Free Agency Recap Week 2

Patriots Latest Moves

The Pats cut longtime center and captain David Andrews. They replaced him with former Vikings center Garrett Bradbury. It now looks like the middle and right side of the Pats line is solidified. The left side is still completely up for grabs. Hopefully, the Pats draft a left tackle and then one of their other recent picks can hold down the left guard spot.

I’m not sure if Bradbury will be much of a replacement. And without a doubt we will miss the leadership of David Andrews. Overall, there has been a big leadership drain the past couple years and the only two guys left who won a Super Bowl with the Pats are Ja’Whaun Bentley (1) and Joe Cardona (2).

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins signed massive deals to stay in Cincy. Chase signed a 4-year deal for $161 million ($112 million guaranteed) which is the largest non-QB contract ever. Higgins got a 4-year deal for up to $115 million, the highest for WR2 in NFL history.

I understand that this does not solve their defensive issues, but it is good to see that the Bengals will spend money to keep their best players in town. They can now focus on extending Trey Hendrickson and drafting a lot of defensive guys.

Derek Stingley Jr.

Stingley Jr signs a record deal for a cornerback with a 3-year, $90M extension ($89 million guaranteed). I don’t know if Stingley deserves to be the highest paid CB ever, however I think this is a great move. With Sauce Gardner looking for a deal, the smartest thing to do is just get the deal over with. Teams (like the Bengals) that wait always end up paying the price down the road. The Texans decided they wanted Stingley long term and now have him for the next 5 years. By the time the deal is over, if he keeps playing like last year, it will look like a bargain.

Free Agency Recap Week 1

In addition to Harold Landry, The Pats added LB Robert Spillane, CB Carlton Davis, OT Morgan Moses, and DT Milton Williams.

Spillane gives us a much needed LB and Davis gives us a good CB2. Morgan Moses helps bolster offensive tackle and protect Drake Maye. DT Milton Williams is a big splash signing for us and will immediately improve our D-Line.

Money wise, we overpaid a little for the guys we got, but they were positions of need and we had the money to spend, so no harm.

The focus on defense leads me to assume we are going big on offense in the draft.

Other Signings

It’s sad the Pats missed out on WR Chris Godwin, but he should thrive back in Tampa.

Sam Darnold goes to the Seahawks which is surprising given the recent moves the Seahwaks have made.

The Jets sign Justin Fields for a 2 year, $40 million deal. I think it’s a great signing for the Jets and he could be another Sam Darnold if all goes well.

The Commanders keep going all in, trading for great LT Laremy Tunsil and a 2025 fourth round pick in exchange for a third and seventh round pick in 2025 and a second and fourth round pick in 2026. This only helps them continue to grow and I love the aggressiveness.

The Bills bring in Joey Bosa, which is a great signing and gives them a veteran edge rusher who can get to the quarterback.

Patriots Free Agency Preview

With free agency coming up, here are some guys the Pats should consider going after. Free agency tends to have a few stud players and some solid veteran guys who can fill gaps. The tricky part is not overpaying guys who are too old or not that good.

Chris Godwin, WR

Godwin is an All-Pro wide receiver who was having a great year until being hurt this past season. Despite, coming off an injury, I think he’s the best player in this free agency group. The Pats should give him a deal around 3 years, $75 million for $50 million guaranteed. He would instantly be our WR1 and a huge upgrade, who still has some great years left.

Khalil Mack and/or Joey Bosa, Edge

The Pats should sign one or both to a one year, mostly guaranteed deal to help bolster up their defense. They are good players who can provide the Pats some pass rushing help this year. The Pats should mainly focus on offense in this draft, so some one year defensive rentals are needed.

Milton Williams, DT

I am weary of overpaying for guys who get the “Super Bowl Boost” (aka they help their team win a Super Bowl and cash in the next year in free agency.) In this case and the player below, he is a young guy who is worth taking the risk on with all the money we have.

Josh Sweat, Edge

Sweat is a little older than Williams, but is more of a pass rushing threat than Williams. He would be a guy we could build around similar to Matthew Judon a few years ago.

DJ Reed, CB

Reed would give us a quality 2nd corner opposite Christian Gonzalez and help bolster our secondary and pass defense.

Private Equity Updates

The PE train keeps on rolling for the NFL.

Rumors are that the 49ers and Giants will be selling 10% of their teams and both will likely break the valuation record for an NFL team set by the Eagles in December. I’m guessing they will sell to private equity firms being that they are based in areas with close proximity to PE firms.

Another team that I am guessing may take private equity money soon is the Cincinnati Bengals. Why? They have one of the “poorest” owners in the league worth only $925 million dollars and the organization is notoriously cheap. They usually do not guarantee money for contracts outside of the first year (Joe Burrow being an exception). However, they have said that they want to resign Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson to big deals.

A quick detail about NFL contracts is that all guaranteed money is paid up front or put in escrow at the time the deal is signed. When Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million extension a couple years ago, the deal included a whopping $219 million in total guarantees. That means the Bengals owner needed $219 million in cash on hand per league rules. That is about 25% of his net worth. The team had to sign away naming rights to their stadium in order to finance the deal.

If the Bengals resign all 3 of the above guys, that could be another $150 to $200 million in cash needed and about $400 million just to those three and Burrow. Forbes did rank the Brown ownership family of having $3.9 billion total, so they could likely pitch in as a whole family to pay for it. However, if that doesn’t happen then the team will probably sell a stake to a PE firm for some instant cash.

CNBC ranked the Bengals as the least valuable franchise, but they are still worth $5.25 billion. Teams also tend to sell at valuations higher than their stated value, so the Brown family could likely get about $550 million for selling a 10% stake, which would go a long way towards helping pay for the contracts and keeping the Bengals core together.

Moving forward, outside of a team building a new stadium or completing renovations, I think teams that have to pay massive contracts are the next most likely candidates to take PE money.

Final Stats for Betting and Game Picks

This was another successful year of picking winners of games as well as spread and over/under picks.

I went 49-23 picking who would win each game I covered for a winning percentage of 68.1%. My all-time record is 87-39 for a winning percentage of 69.0%.

For spreads, I went 43-25-4 and hit on 63.2% of those picks. All-time, I am 82-39-5 for a hit percentage of 67.8%.

For over/unders, I went 37-35 and hit on 51.4% of those picks. All-time, I am 66-59-1 for a hit percentage of 52.8%.

Pats Season Recap and Future

Jerrod Mayo

Mayo’s firing was a pretty shocking outcome.

On one hand, he did a terrible job coaching. He consistently had no emotion on the sidelines and looked like he was not doing anything, even though he was not calling plays on either side of the ball. Off the field, he consistently gave terrible press conferences that only hurt the team.

With the exception of a few players like Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez, we saw very little improvement from young players.

Reports that have come out since he was fired not help his cause. It seems like some players lost faith in him during the SPRING and no one has really defended him.

On the other hand, he was dealt as bad a card as you could have gotten. He replaced the greatest coach of all time. He had one of the worst rosters in the league, a career backup then a rookie starting at QB, and dealt with as many injuries as any team in the league.

The Athletic sums up how new people in the organization were too: “Patriots had a first-time front-office leader (Wolf), a first-time head coach (Mayo), a first-time defensive coordinator (Covington), a first-time offensive play caller (Van Pelt), a first-time special teams coordinator (Jeremy Springer), a first-time offensive line coach (Scott Peters), a first-time wide receivers coach (Tyler Hughes) and a first-time linebackers coach (Dont’a Hightower). It’s not that any one of them was a bad hire individually but that all of them together led to too many people figuring out their jobs on the fly.”

I’m not sure how much better he could’ve done in terms of record. However, when you combine the record with the lack of development and bad press conferences, that’s what likely led to him being fired.

While I do think one year is too little time to fire a head coach, between his time as an assistant and player, the organization clearly knows him well enough to make a decision. And if he is not the guy, they need to pivot as quickly as possible. Especially when the right guy was available…

Mike Vrabel

This was a great hire as he was the best coach available. The only two guys I would even want were him or Ben Johnson. Vrabel is a culture builder who knows the Patriots organization. He is the exact guy we need to lead us.

The one advantage Ben Johnson would have is being a super creative offensive playcaller that could benefit Drake Maye. However, getting Josh McDaniels gives us an equally gifted playcaller who we don’t have to worry about getting a head coaching gig.

Vrabel has a history of success with poor QB play. Drake Maye will be the best QB Vrabel has ever had, so that excites me for what they can do together.

A quick side note: I think this hire will work out. However, if it does not, the Pats need to move on completely from the dynasty era and stop trying to hold on to remnants of it. They did not do a coaching search when hiring Mayo and just gave him the job. Now this search was very limited and you can tell they only had Vrabel in mind. If Vrabel does not work, they need to do a massive search and bring in an offensive guy who is an outsider of the organization.

Offense

We did not know what to expect out of Drake Maye this year, but boy did he deliver. Given the fact that he had a rookie HC and OC, who both didn’t seem to know what they were doing and given the fact the Pats had the worst skill position players and offensive line in the league this year, I think Maye was the most impressive rookie QB.

Now they need to get him some weapons and build up the O-line in free agency and the draft, while continuing to develop their young WR and linemen on the team.

The sky is the limit for Maye.

The rest of the offense is up in the air. No one is that special or really stood out. Some of their young WRs like Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte showed promise and hopefully will still develop. TE Hunter Henry is a good security blanket for Maye. There isn’t much else to say beyond that, especially when it comes to the offensive line.

Defense and Special Teams

The Pats defense dealt with a ton of injuries, but they have some good players. Christian Gonzalez showed he’s one of the best CBs in the league. DE Keion White is solid. Hopefully, DT Christian Barmore will be back and healthy next year. There is some promise in the unit as a whole.

Special teams is looking solid between returner Marcus Jones and ST Brenden Schooler. Kicker may be a position they evaluate.

Draft and Free Agency

OFFENSE. OFFENSE. OFFENSE.

That NEEDS to be the theme of this offseason. You have a stud QB on a rookie deal that is still developing. Go get him some weapons and some good offensive linemen. There are projected to be many talented veteran WRs and OL available in free agency. The Pats have the cap space to overpay for a one or two year contract for some of these guys.

Future

The Patriots currently have a great head coach and great young QB. That is a recipe for success. Now they need to figure everything else out. This offseason will be huge in terms of charting their path moving forward. A great free agency and draft can lead to a team that can compete to make the playoffs next year, compete to make a run in the playoffs in 2026, and from 2027 and on, be a consistent contender.

NOTE: Updated 1/27/25 to reflect the Pats getting McDaniels as OC

NFL Playoff Predictions

AFC:

Wild Card Round

2 Buffalo Bills vs 7 Denver Broncos

3 Baltimore Ravens vs 6 Pittsburgh Steelers

4 Houston Texans vs 5 Los Angeles Chargers

Divisional Round

1 Kansas City Chiefs vs 5 Los Angeles Chargers

2 Buffalo Bills vs 3 Baltimore Ravens

Championship Game:

1 Kansas Chiefs vs 2 Buffalo Bills

NFC

Wild Card Round

2 Philadelphia Eagles vs 7 Green Bay Packers

3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs 6 Washington Commanders

4 Los Angeles Rams vs 5 Minnesota Vikings

Divisional Round

1 Detroit Lions vs 4 Los Angeles Rams

2 Philadelphia Eagles vs 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Conference Championship

1 Detroit Lions vs 2 Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl

2 Buffalo Bills vs 1 Detroit Lions

Champion: Detroit Lions

QB Tiers after the Regular Season

Brady Tier: All-time greats in their primes

  • Patrick Mahomes*, Kansas City Chiefs
  • Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
  • Lamar Jackson*, Baltimore Ravens
  • Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Rivers Tier: Franchise QB who you are happy paying top tier money and building around

  • Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
  • Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
  • Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
  • Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
  • Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
  • CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Cousins Tier: Solid player who you are happy to have, but don’t want to pay to dollar for. Unfortunately, you may end up having to pay them top dollar or pretty close

  • Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
  • Russell Wilson*, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
  • Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
  • Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
  • Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
  • Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
  • Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Fitzmagic Tier: Bridge QB or washed player

  • Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
  • Aaron Rodgers*, New York Jets
  • Any Las Vegas Raiders QB
  • Any Cleveland Browns QB
  • Any New York Giants QB

TBD Tier: Jury is still out

  • Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (Trending up)
  • Drake Maye, New England Patriots (Trending up)
  • Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (Trending up)
  • Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (Trending up)
  • JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (Neutral)
  • Michael Penix (Neutral)
  • Bryce Young (Trending Down)
  • Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (Trending down)
  • Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (Trending down)

An asterisk indicates a player who I believe has already clinched a spot in the Hall of Fame.

Benefits of Conference Realignment

I know people have mixed feelings on conference realignment, but I think it’s good for the future of college football. Below are the games we’ve had this year thanks to realignment:

6 Tennessee @ 18 Oklahoma – Week 4

11 USC @ 18 Michigan – Week 4

2 Ohio State @ 3 Oregon – Week 7

4 Penn State @ USC – Week 7

5 Georgia @ 1 Texas – Week 8

1 Oregon @ Michigan – Week 9

Washington @ 6 Penn State – Week 11

Florida @ 5 Texas – Week 11

7 Alabama @ Oklahoma – Week 13

3 Texas @ 20 Texas A&M – Week 14

Oklahoma @ LSU – Week 14

5 Georgia vs 2 Texas – SEC Championship

3 Penn State vs 1 Oregon – Big Ten Championship

17 Clemson vs 8 SMU – ACC Championship

College Football Week 7

South Carolina @ 7 Alabama

Alabama has such a wide range of performance. At their ceiling, they can beat anyone, like when they put up a 28-0 lead on Georgia and beat them. At their floor, they can lose to teams they absolutely should beat, like Vanderbilt. With so many good teams in the SEC, that isn’t the consistency needed to win the conference and win the Natty.

Saturday was the perfect example of their floor where they let a much worse USC team hang around. USC failed on a 2-point conversion to tie the game, despite a wide open receiver their QB simply missed. That should have been the game. Instead, Bama botches the onside kick and gave USC another chance to win the game. If they keep playing this way in the SEC, they won’t make the conference championship.

I also do not see Jalen Milroe as a legitimate NFL prospect. He came into this week as Mel Kiper’s #2 QB which I think is crazy. He is not a consistent enough passer and makes too many poor decisions with the football to be great in the NFL. He is such a good athlete that he may eventually be able to develop into a good NFL QB with the right coach, but it’s a long shot. I think Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers are the clear cut top two prospects and after that there is much more uncertainty.

1 Texas vs 18 Oklahoma

QB Quinn Ewers looked shaky early. He got better as the game went on, but will need to play better if they want to beat Georgia. If he was more settled, this would have been a bigger blow out. There will be noise this week about Arch Manning playing over Ewers. A bad performance against Georgia will only make those voices louder.

Texas’s defense led the way and played great the whole game. They put the offense in position to score so many times. The offense missed many opportunities to put the game away earlier.

Oklahoma’s defense is great, but the offense could not keep up. Their QB should be good once he develops more, but he could not handle Texas’s defense, especially with his top FIVE wide receivers out.

2 Ohio State at 3 Oregon

This game lived up to the hype. Both teams are so even, either could have pulled out the win. I believe these are the two best teams in the Big 10 and they will meet in the championship game, with Ohio State getting revenge.

9 Ole Miss at 13 LSU

Another awesome night game that was overshadowed by the Big 10 showdown mentioned above. LSU saved their SEC title hopes with the win and ended Ole Miss’s chance to make it. The SEC is super close right now and Texas A&M, Texas, and LSU are the only SEC teams without a conference loss.