiefs are examples of the hidden force of continuity in the NFL.

Belichick Coaching Tree vs Shanahan and Reid

I was reading a book about investing recently that advised that just because an investor has success with their investing strategy, does not necessarily mean others can copy it and be successful. That brought to mind the fact that Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, yet his numerous assistants that have been hired to implement the “Patriot Way,” continuously and spectacularly fail to do so with other organizations. The main complaint you hear about these coaches is that they try so hard to be like Bill, but it just doesn’t work for them.

On the flip side, you see the coaching trees of two of Belichick’s contemporaries, Mike Shanahan and Andy Reid, that are dominating the NFL right now. Shanahan and Reid are successful, Hall of Fame level coaches, but still have less Super Bowls combined than Bill does. It is an interesting tale in showing that the most successful strategy is not always the best one to learn from and replicate.

Bill’s Coaching Tree:

  • Romeo Crennel: 32-63
  • Brian Daboll (active): 15-19-1; 1-1 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
  • Brian Flores: 24-25
  • Eric Mangini: 33-47; 0-1 playoff record
  • Josh McDaniels: 20-33
  • Bill O’Brien: 52-48; 2-4 playoff record
  • Matt Patricia: 13-29-1
  • Nick Saban: 15-17
  • Jim Schwartz: 29-51; 0-1 playoff record
  • Joe Judge: 10-23
  • Jerrod Mayo (active): 1-0
  • 3 other coaches combined: 13-18
  • Total: 14 coaches; 257-373-1; 3-7 playoff record; 1-time AP Coach of the Year
    • NOTE: Above records are the record of coaches after they have served on Bill’s staff. Any record before they coached for Bill is not included.

So far, 14 former assistant coaches have not come close to surpassing Bill’s career win total of 302 regular season wins and have barley made a dent in reaching his 31 playoff victories or 6 Super Bowls.

Jerrod Mayo and Brian Daboll are the only active coaches from Belichick’s tree. They also are coaching two of the worst teams in football so, short term, they probably won’t improve the overall success of Belichick’s tree. However, if they can rebuild their respective teams, they could become exceptions to the rule.

Mike’s tree:

  • Gary Kubiak: 82-75; 5-2 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Matt LaFleur (active): 56-28; 3-4 playoff record
  • Mike McDaniel (active): 21-14; 0-2 playoff record
  • Sean McVay (active): 70-46; 7-4 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Raheem Morris (active): 4-8
  • Kyle Shanahan (active): 64-51; 8-4 playoff record;
  • 3 other Coaches Combined: 91-90; 3-4 playoff record
  • Total: 9 coaches; 388-312; 26-20 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 1 time AP COY

Andy’s tree:

  • Todd Bowels (active): 42-57; 1-2 playoff record
  • John Harbaugh (active): 160-100; 12-10 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl; 1 time AP COY
  • Sean McDermott (active): 74-41; 5-6 playoff record
  • Matt Nagy: 34-31; 0-2 playoff record; 1 time AP COY
  • Doug Pederson (active): 60-54-1; 5-3 playoff record; 1 Super Bowl
  • Ron Rivera: 102-103-2; 3-5 playoff record; 2 time AP COY
  • 5 others combined: 94-167-1; 1-3 playoff record
  • Total: 11 coaches; 566-553-4; 27-31 playoff record; 2 Super Bowls; 4 time AP COY

Andy and Mike’s trees account for 10 of the 32 active NFL coaches (including Andy). They have had multiple coaches win Super Bowls and have had their coaching trees well surpass their regular season and postseason win totals.

I think these coaches have tended to work when Bill’s don’t for a couple of reasons. Coming from the Patriots as a new head coach, there is so much pressure in terms of replicating what Bill has done. This already puts Bill’s coaches at a disadvantage because fans automatically compare them to Bill and the Patriots success. Rebuilding a team takes time and fans and ownership need patience.

Belichick is also such a unique coach in the sense that he knows so much about every aspect of football. He is the greatest defensive mind in NFL history, knows a ton about the offensive side of the ball, and has a great understanding of personnel and the salary cap. All this is nearly impossible for a former assistant to copy.

Lastly, Bill had total control of the Pats, as the HC and GM. Most head coaches do not have that kind of power. If a Belichick guy is hired as HC and the GM of their new team is not aligned with what the new coach thinks is the best way to build a roster, then the coach is doomed from the start.

It’s interesting to note that former Belichick coaches have fared much better in college. Saban is the greatest college coach of all time, while Pat Hill and Kirk Ferentz both have had a lot of success. This is likely due to the fact that college coaches have much more control of their team than NFL coaches do.

In terms of how the game has changed, most of Shanahan’s guys are genius offensive coaches, which is what most teams look for in new head coaches nowadays. The way they coach is made for today’s modern game. For Reid, he has produced great coaches on both sides of the ball. I think they learn from Andy how to mainly focus on coaching and work with the front office more than Patriots guys did since Bill was both the HC and the GM.

Maybe Daboll and Mayo will change the narrative. For the time being, Shanahan and Reid’s coaching philosophies are dominating the league and it likely won’t change soon.

Robert Kraft and the Hall of Fame

Most fans can agree that Robert Kraft deserves a spot in the NFL Hall of Fame. He is one of the greatest owners of all time, oversaw the best dynasty in the sport’s history, and has been a massive help in the NFL’s growth, their TV deals, and ending the 2011 lockout. However, he continues to be denied a spot. Why is that?

First off, owners take a while to get in. Even though they run the league, this is the reality they all face. Since 2000, five owners have gotten in the Hall of Fame and have waited an average of just over 35 years between taking control of their franchise and getting enshrined. The honored owners were, Dan Rooney of the Steelers (25 years), Ralph Wilson of the Bills (49 years), Eddie DeBartolo of the 49ers (39 years), Jerry Jones of the Cowboys (28 years), and Pat Bowlen of the Broncos (35 years). Kraft became owner of the Pats 30 years ago, so he’s by no means had to wait longer than usual to be inducted.

Another reason Kraft hasn’t been inducted yet is that, until this year, coaches and owners were grouped together in the “coaches and contributors” category. Usually only one or 2 people from this group get enshrined each year and coaches tended to get in over owners. Now, owners will be considered separate from coaches, which will help Kraft out.

The next piece has to do with human psychology. Reports are that for over a decade Kraft has lobbied hard behind the scenes, having people close to him tell voters that Kraft needs to be put into the Hall of Fame. This is naturally going to irk voters who don’t want to be told what to do. These people all know football and it likely annoys them when someone consistently asks to be voted for because they think they are so deserving. This may have led some voters to reject Kraft, as they don’t want to feel like they’re giving in to what they perceive as whining or being told how to vote.

Also, there are reports that Kraft used The Dynasty docuseries to basically be an advertisement for his Hall of Fame candidacy. According to ESPN, Kraft owns the docuseries and sought editorial control of it. If that’s the case, to voters this looks like an embarrassing plea that isn’t going to convince them. It also looks even worse because Kraft has denied he had any involvement and said he was disappointed with the film. The only thing worse than making a documentary like that, would be to then deny your involvement and say it wasn’t good. There is a lot of he said, she said, but regardless, it isn’t a great look for Kraft.

Another reason for Kraft’s current omission from the Hall is that when you think of the Patriots dynasty, you think of Brady and Belichick before anyone else, and rightly so. They were a lethal combo of a superstar quaterback and genius head coach. When you watched the Patriots march through the playoffs year after year, it was Brady and Belichick who were talked about the most since the QB and coach are always right in the thick of things. Kraft definitely deserves credit, but no owner is going to outshine their star QB and head coach. When we look back on the Chiefs dynasty, no one will mention Clark Hunt over Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Lastly, I think it’s fair to say that some voters are jealous of the success the Patriots had and are salty because they consider the Pats to be cheaters. They see this as an opportunity to “get back” at the Pats, because Kraft is the one central member of the team they can get away with doing it to. Brady is guaranteed to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, because if he wasn’t, then it would completely delegitimize the prestige of the NFL Hall of Fame. Even Belichick, who is the least likable of the three, really has to get in first ballot. He is widely known as a football genuis and the greatest coach of all time. He has more Super Bowls than any other head coach and was the coach and architect of the greatest dynasty in the NFL’s history. Not putting him in right away, or damn near close to that, would just make the voters look petty and once again, delegitimize the prestige of the Hall of Fame.

I think Kraft is the greatest owner in NFL history and will soon get into the Hall of Fame. He just needs to stop trying so hard.

Bill Belichick Biography Review

For anyone interested in learning more about Bill, I highly recommend Belichick: The Making of the Greatest Football Coach of All Time by Ian O’Connor.

It gives an in depth look at the upbringing of Belichick as a kid, college student, and his early coaching days. The books takes you through his high and lows and helps you get a better understanding of why Belichick was the way he was. It is unbiased and neither attacks nor hypes up Bill. As a Pats fan, I absolutely loved it, but I think any football fan would enjoy it.

Patriots Season Preview

The Patriots are currently at the beginning of a full on rebuild so expectations are low. Hopefully last year was rock bottom and we see improvement this year. The biggest thing we need to see is improvement offensively. I don’t know how much Drake Maye will play, but we obviously want him to look good if he does. I think Maye will start playing around the mid season mark so the Pats can see what they have in him. The young wide receivers and offensive lineman we have ideally get experience and develop a lot this year too. The offense will likely start slow but gain momentum as the season goes on.

The defense has been a strength so we want them to keep playing well. Expect a great season from Christian Gonzalez who played well before a season ending injury last year. It will also be interesting to see if anyone can replace Matthew Judon as a premier pass rusher. The Pats defense should be at worst average and will be the strength of the team.

Finally, we want to see that Jerrod Mayo can coach. He is replacing the greatest coach of all time so it doesn’t get harder than that. As a part of the dynasty as a player, he knows what it takes to win here so I have belief that he can have a similar positive impact that DeMeco Ryans had on the Texans last year.

I think the Patriots go 6-11 and finish last in their division. In addition to rebuilding, they have the hardest schedule in the NFL, so they get no break whatsoever. This should net them a top 10 draft pick and allow them to get another great young player to help build their team up. This year might be tough at times, but unlike last year we should have some things that give us hope for a great future.

The Unique Careers of Curly Lambeau and George Halas

Curly Lambeau and George Halas had unheard of careers in the NFL that will never be replicated. Both of these men were players, coaches, and owners (sometimes all 3 at the same time) for their respective teams. Looking at the modern NFL and seeing how that would be absolutely impossible to do today makes these feats even more incredible.

Lambeau founded the Packers in 1919 in his hometown of Green Bay, WI. He played on the team from 1919-1929 and was named to the 1920s All-Decade NFL Team. The Packers joined the NFL in 1921 and he was a player-coach from 1921-1929, before retiring as a player.

He continued coaching the Packers until 1949, winning 209 games and 6 NFL titles. He is tied for being the longest tenured coach in NFL history with Tom Landry and is tied with George Halas and Bill Belichick for the most NFL championships by a coach.

Lambeau won 226 games total as a coach, was part of the first NFL Hall of Fame class in 1963, and was named to the NFL’s 100th Anniversary All-Time Team. The Packer’s stadium was named Lambeau Field in 1965 and bears the same name to this day.

George Halas co-founded the NFL and took ownership of the Chicago Bears in 1921. The Chicago native played for the Bears from 1920-1928 and was a member of 1920s All-Decade Team.

From 1920-1967, he coached the Bears 4 separate times for a total of 40 years. He was a 2-time AP Coach of the year, won 6 NFL titles as a coach (tied for an NFL record), and 318 games (3rd all-time). He won two additional NFL titles while owning the Bears.

Similar to Lambeau, he was part of the first NFL Hall of Fame class in 1963, and was named to the NFL’s 100th Anniversary All-Time Team. He is nicknamed “Papa Bear,” due to his everlasting connection with the team and the NFC championship trophy is named after him.

Best Patriots Players to Suffer the Logan Mankins Curse

Most people are probably asking: “What is the Logan Mankins Curse?” The Logan Mankins Curse refers to a player who played for the Pats during the Brady-Belichick era, but did not win a ring. I call it the Logan Mankins Curse because he was drafted by the Pats in 2005 (right after they won 3 Super Bowls from 2001-2004) and was traded away weeks before the 2014 season (in which the Pats won the first of 3 Super Bowls from 2014-2018). I want to be clear: this is not named after him as a slight or because he was bad. Logan Mankins is a Hall of Fame worthy player and one of the best Pats of all time. His career with them just happened to be during the 9 season span they didn’t win (2005-2013).

I will be ranking players based on how good they were with the Pats, not how good their careers were overall.

1. Randy Moss, WR

One of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history and he was arguably at his best with the Pats. It’s such a shame they couldn’t get a ring for an all-time great player.

2. Logan Mankins, Guard

As talked about in the intro, this guy was a beast. He was a six time All-Pro with the Pats and he deserved a ring more than anyone else on this list.

3. Wes Welker, WR

A better regular season version of Julian Edelman, Welker was the perfect complement to Randy Moss and thrived while playing with Brady. He came up short twice with the Pats.

4. Aaron Hernandez, TE

He is now remembered for the awful things he did off the field more than anything else. On the field, he was super talented and along with Gronk gave the Pats a devastating TE combo.

5. Brandon Meriweather, Saftey

He was a very underrated player and could absolutely lay guys out. People don’t play the game like him anymore due to rule changes.

6. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Running Back

An all-time nickname (Law Firm), hard running style, and lack of fumbling made him a great fit in New England. He brought that great hard-nosed running style before we had LeGarrette Blount.

7. Danny Woodhead, Running Back

He was such a gritty and talented pass catcher who complemented the Pats playing style so well.

8. Aqib Talib, Corner Back

He only played here a year, but was an All-Pro and Pro Bowler for us.

9. Brandin Cooks, WR

He also came in for just a year, but helped us get to a Super Bowl as our WR1 when Edelman was out in 2017.

10. Matt Cassell, QB

He was better after the Pats, but still managed to come in and lead the Pats to 11 wins after Brady went down in 2008.

Bonus Fun Fact: In doing the research for this blog, I realized that during the 2010 season, the Pats had Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Deion Branch, Kevin Faulk, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez all at the same time. I know that some players were early in the careers and some later, but to have all that talent on the same team is crazy. And it’s no surprise Brady won MVP that year.