CFB Week 1 Reaction

Florida at 14 Utah

Utah is simply a better team than Florida. Utah showed their depth with two backup QBs playing well for them and a defense that shut Florida down.

Florida just made too many mistakes and needs to be more disciplined. False starts, bad punts, having two guys with the same number on the field, fielding punts backwards inside the 5. You name something dumb and Florida probably did it. And their mistakes kept coming at crucial times and ultimately sank them.

17 TCU vs. Colorado

I was flat out wrong about Colorado. They completely matched up with TCU and had way more chemistry than I thought they would. I still think they are overhyped, but look to be better than I expected.

Colorado’s Travis Hunter is the real deal. First time I’ve seen him play and he looks like he could play in the NFL on either side of the ball. They just need to ensure they don’t play him too much and run him into the ground.

Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders also looked much better than I thought he would. Threw a great deep ball and would’ve had even better numbers if not for a couple drops.

Colorado RB Dylan Edwards can absolutely fly. It looks he’ll be a great weapon for Coach Prime for years to come.

South Carolina vs. 21 North Carolina

UNC’s defense stepped up big time and shut down a great USC offense. Their pass rush and run defense was exceptional and if they can keep playing this way, UNC has a shot to win the ACC.

UNC QB Drake Maye had a solid start to the year. He wasn’t perfect, but one of his interceptions was not his fault and I think he’ll play much better for the remainder of the season.

This should be a rivalry game that’s played every year. The passion for the border war was great and the winner gets to say they’re the “real Carolina” for the year.

8 FSU vs. 5 LSU

Both teams clearly had jitters in their first game and got off to rocky starts. FSU shook them off and looked like a CFP team. LSU did not. The most surprising thing was how FSU completely bullied LSU and was way more physical than them.

FSU WR Keon Coleman is amazing. He carried FSU to victory and should be a first round pick next year.

Duke vs. 9 Clemson

Wow! The last game of the weekend produces the most shocking upset. Duke to its credit played clutch defense and scored when they needed to, but this game was not as lopsided as the score suggests.

Clemson is a better team than they showed, but they need to figure some things out. Their offense really had no spark and they completely failed to capitalize in the red zone.

Game/Betting Picks

Game Picks this week: 2-3 (4-3 overall)

Spread Picks this week: 3-2 (5-2)

O/U Picks this week: 2-3 (2-5)

CFB Week 1 Predictions

Week 0 was a great warmup, but the big matchups start this week for college football.

14 Utah vs. Florida

This is a better Thursday Night Game than most of the NFL matchups last season. It was an exciting game last year and hopefully, this year will be the same. Florida has a great rushing attack, but I don’t think they’ll be able to go toe to toe with Utah, especially in Salt Lake City. Even with Cam Rising out, I see Utah winning, covering the spread (-4.5), and the over hitting (44).

17 TCU vs. Colorado

Coach Prime’s debut! I think Deion is a great coach and will eventually make Colorado a much better program. However, TCU comes into the game with more momentum from last year than CO and is just flat out better. I think TCU covers the spread (-20.5) and the over hits (59.5).

South Carolina vs. 21 North Carolina

If not for that big game on Sunday night, this would be the game of the weekend. A battle of the Carolinas. Drake Maye vs. Spencer Rattler. North Carolina comes in as the favorite and both teams are led by their great QB and offenses. A lot of people are picking USC to win, but I think UNC wins, covers the spread (-2.5), and the over (63.5) easily hits in what should be a shootout.

8 FSU vs. 5 LSU

GAME. OF. THE. WEEK. Two powerhouses on the rise with CFP hopes. Both teams return great quarterbacks and are loaded with talent. I give the edge to LSU to win and cover (-2.5) mainly due to having the better coach in Brian Kelly. I also think the under hits (57.5).

Duke vs. 9 Clemson

On paper, this may not look like a great game, but Duke won nine games last year and at least should put up a fight. This is the perfect opening game for Clemson as they play a respectable opponent, but one they should beat. I think Clemson wins but doesn’t cover the spread (-13) and the under (55.5) hits.

Other Interesting Things to Look For

I always find it funny how big some spreads are in the first couple weeks of the CFB season when you have CFP contenders going against far inferior opponents. Biggest one I could find is Alabama -39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee which is equal to the smallest over/under: Northwestern vs. Rutgers 39.5. Would you bet on either of those games?

CFB Week 0 Reaction

Couldn’t be happier that CFB is back. Below are some thoughts on the weekend.

13 Notre Dame vs. Navy

Notre Dame messed up by not wearing more Ireland-themed jerseys. Some Kelly green jerseys would’ve absolutely slapped. I did like the Irish Flag on the classic gold helmets though.

I really like Marcus Freeman and think he’ll be very successful at Notre Dame. Seems very energetic and his players absolutely love him.

The economic impact of the game on Dublin was $159 MILLION. That’s crazy and shows how there is nothing else like football on this planet and I love it.

Notre Dame should play in Ireland every year. The atmosphere was incredible.

Jason Garret should not be on TV. He is painfully awkward and brings nothing to the broadcast. I think I’d rather just have silence than listen to him stumble his way through irrelevant points.

6 USC vs. San Jose State

Caleb Williams is still amazing. Zachariah Branch also looks like an electric weapon for the Trojans.

As much as we heard about how USC rebuilt its defense, they still looked pretty bad and just allowed 28 points to San Jose State (I just found out this school existed earlier this week). The offense is going to have to continue to carry the team.

The fact this game was on the PAC-12 network and the only streaming services that have it are Sling and Fubo is exactly why the PAC-12 is dying.

Bonus: Swamp Kings Review

The Urban Meyer Florida Gators needed a documentary and Netflix delivered. I feel like those Gator teams get overlooked a little because they were sandwiched right between the early 2000s USC teams and the Saban Bama Dynasty, but this doc puts into perspective how good these teams were. If you haven’t seen it, go watch it.

Overall

Going to keep track of my game picks and betting picks throughout the year.

Game Picks: 2-0

Betting Picks: 2-2 (Spread: 2-0; O/U: 0-2)

2023 College Football Predictions

I admittedly know the NFL much better than CFB, so these predictions will not be as extensive or in depth as my NFL ones. But I got nothing to lose, so I mine as well make them:

CFP Seeds

1: Georgia Bulldogs

The back to back National Champions have a new QB and have lost a lot of talent the past two drafts. However, a cupcake schedule, amazing coach, and roster still loaded with talent warrants Georgia winning the SEC and being the top seed in the CFP again.

2: Ohio State

Ohio State will also have to break in a new QB but their coaching and offensive skill players are so good, I see them thriving regardless. We have seen them bring in a new QB countless times and not skip a beat.

3. Clemson

Dabo is still one of the best coaches in all of college football and Cade Klubnik has the chance to be really special for the Tigers. Combining that with a relatively easy schedule and motivation from not making the past two CFP, I see Clemson returning to the Playoff.

4: Michigan:

Unlike many other top programs, Michigan returns a proven starter at QB. They also have one of best running back duos in the country and still have a very physical O-line and defense.

CFP Semifinals

#1 Georgia vs #4 Michigan

In a rematch of the Orange Bowl two seasons ago, I think Michigan finally matches up well with Georgia and gets by them this year.

#2 Ohio State vs #3 Clemson

Ohio State will simply be too explosive and too much for Clemson and will bulldoze its way into the CFP Championship game.

CFP Championship

#2 Ohio State vs #4 Michigan

THE (championship) GAME! In an all-time CFP Final, Michigan gets revenge on Ohio State for beating them earlier in the year and gets their first National Title this century.

Heisman Winner

Drake Maye, QB North Carolina: There is no doubt Maye will put up numbers, but the big question surrounding him winning the award is if his team will win enough. I think they win 9 or 10 games against a pretty weak schedule and that combined with great statistics gives UNC their first ever Heisman winner.

College Football Week 0 Preview

Finally the day has arrived! Football is officially back with the start of Week 0 this weekend. Yes, the games are never amazing, but none the less I am thankful meaningful football is back until February. Here are the main games I’m looking forward to:

#13 Notre Dame vs Navy (In Dublin!!)

I think having Notre Dame play in Ireland is beyond cool. I see them covering the -20.5 spread and the over hitting (51).

#6 USC vs San Jose State

Likely #1 overall pick Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley are back and looking to lead USC to their first College Football Playoff in their last season in the Pac-12. While they will definitely demolish SJSU, I don’t see them covering the 30 point spread or the over hitting this game (64.5).

NFL All-Time Team

Offense

QB: Tom Brady

The Super Bowl wins, the career passing records, the longevity and so much more make Brady the undisputed GOAT.

RB: Barry Sander

This was a tough decision but if you watch Barry Sanders highlights it’s clear why he’s the best running back ever. He was so shifty and made NFL players look like JV players.

WR: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson

Rice is the undisputed GOAT WR and put up mind boggling stats for two decades, maybe none more impressive than having a 1,200 yard season and being an All-Pro at age 40. “Moss” is literally a verb we use to describe an incredible catch by a WR. That tells you everything you need to know about how good Randy was. Johnson is perfectly nicknamed Megatron as he was not human. 6’5” 240 lbs, ran a 4.3 40, could out leap anyone, and dominated despite being on an awful team his whole career.

TE: Rob Gronkowski

He may not have the longevity of other TEs, but when he played, he absolutely dominated. He was unguardable in the passing game, but what really sets his place as the best TE is his willingness and ability to block too. Many older TE could block but weren’t great catchers and many modern TEs are just bigger WRs, but Gronk could do it all.

LT: Anthony Muñoz

The 11x All-Pro and Hall of Famer is the epitome of a perfect left tackle.

LG: Randall McDaniel

McDaniel is not super well-known but was a stalwart at left guard for 14 years.

C: Mike Webster

A star for the Steel Curtain Steelers Dynasty, Webster was part of two All-Decade Teams.

RG: Bruce Matthews

The 10x All-Pro was extremely versatile and could play all over the offensive line.

RT: Joe Thomas

He was a left tackle, but the extremely durable 8x All-Pro played 10,363 snaps in a row and excelled for bad Cleveland teams his whole career.

Defense

Interior DLine: Aaron Donald, JJ Watt

Donald is still active in the league but is still already in the conversation as the greatest defensive player of all time. He has won three DPOY awards and has been wreaking havoc his whole career. Injuries may have cut his prime short, but Watt could make plays from any position on the D-Line and also won three DPOY awards.

Edge Rushers: Lawrence Taylor, Bruce Smith

Lawrence Taylor still lays claim to being the defensive GOAT and is the last defensive player to win MVP. Bruce Smith dominated for two decades and holds the record for most sacks in a career.

Linebackers: Ray Lewis, Mike Singletary, Jack Lambert

As much as I don’t like Lewis, he is the epitome of what a MLB should be and was the heart of a physical Raven’s defense his whole career. Mike Singletary was the man in the middle for the greatest defense in NFL history and won two DPOY awards. Jack Lambert was one of the stars of the Steel Curtain Defense that won four Super Bowls in the 70s.

CB: Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders

With 7th All-Pros and 11 Pro Bowls, Rod Woodson is one of the greatest defensive players ever. Prime Time was as flashy as he was dominant and this team wouldn’t be complete without his swagger and skill.

Safeties: Ronnie Lott, Ed Reed

The heart of the defense for those great 1980s 49ers teams could make plays all over the field. Ed Reed was the ultimate centerfielder and was always a threat to produce a takeaway and take one back to the house.

Special Teams

Kicker: Justin Tucker

With more First Team All-Pro selections than any other kicker and the highest field goal percentage of all time, Tucker is a clear choice.

Returner: Devin Hester

The Windy City Flyer had more return touchdowns than any player in NFL history and could take a kick or punt back to the end zone at any point.

NFL Award Winner Predictions

Continuing with our NFL predictions, we will be predicting NFL award winners and First Team All-Pros for the upcoming season.

MVP: Justin Herbert, QB Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league the past three years and I think this upcoming year will be his best yet. After a year that saw the Chargers deal with many injuries and a disappointing playoff loss, I think Herbert and the rest of the team come back motivated and put up huge numbers offensively. With all the talent Herbert possesses and the great skill players around him, I see him capturing his first MVP.

OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase, WR Cincinnati Bengals

Chase has burst onto the scene his first two years in the NFL and has proved that he is one of the best WRs in the whole league. With an offensive coach and one of the best QBs in the league, Chase will follow his friend Justin Jefferson in winning OPOY in his third year in the league.

DPOY: Micah Parsons, EDGE Dallas Cowboys

After finishing second in DPOY voting the past two years, Parsons will finally capture the award he has come so close to. His versatility and pass rushing skill make him one of the best players in the league and he’ll finally be rewarded with the DPOY.

OROY: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Detroit Lions

I put Gibbs slightly over the Bijan Robinson to win OROY. Both are extremely talented, but I give Gibbs the edge as he will be part of a better offense that is likely to score more than the Falcons, giving Gibbs more opportunities to score touchdowns.

DROY: Christian Gonzalez, CB New England Patriots

Similar to OROY, DROY will be close between Gonzalez and Will Anderson Jr. I think Gonzalez will benefit from being in the perfect situation, with the best defensive coach in the league to make him look good. Anderson will play well, but will likely see double teams as he is already the best defensive player on Houston’s defense.

COY: Doug Pederson, HC Jacksonville Jaguars

After taking over the dumpster fire that Urban “Fraud” Meyer left in Jacksonville, Pederson led the Jags to a playoff birth. This season, I think he helps the Jags capture the two seed in the AFC and win COY as a result.

Offensive All-Pros

QB: Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

For the same reasons I see Herbert winning MVP, I also see him being First Team All-Pro

RB: Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns)

Chubb has been a standout running back since he entered the league. In the prime of his career and with a great O-line, I see him get the First Team All-Pro nod.

WR: Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals), Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings), Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills)

Chase should be here as he is going to win OPOY. Jefferson has had the best first three years out of any WR in NFL history and I see that success continuing. Diggs has been great since he joined the Bills and I see him having another huge year.

TE: Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)

One of the great TE of all time should continue dominating as the main weapon for Patrick Mahomes.

T: Trent Williams (San Francisco 49ers), Lane Johnson (Philadelphia Eagles)

The two First Team All-Pro tackles from last year are still the two best in the league.

G: Zack Martin (Dallas Cowboys), Joel Bitonio (Cleveland Browns)

Martin is the best lineman in football and Bitonio will deserve a spot while helping pave the way for Nick Chubb.

C: Creed Humphrey (Kansas City Chiefs)

Humphrey and Jason Kelce are the cream of the crop at Center. I see Humphrey finally edging Kelce for First Team All-Pro in his third season in the league

Defensive All-Pros

Edge: Micah Parsons (Dallas Cowboys), Myles Garrett (Cleveland Browns)

Parsons will be here after winning DPOY. Garrett has been a stud since he joined the league and his brilliant play will continue in 2023.

DI: Aaron Donald (Los Angeles Rams), Quinnen Williams (New York Jets)

The potential defensive GOAT, Donald, will bounce back after an injury filled year in 2022. Williams will continue his ascent as one of the best defensive lineman in the NFL for the upstart Jets.

LB: Fred Warner (San Francisco 49ers), Shaquille Leonard (Indianapolis Colts), Roquan Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

Warner is the best linebacker in football on one of the best defenses in the league. Leonard will improve his play from last year and help the Colts win more games than most people are expecting. Smith is in the perfect situation and will build off his stellar year last year.

CB: Jalen Ramsey (Miami Dolphins), Jaire Alexander (Green Bay Packers)

Ramsey has been the best corner the past six seasons and moving to Vic Fangio’s defense might lead to him having the best year he’s ever had. Jaire Alexander should be healthy this year and step up for a Packers team who will need him to be great.

S: Derwin James (Los Angeles Chargers), Minkah Fitzpatrick (Pittsburgh Steelers)

When healthy, Derwin James is one of the best defenders in the NFL and should help the Chargers make the Playoffs. The Steelers will continue to benefit from trading for Fitzpatrick, who is primed to get his fourth First Team All-Pro election this year.

Note: All predictions are as of 7/25/2023

College Football Realignment

Ever since 2021 when Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, major CFB realignment was inevitable. There is too much money to be made or missed out on depending which conference a school is in. By 2024, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington will be in the historically Midwestern Big 1o, while Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah are escaping to the Big 12 to join BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston who move in 2023. Here are some key takeaways and thoughts on future moves:

Give the Big 12 Credit

Since 2021, I feel like we keep hearing how the Big 10 and SEC will both become the two Superconferences and every other Power 5 will die out or fade into obscurity. The Big 12 looked to be at the top of that list after losing their two biggest brands, however, they made incredibly smart moves. The snatched up quality programs in BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, who aren’t national powerhouses but don’t also dilute the the talent in the Big 12. And their latest moves to get Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah ensures their survival. The Big 12 represents the perfect foil to the PAC-12, which is why they will still exist while the PAC 12 limps to a sad death.

There Should be Football Conferences and Conferences for Every Other Sport

I have long thought this way and this latest realignment solidifies that. Big Time College Football is a different animal from every other college sport. The games are on Saturdays and being part of a conference like the Big 10 brings in so much money, that it makes sense for USC Football to be in the Big 10. But I feel for the soccer and water polo teams from USC who now need to fly to New Jersey to play Rutgers on a Tuesday.

There should be unique college football conferences but all other sports should remain in their historic conferences.

Future of the College Football Playoff

The CFP thankfully expanded to 12 teams, but one of the new rules involved giving the 4 highest ranked conference champions byes and the next two highest ranking champions bids. This presumably would be the 5 Power Five Champions and one Group of Five champion each year. We already know the PAC-12 is gone, meaning they will likely amend that rule. But there are still other questions that need to be answered before the CFP Committee can make any big changes:

What will happen to the ACC?

My guess is that teams like FSU, Clemson, and U Miami will leave for the SEC or Big 10. Going back to 1991, FSU, Clemson, and U Miami are the only schools to win national championships that won’t be playing in the Big 10 or SEC come 2024. It makes sense for them to bolt to one of those two conferences rather than stay in the ACC.

When/if that happens, the remaining teams will likely need to decide whether to add the remaining Pac-12 teams and/or schools like SMU or leave themselves. Adding those teams probably doesn’t do much and I think the four other schools who have been reported to really be thinking of leaving (UNC, NC State, Virginia and Virginia Tech) decide to move as well.

From there, I think the remaining Pac-12 and ACC schools either try to sneak into one of the three remaining conferences or accept their fate and settle for a non Power Three conference.

How much realignment will the Group of Five conferences go through?

Some realignment has already happened, but if more continues there could be fewer and weaker non Power Three conferences that may change the CFP committee’s mind on guaranteeing a Group of Five champion gets a bid.

Notre Dame’s Decision

Notre Dame has long held out as an Independent, mainly to cash in on its solo TV deal it gets to sign. With their current deal expiring in 2 years, its unlikely they sign a deal to top the $80-100 million BIG 10 schools are expected to get starting in 2025. I think they see the writing on the wall and join the conference because MONEY.

Final Thoughts

What a crazy past week/couple of years it’s been for college football. It shows why sports are the best: it is pure chaos and the ultimate reality TV series. I personally love it and can’t wait to see how it all plays out.

2023 NFC Predictions (Plus Super Bowl Pick)

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 13-4, 1st in NFC East, 2nd Seed in NFC

Losing both coordinators is tough, but the Eagles still have everything they need to make another run at a Super Bowl title. Jalen Hurts will look to build off an All-Pro season while still having an excellent crop of weapons in AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Godert and the best offensive line in football. Their great defense lost Javon Hargrave but still returns Haason Reddick, Darius Slay, Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham and adds maybe the best player in the draft in Jalen Carter. Overall, the Eagles may have the best roster in the NFL and should dominate the weaker NFC.

Dallas Cowboys: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East, 5th Seed in NFC

The Cowboys are the definition of the team that always looks good on paper but doesn’t follow through in real life. Dak Prescott is a solid QB, but will never be in that elite tier and Mike McCarthy is a pretty good coach but not great. Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, and a great O-line will help make up for Dak’s shortcomings. Their defense will likely be great once again led by Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, Stephon Gilmore, and Demarcus Lawrence and the Cowboys as a whole will be a good team, just not a great one.

Washington Commanders: 7-10, 3rd in NFC East, Miss Playoffs

The Commanders constantly have a talented team but don’t have the QB they deserve. Sam Howell has potential but is extremely inexperienced and their O-line is one of the worst in the league. WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson make up one of the best and most underrated WR duos in the league. As someone who watched Jahan Dotson in college, he is a game breaker and I am extremely high on him. The strength of this team lies in their D-line which is the best in the league. Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathon Allen, and Montez Sweat are all capable of playing at Pro Bowl levels when healthy. They will be tough to play against but it may end up being Ron Rivera’s last season as the new ownership might be fed up with losing and looking for a change.

New York Giants: 5-12, 4th in NFC East, Miss Playoffs

The Giants are in for a rough year. Brian Daboll proved he is a great coach but the team does not have the talent to repeat what they did last season. Daniel Jones is a a quarterback making $40 million a year when he should be making more like $20-25 million. He really was not that good last year, having for just 3,205 yards, 15 TDs, and 92.5 rating. With their star offensive weapon Saquon Barkley clearly frustrated with the the team due to his contract situation, Jones will have to be relied on a lot more this year and that doesn’t bode well. The addition of Darren Waller will help if he can stay healthy but outside of him Jones does not have much to work with. Defensively, Dexter Lawrence had a breakout season and young players like Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux have potential but their defense still is not very good.

NFC North

Detroit Lions: 10-7, 1st in NFC North, 3rd seed in NFC

The Lions won eight of their last ten games last season and will look to carry that momentum into this year. Say what you want about Jared Goff, but he is a consistent quarterback and gives me very heavy Kurt Cousins vibes, as in he probably won’t win a Super Bowl but you can constantly make the playoffs with him. New RB Jahmyr Gibbs is a great addition to an offense that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams (after he returns from his 6 game gambling suspension), and a great O-line. DE Aidan Hutchinson should be even better after 9.5 sacks last year for a defense that will be pretty average overall.

Minnesota Vikings: 9-8, 2nd in NFC North, 6th Seed in NFC

Coming off one of the weirdest and most entertaining seasons in NFL history, the Vikings will surely regress. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will lead a talented offense that lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen but added Jordan Addison and returns TJ Hockenson. They were not good defensively last year and lost some solid veterans in Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, and Za’Darius Smith so the offense will really need to carry the team again.

Chicago Bears: 8-9, 3rd in NFC North, Miss Playoffs

I have long been a Justin Fields supporter who thinks he will be a great NFL QB and this year is make or break for him. Either he puts together a great year and helps the Bears contend for the playoffs or flounders and shows he isn’t a starting QB in the NFL. I predict the former and think Fields makes his first Pro Bowl while leading the Bears within a game of the 7th seed. DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool are a solid WR trio and the O-line should be improved. The offense must carry as defensively the Bears will likely have a bottom 10 defense in the league.

Green Bay Packers: 6-11, 4th in NFC North, Miss Playoffs

After losing Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams back to back years, the Packers are in for a rude awakening. Jordan Love will likely not perform well as he has been riding the bench for three years. They have a good O-line and a great running back duo in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon but their strong rushing attack won’t make up for an inexperienced QB and receiving options. They are solid defensively, but will be hurt by Rashan Gary still having to recover from a torn ACL. Matt LaFleur is a good coach but this team will experience growing pains this year.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 9-8, 1st in NFC South, 4th Seed in NFC

Despite not having a great coach in Dennis Allen, the Saints have the best roster and quarterback in the worst division in football and that should be good enough to win the division. Derek Carr may not be as good as he once was, but is still a capable starter. Alvin Kamara will likely face a suspension but Jamaal Williams should be good enough in relief. At WR Chris Olave and a hopefully healthy Michael Thomas are a good duo that helps mitigate a bad O-line. Their defense is old but talented and should at the very worst not be a detriment to the team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South, Miss Playoffs

As Patriots fans can tell you, it is never easy to replace the greatest football player of all time at QB, especially when Baker Mayfield is his replacement. WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will need to continue to be great to help make up for the total lack of running game the Bucs have. Similar to the Saints, the Buccaneers defense is old but talented and should be solid this year.

Carolina Panthers: 5-11, 3rd in NFC South, Miss Playoffs

The Panthers will have a big rebuilding year this year. Bryce Young is talented, but I think he is too small to be the answer as their franchise QB. I don’t see the Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen signings making big impacts and I think the offense will underwhelm. Brian Burns leads a below average defense that won’t be doing Young any favors.

Atlanta Falcons: 4-13, 4th in NFC South, Miss Playoffs

The QB situation is still not great and I don’t think Desmond Ridder is the answer. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are an exciting young core of skill players. Pitts is a beast and I see him bouncing back this season in a big way. The young skill players plus a good O-line give Atlanta hope for the future, but not until they get the right QB. Their defense was poor last year and doesn’t appear to be getting any better.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 14-3, 1st in NFC West, 1st Seed in NFC

With Brock Purdy on track to start Week 1, the 49ers are sitting pretty with one of the best coaches in the league and maybe the best roster. Brock Purdy may not be the most dynamic player, but he proved last year that he is the perfect QB for this offense. He doesn’t try to do too much and spreads the ball to their talented skill players Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Sammuel, and George Kittle. They are absolutely stacked defensively with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner leading the charge and making this one of the bets units in the league.

Seattle Seahawks: 9-8, 2nd in NFC West, 7th Seed in NFC

The Seahawks and QB Geno Smith shocked people last year by winning 9 games and making the Playoffs. I don’t think Geno will play as good next year, but they have a great coach in Pete Carroll and really talented skill group in Kenneth Walker, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Their defense should be improved this year and they are led by one of the best secondaries in football.

Los Angeles Rams: 7-10, 3rd in NFC West, Miss Playoffs

It’s amazing how just one year ago, the Rams were the reigning Super Bowl Champs and now they are probably not even a playoff contender. Sean McVay is still one of the best coaches in the league, but outside of Matt Stafford, Cooper Krupp, and Aaron Donald, this team truly is awful. Their best course of action would be to trade that trio and hope to draft Caleb Williams or Drake May. If they don’t, then McVay is such a good coach, he can likely lead them to more wins the the roster really should produce.

Arizona Cardinals: 3-14, 4th in NFC West, Miss Playoffs

This season will be brutal for the Cardinals, but their future will benefit. QB Kyler Murray will miss some time and his future with the team is unclear. They have some solid skill players offensively, but no one who is a real game breaker. Defensively, their best player Budda Baker wants out of Arizona and their defense really needs an overhaul.

2023 NFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round

1 SF: Bye
2 PHL vs 7 SEA: 2 PHL Wins
3 DET vs 6 MIN: 6 MIN Wins
4 NO vs 5 DAL: 4 NO Wins

Divisional Round

1 SF vs 6 MIN: 1 SF Wins
2 PHL vs 4 NO: 2 PHL wins

NFC Championship Game

1 SF vs 2 PHL: SF Wins NFC

Final NFC Thoughts:

The NFC is by far the more inferior conference with only two real contenders in the Eagles and 49ers. Outside of those two teams, anything could happen in terms of other teams making the playoffs, but I feel confident that barring injuries, the 49ers and Eagles will meet in the NFC CG again.

Super Bowl LVIII

SF vs CIN: CIN wins the Super Bowl

In a great game between 2 teams that have come close to winning recently, I think Joe Burrow and all that offensive talent overcome the loaded 49ers defense and bring Cincinnati their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Note: All predictions as of 7/23/2023

2023 NFL AFC Predictions

I am back and planning on posting every Sunday for the extended time being and possibly adding in a 2nd day during the week as well. To jump back into things, we’ll start with my 2023 AFC predictions:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: 12-5, 1st in AFC East, 4th Seed in AFC

The AFC East got a lot more interesting this offseason, but the Bills will win the division because they still have the best roster and QB in the AFC East. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will once again help Buffalo have one of the best offenses in the league and the James Cook/Damien Harris duo will help take the burden off Allen and not force him to try to be Superman all the time. Their defense ranked 2nd in PPG last season should and benefit from Von Miller and Tre’Davious White ideally playing full seasons this year. Overall, Buffalo is getting slept on more than a team that has won 37 games and three division titles the past three seasons should be.

New York Jets: 11-6, 2nd in AFC, 5th seed in AFC

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets probably had the most interesting offseason of any team and with it comes massive expectations. I see them having a tough start but finishing hot just like the 2020 Buccaneers and Tom Brady. Once Rodgers gets settled in, the Jets massive upgrade at QB will pair well with 2nd year studs Breece Hall and Garret Wilson, while the 4th ranked scoring defense from last year is still anchored by Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.

New England Patriots: 9-8, 3rd in AFC East, Miss Playoffs

As a Patriots fan this hurts to write but here it goes: The Patriots have the worst quarterback and BY FAR the worst skill players in their division and in today’s NFL that is a death sentence. Belichick is such a great coach that their defense and special teams will be great and the addition of Bill O’Brien will help Mac Jones and the rest of the offense. However, it won’t be enough to get them in the playoffs in what will probably end up being Belichick’s last season.

Miami Dolphins: 8-9, 4th in AFC East, Miss Playoffs

Miami has more speed on offense than any other team in the NFL with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. But just like the Flash isn’t the best superhero, the Dolphins are not the best team in this division and the main reason why is their QB Tua Tagovailoa. The combination of question marks around his play and his injury history lead me to not having the Dolphins in the playoffs. His concussion history and a below average offensive line will lead to his his health being under a microscope and I worry he could miss time this year. Defensively, they will improve with Vic Fangio and Jalen Ramsey joining the team, but I don’t think it gives the boost this team needs to make the playoffs.

AFC North:

Cincinatti Bengals: 12-5, 1st in AFC North, 3rd Seed in AFC

I don’t know what people are smoking if they don’t think the Bengals are the best team in this division. Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will continue to terrorize defenses this year with what is probably the best combination of skill players in the entire league. They lost some solid players defensively but still support a solid cast. Despite the fact they have two Conference Championship game appearances and a Super Bowel appearance the past two seasons, I think they still feel they have something to prove and they have as good a chance as anyone of winning the Super Bowl next season.

Baltimore Ravens: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North, 6th Seed in AFC

The Ravens have been a great regular season team since Lamar Jackson took over and I see that continuing. They consistently have one of the best rushing attacks and offensive lines in the game and the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will help the passing game. Their defense should once again be in the Top 10 and if they stay healthy they will win double digit games and make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8, 3rd in AFC North, Miss Playoffs

One word I would use to describe the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers: OVERHYPED. People are saying the Steelers will magically be some great team just because they had a strong finish to the year last season, going 7-2 after their Bye. What people don’t mention is that six of their wins in that stretch were against teams who won 7 or fewer games and that their offense was one of the worst in the league last season. I don’t see it improving much as Kenny Pickett showed very few signs of looking like a quality starting QB, Najee Harris has averaged under 4 Y/A in both of his first two seasons, and their offensive line is slightly above average. I like their receiving options in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson, and Pat Freieruth but I don’t see them making up for Kenny Pickett’s lack of talent. Defensively, Cam Hayward, TJ Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick should help the team have a top 10 defense, but I don’t see the Steelers making the playoffs.

Cleveland Browns: 8-9, 4th in AFC North, Miss Playoffs

The fate of this team will come down to Deshaun Watson’s play at QB. He was a great player before he sat out for year and a half but showed the rust last year. I think he will play better this year, but guys who go 700 days without playing football usually do not come back as good as they were before. Kevin Stefanski is a great coach and Nick Chubb and that fantastic offensive line will be a big help for Watson. Defensively Myles Garret is a beast, but outside of him the defense is not that special. All things told, I think the Browns are an average team and miss the playoffs.

AFC South:

Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5, 1st in AFC South, 2nd Seed in AFC

I think the Jaguars will be one of the best teams in the league next season. Despite going 9-8 last season, the Jags will improve due to their great coach Doug Pederson getting another year with the team to get comfortable and Trevor Lawrence continuing to improve. Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk should continue to make plays offensively and the addition of Calvin Ridley will be huge as well. Their defense does not have any big names, but finished a respectable 12th in points allowed. Combine this with a truly awful division and the Jaguars will surprise people next year.

Indianapolis Colts: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South, Miss Playoffs

The Colts are one of those teams who had just been a quarterback away for the last couple years until they imploded last season and fired Frank Reich. His replacement, Shane Steichen, is a perfect hire as he is a young offensive guy who has helped turn Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts into NFL stars. At QB, while I don’t think he’ll begin the year as a starter, I have high long-term hopes for Anthony Richardson and see him taking over at some point this season. In the meantime, Gardner Minshew is a solid QB who I feel like has never gotten a fair shake and can hold down the fort while needed. After a disappointing, injury filled year I think Jonathon Taylor bounces back and has a great season and I see the offensive line restoring themselves to being an elite unit. Offensively, they could use another receiver opposite Michael Pittman Jr., but they must make do with what they have. Defensively, DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard lead a unit that should improve from a poor performance last season. Overall, while I don’t see them making the playoffs, I think the Colts will surprise some people this year.

Tennessee Titans: 7-10, 3rd in AFC South, Miss Playoffs

After three straight playoff appearances under Mike Vrabel, the Titans had a tough season last year and that will continue into 2023 due to lingering questions around the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill is extremely average, Malik Willis showed very little promise, and Will Levis is an unknown. Derrick Henry will have to continue to carry this team despite an awful offensive line, though the signing of Deandre Hopkins helps add another skill player who can actually make a difference. Defensively, this defense will still be in the bottom half of the league. Vrabel is a great coach and should help them get more wins than this roster really should.

Houston Texans: 2-15, 4th in AFC South, Miss Playoffs

The Texans are in for another rough season. I do not understand their draft logic by taking CJ Stroud and trading away their first round pick next year to draft Will Anderson Jr. He is a great player, but why not draft him with the 2nd pick and then try to go for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye next year, who both project to be much better than Stroud. Stroud put up great college numbers but he was throwing to 1st round draft picks at WR for his whole career and he doesn’t have the athleticism that the great young QBs tend to have in the NFL today. I am a big believer that John Metchie II will be a good NFL WR, but the offense is not dynamic and the O-line is not great outside of Laremy Tunsil. Defensively, Will Anderson Jr. should be a stud and Derrick Stingley Jr. has potential, but outside of them this defense is really bad. DeMeco Ryans is a smart coach, but in today’s NFL I think teams need to hire head coaches with offensive backgrounds, especially if they are trying to develop a young QB.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4, 1st in AFC West, 1st Seed in AFC

Complete shocker: I’m picking the Chiefs to win the AFC West and be the 1 seed in the AFC. It is hard for me to admit, but the team just gives me Brady-Belichick Patriots vibes. I didn’t feel that way until last year when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid led the Chiefs to another Super Bowl after letting go of a superstar WR and relying on average players and young guys at WR, RB, and defense. That is precisely what the Pats did later in Brady’s career as it got to the point where it didn’t matter who Brady was throwing to, the offense would be good and Belichick would coach up guys to play better than they were. Enough about the greatest dynasty of all time though, let’s talk about the new potential dynasty in town. It would be unfair to act like its all Mahomes and Reid as Travis Kelce is one of the greatest TE of all time who makes it easier to not have stars at WR and Chris Jones is one of the best defensive players in the league right now. Offensively, they should be as good as any team in the league and defensively, their young players from last year should be improved making this defense better, but even then they only need to be just good enough with Mahomes and Reid leading the charge. If you are a Chiefs fan, sit back and enjoy the next decade, if not then you should be a little sacred.

Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7, 2nd in AFC West, 7th seed in AFC

I am very high on the Chargers as I think the only thing they are missing is a great coach. That is obviously important, but they are too talented to not win double digit games and make the playoffs. I think Justin Herbert is the 2nd best QB in the league behind Mahomes and this year he will play his way into the MVP conversation and maybe even win it. Rookie Quentin Johnson joins Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams as weapons for an offensive who can put up points on anyone. The O-line will be one of the best in the league led by a healthy Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley. On defense, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, JC Jackson, and Derwin James Jr. lead an extremely talented group that will play better than last year. This team dealt with tons of injuries last year and I think they make the playoffs and will be a team no one wants to see once January comes around.

Denver Broncos: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West, Miss Playoffs

I have long been a Russell Wilson stan as I think he is a great quarterback and last year was an exception rather than a rule. Sean Payton will obviously help the team, but unless Russ is more willing to use his legs to run and roll out in the pocket, I don’t think he’ll return to his elite self. Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and and Courtland Sutton are good offensive weapons, but have not proven they can stay constantly healthy. They added Frank Clark to a solid defense that includes Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons on the back-end so they should see improvement there. Overall, there are many question marks with this team and I don’t see them making the playoffs, but they will be a tough team to play against, especially at home.

Las Vegas Raiders: 5-11, 4th in AFC West, Miss Playoffs

Last season did not go well for Josh McDaniels and the Raiders and it will only get worse this year. I don’t know what it is about Josh McDaniels, but as great an OC as he is, he is just as bad of a coach. This is probably his last chance to ever be a head coach unless he replaces Belichick for the Pats. Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid starting QB when he plays but is nearly guaranteed to get injured. The fact he is already starting the year with injuries is not a good sign for a team with no backup plan at the position. Josh Jacobs had an amazing season last year and Davante Adams is a top 3 WR in the league but both are unhappy with the team and that likely gets worse as the losses mount this year. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones are one of the best edge rushing duos in the league, but the defense is awful outside of them. In addition to the poor state of the franchise, now that Dan Synder is out of the NFL, look for the league to oust Mark Davis next. Las Vegas is such a great city for an NFL team with tons of potential and I don’t think Mark Davis is the guy they want running the goldmine that is the Las Vegas Raiders.

2023 AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round

1 KC: Bye
2 JAX vs 7 LAC: 7 LAC Wins
3 CIN vs 6 BAL: 3 CIN Wins
4 BUF vs 5 NYJ: 4 BUF Wins

Divisional Round

1 KC vs 7 LAC: 1 KC Wins
3 CIN vs 4 BUF: 4 CIN wins

AFC Championship Game

1 KC vs 3 CIN: 3 CIN Wins AFC

Final AFC Thoughts:

I understand the NFL has a lot of parity and about half the teams that make the playoffs any given year did not make it the previous year. My predictions have 6 of the 7 teams who made the playoffs last year making it this year in the AFC. The reason I am okay with that is because I picked the teams with the 7 best quarterbacks making the playoffs. In today’s NFL, QB is the most important thing so I am fine betting on the 7 best QBs. Maybe Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson bounce back to their elite past selves and prove they are top 7 QBs in the AFC or maybe a team like the Pats or Steelers sneaks in due to great coaching and defenses leading their team to the playoffs. Overall, I see it being more likely the 7 best QBs lead their teams to the playoffs.