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It is always interesting to see where great players went to college. We always here how the Big 10 and SEC are the best conferences, but do they produce the best players? I looked at the top offensive QBs and skill players to see here they come from.

The tiers of colleges I am using:

Tier 1: SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame

Tier 2: ACC/Big 12

Tier 3: FBS Non-Power 4

Tier 4: FCS or below

QBS: My Top 12 QBs (refer to my QB tiers blog)

SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame: 7

ACC/Big 12: 3

FBS Non-Power 4: 1

FCS or below: 1

As you can see, the top QBs are spread out in terms of where they are coming from school wise. Yes the top tier produces more than others, but Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson (the last 3 MVPs) all aren’t from that tier. Overall, about half of the top 12 QBs in the league come from the top tier of schools

RBs: Players who ran for 1,000 yards or 10 TDs (also Christian McCaffrey): 18 players

SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame: 12

ACC/Big 12: 4

FBS Non-Power 4: 2

FCS or below: 0

12 of 18 players came from the top tier here.

WRs and TEs: Players who had for 1,000 yards receiving, 100 receptions, or 10 TDs (also DK Metcalf, Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, and Brandon Aiyuk)

SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame: 26

ACC/Big 12: 7

FBS Non-Power 4: 2

FCS or below: 1

Here we have 35 of the best WRs and TEs and 26 are from the top tier.

All told, about 75% of the top receivers and 67% of the RBs come from the top tier of schools. Meaning teams should want to look there when drafting skill players.

The Celtics sold for a valuation of $6.1 billion, the most ever for a North American sports team, to a group led by PE titan Bill Chisholm. Co-owners Wyc Grousbeck and Steve Pagliuca bought the team for $360 million in 2002, so they made an insane return on their investment. It is unfortunate to see such great owners sell the team, but Grousbeck will be the franchise CEO through the 2027-28 season, which will help with the transition.

One of the great things about the current owners is that they were willing to spend a ton, similar to the LA Dodgers owners. They have the best roster in the league and have guys under contract for the foreseeable future. The first test of the ownership group is how willing they are to keep the team together. You have to imagine if a group is willing to spend over $6 billion for a team, that they will fork over money to keep the team together.

Reports are also that the NBA was waiting to get serious about expansion until this sale, since it sets a new floor for NBA franchises. Similar to most team sales, the Celtics sold over the estimated price of $5.5 billion.

One of my favorite sports topics is relocation and expansion in the Big Four Sports Leagues. In this post, I break down cities that should get new teams.

MLB

I think the MLB will soon expand from 30 to 32 teams. There are many teams vying for a new team. I think 5 new cities should get teams, with 2 expansions and 3 relocations.

I think the 3 relocations will need to happen before expansion. The first team that should relocate is the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite having decent success, the Rays have had terrible attendance, even for playoff games. With the new stadium project in the Tampa area collapsing and Tropicana Stadium having its roof ripped off, Tampa needs to leave soon.

I think it makes sense for them to move to Nashville. There is already a lot of momentum for a new team to go to Nashville and be called the Nashville Stars. There also is rumors that the new Tennessee Titans stadium complex will have room for a new MLB stadium which puts it in a great location. Nashville is a good sports town and the Rays moving there solves a current issue while also keeping allowing them to stay in the AL East (for now).

I also think the Chicago White Sox should relocate. They are having tons of issues with finding a new stadium and with current attendance issues. There is already another team in Chicago and they would be a prime candidate to move. I think Salt Lake City would be their best option. It isn’t as big as other potential expansion cities, but it already has 2 other sports teams and is a sports crazy town. They also have a big group trying to bring the team there and have a lot of momentum to bring a team there.

A potential wild card move I could see if the LA Angels moving to Portland. Portland is a big sports city/area without and MLB team. The Angels are second citizens in their town and could be due for a move.

The two expansion cities I see for the MLB are Charlotte and Austin/San Antonio. Charlotte would give the MLB access to the Carolinas market, which is a pretty big baseball area. Austin/San Antonio is a massive dual market they could get into.

* This is all assuming that the Oakland As do end up moving to Las Vegas.

Based on the moves above, here are the new divisions I imagine once 32 teams are in the league:

American League

AL East

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

AL North

Minnesota Twins

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Guardians

AL South

New Austin/San Antonio Team

Houston Astros

Texas Rangers

Colorado Rockies

AL West

LA Angels/ New Portland Team

Las Vegas Athletics

Seattle Mariners

New Salt Lake City Team (formerly Chicago White Sox)

National League

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Pittsburgh Pirates

NL North

Chicago Cubs

St Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

NL South

Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Nashville Stars (formerly Tampa Bay Rays)

New Charlotte Team

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres

NBA

I think the NBA should expand to Seattle and Las Vegas. Both cities have arenas that a new team could move into and both are great sports towns. An NBA team would also give both cities four sports teams and solidify them as massive sports towns. The new NHL teams in both cities have done well and can serve as a blueprint for a new NBA team.

I also think the Memphis Grizzlies could move to Nashville. Nashville is a better sports town and the Predators have an arena they could move into pretty easily.

The Grizz could move into the Eastern Conference and the new Seattle and Vegas teams would join the Western Conference.

NHL

There are multiple NHL cities that could potentially lose teams like the San Jose Sharks or Buffalo Sabres. However, with the recent NHL expansion/relocation, there aren’t many places for these teams to go. Hockey is mainly a northern sport, so I don’t think expanding to a southern city is smart. Potentially, a Canadian city like Quebec City or a northern US City like Milwaukee or Portland could be on the list. I think for right now, the NHL will sit pat and see how the new expansion/relocation pans out before making any more moves.

NFL

I don’t think there is any chance the league expands anytime soon. The current structure of 32 teams works so well that there is no real benefit to adding new teams. And while there are teams that don’t fit in great to their current cities, I don’t see any leaving soon. The Jaguars would be the main team that might have left. But they recently announced plans to do a $1.4 billion renovation of their current stadium so they aren’t moving any time soon. And if they did, where would they go?

London is not a realistic option. The travel that a team would have to go through being based in London is absolutely brutal and I don’t think any player or coach would be a fan of that. Plus, being in a foreign country throws in the complications of taxes, foreign exchange, and politics further complicating things for a team based there.

Outside of that, there are potential US cities that could field an NFL team. However, none are such great options that any team is likely dying to move there. You do not hear much about NFL teams looking to relocate because most, if not all, are happy enough with their current situations

Patriots Latest Moves

The Pats cut longtime center and captain David Andrews. They replaced him with former Vikings center Garrett Bradbury. It now looks like the middle and right side of the Pats line is solidified. The left side is still completely up for grabs. Hopefully, the Pats draft a left tackle and then one of their other recent picks can hold down the left guard spot.

I’m not sure if Bradbury will be much of a replacement. And without a doubt we will miss the leadership of David Andrews. Overall, there has been a big leadership drain the past couple years and the only two guys left who won a Super Bowl with the Pats are Ja’Whaun Bentley (1) and Joe Cardona (2).

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins signed massive deals to stay in Cincy. Chase signed a 4-year deal for $161 million ($112 million guaranteed) which is the largest non-QB contract ever. Higgins got a 4-year deal for up to $115 million, the highest for WR2 in NFL history.

I understand that this does not solve their defensive issues, but it is good to see that the Bengals will spend money to keep their best players in town. They can now focus on extending Trey Hendrickson and drafting a lot of defensive guys.

Derek Stingley Jr.

Stingley Jr signs a record deal for a cornerback with a 3-year, $90M extension ($89 million guaranteed). I don’t know if Stingley deserves to be the highest paid CB ever, however I think this is a great move. With Sauce Gardner looking for a deal, the smartest thing to do is just get the deal over with. Teams (like the Bengals) that wait always end up paying the price down the road. The Texans decided they wanted Stingley long term and now have him for the next 5 years. By the time the deal is over, if he keeps playing like last year, it will look like a bargain.

In addition to Harold Landry, The Pats added LB Robert Spillane, CB Carlton Davis, OT Morgan Moses, and DT Milton Williams.

Spillane gives us a much needed LB and Davis gives us a good CB2. Morgan Moses helps bolster offensive tackle and protect Drake Maye. DT Milton Williams is a big splash signing for us and will immediately improve our D-Line.

Money wise, we overpaid a little for the guys we got, but they were positions of need and we had the money to spend, so no harm.

The focus on defense leads me to assume we are going big on offense in the draft.

Other Signings

It’s sad the Pats missed out on WR Chris Godwin, but he should thrive back in Tampa.

Sam Darnold goes to the Seahawks which is surprising given the recent moves the Seahwaks have made.

The Jets sign Justin Fields for a 2 year, $40 million deal. I think it’s a great signing for the Jets and he could be another Sam Darnold if all goes well.

The Commanders keep going all in, trading for great LT Laremy Tunsil and a 2025 fourth round pick in exchange for a third and seventh round pick in 2025 and a second and fourth round pick in 2026. This only helps them continue to grow and I love the aggressiveness.

The Bills bring in Joey Bosa, which is a great signing and gives them a veteran edge rusher who can get to the quarterback.

With free agency coming up, here are some guys the Pats should consider going after. Free agency tends to have a few stud players and some solid veteran guys who can fill gaps. The tricky part is not overpaying guys who are too old or not that good.

Chris Godwin, WR

Godwin is an All-Pro wide receiver who was having a great year until being hurt this past season. Despite, coming off an injury, I think he’s the best player in this free agency group. The Pats should give him a deal around 3 years, $75 million for $50 million guaranteed. He would instantly be our WR1 and a huge upgrade, who still has some great years left.

Khalil Mack and/or Joey Bosa, Edge

The Pats should sign one or both to a one year, mostly guaranteed deal to help bolster up their defense. They are good players who can provide the Pats some pass rushing help this year. The Pats should mainly focus on offense in this draft, so some one year defensive rentals are needed.

Milton Williams, DT

I am weary of overpaying for guys who get the “Super Bowl Boost” (aka they help their team win a Super Bowl and cash in the next year in free agency.) In this case and the player below, he is a young guy who is worth taking the risk on with all the money we have.

Josh Sweat, Edge

Sweat is a little older than Williams, but is more of a pass rushing threat than Williams. He would be a guy we could build around similar to Matthew Judon a few years ago.

DJ Reed, CB

Reed would give us a quality 2nd corner opposite Christian Gonzalez and help bolster our secondary and pass defense.

The PE train keeps on rolling for the NFL.

Rumors are that the 49ers and Giants will be selling 10% of their teams and both will likely break the valuation record for an NFL team set by the Eagles in December. I’m guessing they will sell to private equity firms being that they are based in areas with close proximity to PE firms.

Another team that I am guessing may take private equity money soon is the Cincinnati Bengals. Why? They have one of the “poorest” owners in the league worth only $925 million dollars and the organization is notoriously cheap. They usually do not guarantee money for contracts outside of the first year (Joe Burrow being an exception). However, they have said that they want to resign Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson to big deals.

A quick detail about NFL contracts is that all guaranteed money is paid up front or put in escrow at the time the deal is signed. When Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million extension a couple years ago, the deal included a whopping $219 million in total guarantees. That means the Bengals owner needed $219 million in cash on hand per league rules. That is about 25% of his net worth. The team had to sign away naming rights to their stadium in order to finance the deal.

If the Bengals resign all 3 of the above guys, that could be another $150 to $200 million in cash needed and about $400 million just to those three and Burrow. Forbes did rank the Brown ownership family of having $3.9 billion total, so they could likely pitch in as a whole family to pay for it. However, if that doesn’t happen then the team will probably sell a stake to a PE firm for some instant cash.

CNBC ranked the Bengals as the least valuable franchise, but they are still worth $5.25 billion. Teams also tend to sell at valuations higher than their stated value, so the Brown family could likely get about $550 million for selling a 10% stake, which would go a long way towards helping pay for the contracts and keeping the Bengals core together.

Moving forward, outside of a team building a new stadium or completing renovations, I think teams that have to pay massive contracts are the next most likely candidates to take PE money.

This was another successful year of picking winners of games as well as spread and over/under picks.

I went 49-23 picking who would win each game I covered for a winning percentage of 68.1%. My all-time record is 87-39 for a winning percentage of 69.0%.

For spreads, I went 43-25-4 and hit on 63.2% of those picks. All-time, I am 82-39-5 for a hit percentage of 67.8%.

For over/unders, I went 37-35 and hit on 51.4% of those picks. All-time, I am 66-59-1 for a hit percentage of 52.8%.

Jerrod Mayo

Mayo’s firing was a pretty shocking outcome.

On one hand, he did a terrible job coaching. He consistently had no emotion on the sidelines and looked like he was not doing anything, even though he was not calling plays on either side of the ball. Off the field, he consistently gave terrible press conferences that only hurt the team.

With the exception of a few players like Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez, we saw very little improvement from young players.

Reports that have come out since he was fired not help his cause. It seems like some players lost faith in him during the SPRING and no one has really defended him.

On the other hand, he was dealt as bad a card as you could have gotten. He replaced the greatest coach of all time. He had one of the worst rosters in the league, a career backup then a rookie starting at QB, and dealt with as many injuries as any team in the league.

The Athletic sums up how new people in the organization were too: “Patriots had a first-time front-office leader (Wolf), a first-time head coach (Mayo), a first-time defensive coordinator (Covington), a first-time offensive play caller (Van Pelt), a first-time special teams coordinator (Jeremy Springer), a first-time offensive line coach (Scott Peters), a first-time wide receivers coach (Tyler Hughes) and a first-time linebackers coach (Dont’a Hightower). It’s not that any one of them was a bad hire individually but that all of them together led to too many people figuring out their jobs on the fly.”

I’m not sure how much better he could’ve done in terms of record. However, when you combine the record with the lack of development and bad press conferences, that’s what likely led to him being fired.

While I do think one year is too little time to fire a head coach, between his time as an assistant and player, the organization clearly knows him well enough to make a decision. And if he is not the guy, they need to pivot as quickly as possible. Especially when the right guy was available…

Mike Vrabel

This was a great hire as he was the best coach available. The only two guys I would even want were him or Ben Johnson. Vrabel is a culture builder who knows the Patriots organization. He is the exact guy we need to lead us.

The one advantage Ben Johnson would have is being a super creative offensive playcaller that could benefit Drake Maye. However, getting Josh McDaniels gives us an equally gifted playcaller who we don’t have to worry about getting a head coaching gig.

Vrabel has a history of success with poor QB play. Drake Maye will be the best QB Vrabel has ever had, so that excites me for what they can do together.

A quick side note: I think this hire will work out. However, if it does not, the Pats need to move on completely from the dynasty era and stop trying to hold on to remnants of it. They did not do a coaching search when hiring Mayo and just gave him the job. Now this search was very limited and you can tell they only had Vrabel in mind. If Vrabel does not work, they need to do a massive search and bring in an offensive guy who is an outsider of the organization.

Offense

We did not know what to expect out of Drake Maye this year, but boy did he deliver. Given the fact that he had a rookie HC and OC, who both didn’t seem to know what they were doing and given the fact the Pats had the worst skill position players and offensive line in the league this year, I think Maye was the most impressive rookie QB.

Now they need to get him some weapons and build up the O-line in free agency and the draft, while continuing to develop their young WR and linemen on the team.

The sky is the limit for Maye.

The rest of the offense is up in the air. No one is that special or really stood out. Some of their young WRs like Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte showed promise and hopefully will still develop. TE Hunter Henry is a good security blanket for Maye. There isn’t much else to say beyond that, especially when it comes to the offensive line.

Defense and Special Teams

The Pats defense dealt with a ton of injuries, but they have some good players. Christian Gonzalez showed he’s one of the best CBs in the league. DE Keion White is solid. Hopefully, DT Christian Barmore will be back and healthy next year. There is some promise in the unit as a whole.

Special teams is looking solid between returner Marcus Jones and ST Brenden Schooler. Kicker may be a position they evaluate.

Draft and Free Agency

OFFENSE. OFFENSE. OFFENSE.

That NEEDS to be the theme of this offseason. You have a stud QB on a rookie deal that is still developing. Go get him some weapons and some good offensive linemen. There are projected to be many talented veteran WRs and OL available in free agency. The Pats have the cap space to overpay for a one or two year contract for some of these guys.

Future

The Patriots currently have a great head coach and great young QB. That is a recipe for success. Now they need to figure everything else out. This offseason will be huge in terms of charting their path moving forward. A great free agency and draft can lead to a team that can compete to make the playoffs next year, compete to make a run in the playoffs in 2026, and from 2027 and on, be a consistent contender.

NOTE: Updated 1/27/25 to reflect the Pats getting McDaniels as OC

AFC:

Wild Card Round

2 Buffalo Bills vs 7 Denver Broncos

3 Baltimore Ravens vs 6 Pittsburgh Steelers

4 Houston Texans vs 5 Los Angeles Chargers

Divisional Round

1 Kansas City Chiefs vs 5 Los Angeles Chargers

2 Buffalo Bills vs 3 Baltimore Ravens

Championship Game:

1 Kansas Chiefs vs 2 Buffalo Bills

NFC

Wild Card Round

2 Philadelphia Eagles vs 7 Green Bay Packers

3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 6 Washington Commanders

4 Los Angeles Rams vs 5 Minnesota Vikings

Divisional Round

1 Detroit Lions vs 4 Los Angeles Rams

2 Philadelphia Eagles vs 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Conference Championship

1 Detroit Lions vs 2 Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl

2 Buffalo Bills vs 1 Detroit Lions

Champion: Detroit Lions