Private Equity Updates

The PE train keeps on rolling for the NFL.

Rumors are that the 49ers and Giants will be selling 10% of their teams and both will likely break the valuation record for an NFL team set by the Eagles in December. I’m guessing they will sell to private equity firms being that they are based in areas with close proximity to PE firms.

Another team that I am guessing may take private equity money soon is the Cincinnati Bengals. Why? They have one of the “poorest” owners in the league worth only $925 million dollars and the organization is notoriously cheap. They usually do not guarantee money for contracts outside of the first year (Joe Burrow being an exception). However, they have said that they want to resign Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson to big deals.

A quick detail about NFL contracts is that all guaranteed money is paid up front or put in escrow at the time the deal is signed. When Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million extension a couple years ago, the deal included a whopping $219 million in total guarantees. That means the Bengals owner needed $219 million in cash on hand per league rules. That is about 25% of his net worth. The team had to sign away naming rights to their stadium in order to finance the deal.

If the Bengals resign all 3 of the above guys, that could be another $150 to $200 million in cash needed and about $400 million just to those three and Burrow. Forbes did rank the Brown ownership family of having $3.9 billion total, so they could likely pitch in as a whole family to pay for it. However, if that doesn’t happen then the team will probably sell a stake to a PE firm for some instant cash.

CNBC ranked the Bengals as the least valuable franchise, but they are still worth $5.25 billion. Teams also tend to sell at valuations higher than their stated value, so the Brown family could likely get about $550 million for selling a 10% stake, which would go a long way towards helping pay for the contracts and keeping the Bengals core together.

Moving forward, outside of a team building a new stadium or completing renovations, I think teams that have to pay massive contracts are the next most likely candidates to take PE money.

15 Minute Blitz Episode 21

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

15 Minute Blitz Episode 20

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

Final Stats for Betting and Game Picks

This was another successful year of picking winners of games as well as spread and over/under picks.

I went 49-23 picking who would win each game I covered for a winning percentage of 68.1%. My all-time record is 87-39 for a winning percentage of 69.0%.

For spreads, I went 43-25-4 and hit on 63.2% of those picks. All-time, I am 82-39-5 for a hit percentage of 67.8%.

For over/unders, I went 37-35 and hit on 51.4% of those picks. All-time, I am 66-59-1 for a hit percentage of 52.8%.

QB Tiers after the Postseason

Brady Tier: All-time greats in their primes

  • Patrick Mahomes*, Kansas City Chiefs
  • Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
  • Lamar Jackson*, Baltimore Ravens
  • Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Rivers Tier: Franchise QB who you are happy paying top tier money and building around

  • Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
  • Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
  • Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
  • Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
  • Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
  • CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Cousins Tier: Solid player who you are happy to have, but don’t want to pay to dollar for. Unfortunately, you may end up having to pay them top dollar or pretty close

  • Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
  • Russell Wilson*, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
  • Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
  • Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
  • Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
  • Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
  • Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Fitzmagic Tier: Bridge QB or washed player

  • Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
  • Aaron Rodgers*, New York Jets
  • Any Las Vegas Raiders QB
  • Any Cleveland Browns QB
  • Any New York Giants QB

TBD Tier: Jury is still out

  • Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (Trending up)
  • Drake Maye, New England Patriots (Trending up)
  • Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (Trending up)
  • Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (Trending up)
  • JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (Neutral)
  • Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons (Neutral)
  • Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (Trending Down)
  • Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (Trending down)
  • Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (Trending down)

An asterisk indicates a player who I believe has already clinched a spot in the Hall of Fame.

Super Bowl Reaction

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

One of the most shocking Super Bowls ever. This game was never close.

It’s so interesting how impactful one game can be on people’s legacies. If the Chiefs win they would threepeat and cement themselves as maybe the greatest dynasty ever. People would probably be calling Mahomes the GOAT, he would be 4-1 in Super Bowls, and he would only be 3 away from catching Brady. People would likely be calling Andy Reid the greatest coach ever too.

Instead, Mahomes falls to 3-2 in Super Bowls and both of his losses were absolute blow outs. In 5 Super Bowls, he has thrown 7 INTs. In 10 Super Bowls, Brady threw just 6 INTs. Andy Reid now falls to 3-3 in Super Bowls compared to Belichick being 6-3.

And here’s the thing, we don’t know if they’ll ever win it again. They probably will, but you never know. Brady and Belichick went 10 years without winning the Big One. It happens.

On the flip side, instead of Hurts falling to 0-2, in the Super Bowl, he now gets the win and was Super Bowl MVP. He has the most rushing TDs by a QB in playoff history. And he’s only 26 and on a stacked team that will continue to compete. 22 other QBs have won Super Bowl MVP and 16/22 are either in or going to the HOF. That puts Hurts in rare company. Hurts now is the only other QB in his “generation” other than Mahomes to win the Super Bowl and/or Super Bowl MVP.

Game/Betting Pick Results

Game: 0-1 (49-23 This Season) (87-39 All-Time)

Spread: 0-1 (43-25-4) (82-39-5)

O/U: 1-0 (37-35) (66-59-1)

15 Minute Blitz Episode 19

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

NFL Private Equity

Similar to other leagues, the NFL has started to allow private equity firms to invest in their teams. I personally am not a fan of PE firms investing in teams that I care about because I think they have a short term view that is completely focused on making money, while a good owner has a long term view that is focused on winning.

The NFL has normally restricted PE firms from investing. However, they are dealing with the side effects of their own monumental success. Team values have ballooned in recent years and now it is extremely difficult to find one or a couple individuals wealthy enough to purchase an NFL team. PE firms have lots of money and are drooling to cash in on the NFL’s success.

Thankfully, the NFL has strict rules on PE firms investing, most notably that they cannot own more than 10% of a team and they get no governance rights in the team. One rule I do not support is that each fund or consortium will be able to do deals with up to six teams. This could present a strong conflict of interest. The time horizon is also very short as the minimum hold period for these funds will be six years.

Despite any reservations I or any other fans have, this probably is a necessity. The NFL is the last major US sports league to allow PE investing. The NBA, MLB, and NHL allow private equity ownership of up to 30%.

Something that also furthers the NFL’s need for PE investment is that teams often sell for much more than their estimated value. In August, the Eagles were valued by Forbes at $6.6 billion. However, according to the WSJ, in early December, the Eagles sold 8% of their franchise to two family investment groups, with one of those deals valuing the club at $8.3 billion.

WSJ also reported that Ares Management bought 10% of the Miami Dolphins in a deal that valued the organization at $8.1 billion, even though the Dolphins were valued at $6.2 billion by Forbes. The Bills also received a 10% investment from PE firm Arctos for an undisclosed amount.

The overpayments just raise the need for investments from outside money like PE firms. The NFL says these investments will be used for projects like building stadiums, which is good for fans and teams overall.

15 Minute Blitz Episode 18

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz