Category: NFL

Greatest NFL Dynasties of All Time

It’s been a while but I’m back. This time I’m posing the question what makes an NFL team a dynasty in the Superbowl Era? You often hear dynasty talk when it comes to the NBA but not as much with the NFL. To me, there are four clear-cut dynasties (in order from best to worst): 1. 2001-Present Patriots 2. 1981-1994 San Fransisco 49ers 3. 1974-1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 4. 1992-1995 Dallas Cowboys.

My loose criteria for a dynasty is at least 3 Superbowls in a 6-year span, but as long as there is at least some common factor a dynasty can continue past that six-year span. For example, given that Brady and Belichick have been at the helm for all six Superbowls and that the fact that the Patriots have consistently been contenders and made Superbowls (never gone more than 4 yrs w/o making a Superbowl) I consider them a dynasty. In the case of the 49ers they had two different quarterbacks and coaches, but George Seifert took over and won while Montana was still the quarterback and players like Jerry Rice played and won with both coaches and quarterbacks so there’s enough similarity to include that 5th championship in the dynasty. The Steelers and Cowboys make the list because they fit in my original criteria for a dynasty.

After those four, the case can be made for some other teams based off one’s personal criteria.

The 1960-1967 Packers won 5 championships in 8 years and made another in that span. However, only the last two were Superbowls and the other 3 were NFL championships in the pre-Superbowl era so I didn’t include them seeing as they only won 2 Superbowls and that doesn’t fit my criteria.

Some might say the 1971-1973 Dolphins are a dynasty as they won two Superbowls and made three in a 3-year span, but once again they don’t have my three Superbowl requirement. Winning two Superbowls in a short period of time makes you a great team, but not a dynasty.

The team that comes the closest to a dynasty but is just short is the 1976-1983 Oakland Raiders who won three Superbowls in eight years. Had they kept the same coach and/or quarterback throughout all of their titles I would be inclined to put them at number 5 on my list. However, there is too little similarity from their first title to their third title for me to include them.

The last team I definitely considered putting on the list was the 1982-1991 Washington Redskins. They won 3 titles and made another in that 10-year span. They have decent similarities with the same coach and few of the same players on all three teams such as Hall of Fame WR Art Monk. However, the fact that all three were so spread out (5 years between the 1st and 2nd title and 4 years between 2nd and 3rd title), they weren’t dominant throughout the entire run (three straight years finishing third in their division), and that there was a different quarterback on all three title-winning teams is what keeps them off of my list.

Overall, the definition of a dynasty varies from person to person. Regardless of whether or not the teams above are considered dynasties, they were great teams that will go down in history as some of the best ever.

 

Patriots vs. Rams Super Bowl LIII Preview​

From ESPN’s Bill Barnwell (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25877288/barnwell-super-bowl-liii-preview-need-know-patriots-rams-2019):

I think we’re going to get a close game, which isn’t exactly going out on a limb when you consider that the point spread is 2.5 points and that each of the Patriots’ eight prior Super Bowl appearances have included a tie or a lead change in the fourth quarter. Even if one of these teams gets up by 10 points in the first half, each has the sort of passing offense capable of catching up quickly.

I lean toward the Patriots, ever so slightly. They’re well-positioned to attack the weakest components of the Rams’ defense with their weapons in the slot, as was the case for the Eagles, who scored 66 points on offense in beating the Rams twice over the past two seasons. There might very well be a scenario like that Seahawks-Broncos game in which Donald makes a big play early and it seems to set the tone for the entire game. It would hardly be shocking if Gurley, healthier after resting for two weeks, punished the Patriots as a receiver. The Rams have tons of top-tier talent.

With Belichick and Brady focused on identifying and exploiting the weaker spots in their lineup, though, I think we see the latter become the first player in NFL history with six Super Bowl rings.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 23

 

My Personal Preview:

Super Bowl LIII has all the makings of a classic Super Bowl matchup. You have two great teams with very different backstories. On one side the Patriots are the greatest dynasty in the history of the NFL. Five Super Bowl wins and nine appearances in 18 years. They are the evil empire that every other fanbase so desperately wants to see fall. On the other side, you have the upstart Rams who just two years ago were one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. Now with a new city, coach, and quarterback, they have the makings of a team that could frequent the Super Bowl for the next 5-7 years. It is also cool that 18 years ago the Patriots were the new kids on the block, while the Rams aka the Greatest Show on Turf were the more established team. Combine that with the fact that both teams are coming off controversial wins and the hype around this Super Bowl is tremendous.

Offensively, both teams were in the top 5 in the league in points and yards per game in the regular season. In the passing game, I have to give the edge to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Neither QB has lit it up this postseason, but in key moments, Brady has been his classic self, making clutch throws and leading his team down the field. Goff has had his moments coming through when needed as well, but when it comes to what QB I’d rather have, it’s definitely Tom Brady.

Both teams also have great weapons in the passing game. On the Patriots side, they have guys like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and James White who are proven gamers who come up big in the postseason. Since Edelman’s breakout 2013 campaign, the Pats are 44-10 when both he and Gronk play, including a 6-1 postseason mark. On the Rams side, Brandin Cooks, Todd Gurley, and Robert Woods lead the way. All three are very capable in the passing game. Take it from a Robert Woods fantasy owner, I believe he is the Ram’s X factor this game. No doubt a lot of attention will go to Cooks and Gurley, and Woods is just so consistent- he’s had 5 receptions and/or 70 yards receiving yards in 16 of the Ram’s 18 games- that I believe he’ll have a good game. Similarly, with Gronk and Edelman being players the Rams will focus on slowing down, look to Chris Hogan to be the Pats’ X Factor, as he has proven he can go off in the playoffs. While the Ram’s skill players are certainly talented, they aren’t as proven as the Patriot’s counterparts so I’ll give New England the edge in skill players as well.

In the running game, the Rams have a slight edge. It’s always great to see a guy like C.J. Anderson step up big for his team and I see that continuing. I also just can’t see Gurley having another bad game. On the other side, the Pats will continue to pound the ground game unless the Rams prove they can stop it. Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead have been a great 1-2 punch on the ground and the fact that White takes a lot of snaps as well, ensures that all three stay relatively fresh. That being said, look for the Rams to be the better rushing team on Sunday.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Patriot’s offensive line above the Rams, and I’m inclined to agree. Overall, I’ll give the Patriots the nod for having the advantage offensively.

Defensively, both teams were in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed, but the Patriots have the advantage in points allowed, where they were 7th in the league, while the Rams were 20th. This postseason both defenses have done well defending the run, but not the pass. Without a doubt, the Rams have the best individual defensive player in Aaron Donald, the clear Defensive Player of the Year,  who led the league in sacks with 20.5. Bill Belichick and the Pats do a great job of neutralizing the other teams best defensive player so it might be up to other Rams like Ndamukong Suh and Dante Fowler to put pressure on Brady. It’s well known that the teams who do best against the Pats are the ones who can get pressure on Brady with only four or five rushers. For both defenses, one of the main keys of the game is how well each team shuts down the opposition’s run game. It is more important for the Patriots to do this because one of their goals should be to put the ball in Goff’s hands and make him beat you. Stephon Gilmore is good enough to shut down whoever he is covering, making it that much harder for Goff and Co. Overall, I’d say the Rams have the advantage defensively, a big reason being Donald because he’ll either have a big game or take so much attention and help his teammates to play well.

Special Teams wise, I’ll take the Rams over the Patriots because Johnny Hekker is the best punter in the league and Greg Zuerlein has shown he is clutch and has a powerful leg. The Patriots are very disciplined on special teams and can make key plays that give them an advantage. Stephen Gostkowski is a good kicker, but he has had his struggles in big moments. He’s no Adam Vinatieri, however, I believe if it comes down to it, he’ll come up clutch for the Patriots.

Coaching wise, Sean McVay is obviously amazing. However, Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in NFL history, and the Pats have the advantage in the coaching game. In my opinion, the best part about Belichick is how he makes in-game adjustments at half time, which makes the Pats a dangerous second-half team.

Patriot’s Super Bowls are historically close games, so I’m going to say the Patriots beat the Rams 27-21.

Bonus: In terms of bets, I would take the under (56.5) and Pats -2.5. Some of my favorite prop bets include McVay’s age being mentioned over 1.5 times (-175), Gronk scoring a touchdown (Even), and total passing attempts for Brady over 37.5 (-115).

 

 

The NFL’s Contract Dilemma Continues

The Julio Jones contract situation is once again another example of a situation that seems to be more common each year: Player A signs a huge deal that makes him one of the highest paid players at Position X. However, due to the NFL salary cap increasing year by year, the next season/offseason Player B signs a contract that sets a new ceiling for how much players at Position X make. Soon after more guys at Position X sign deals for more or the same as Player A. Now Player A, who only a year or two ago was feeling great about how much money they earned, feels under-compensated, and this creates unnecessary drama for both the player and their team.

Don’t get me wrong I get where Julio and others in his situation are coming from. Football is a brutal game and most guys make the bulk of their career earnings from their 2nd contract. Julio is a top 3 WR and wants to be compensated as such, but what’s happening to him is normal. When Julio signed his contract prior to the 2015 season, he got the 2nd most money ever given to a WR, so he definitely wasn’t underpaid. Now Julio is “only” 9th in annual salary among WR, making $14.3 million a year, just $2.7 million less than Antonio Brown, the highest paid WR in annual money. Julio has made $63 million in his NFL career. By the time his contract ends, he is on pace to have made $97 million, not including endorsements, and will still be 31 years old. Julio and the Falcons have just delayed the problem, which is sometimes all you can do. No doubt they will face this problem again soon, as will many other teams and players.

The unfortunate news is there is no real solution. Star players could sign short-term (1 or 2 years contracts) that are fully guaranteed and continuously make them one of the highest paid players at their position. However, if they were to get injured, it could cost them tens of millions, and in such a physical game like football that’s a risk most players don’t want to take. The alternative to the short-term contracts is to sign a long-term deal that gives them lots of guaranteed money and long-term security. The downside is that by the middle or the end of long-term contracts, some players feel underpaid. The risk-reward of long-term contracts is much better than that of short-term contracts, so most star players choose the long-term option. Because of that, situations like Jones’s will continue to be some of the most intriguing stories surrounding training camp for years to come.

 

 

Who would you rather have: Cam Newton or Ryan Tannehill?

On the surface, the question seems absurd. Cam Newton is Cam Newton. Heisman Trophy Winner, National Champion, #1 overall pick, MVP, the list goes on. On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is… well his resume isn’t as impressive, to say the least. However, if you take a deep dive into their passing statistics, and forget the names, they are basically the same quarterback.

QB 1 season Averages: 3,582 yds, 22.6 TD, 13.4 INT, 58.5% Comp%, 85.3 Rating, 1.68 TD/INT ratio, 4.6% TD%, 2.7% INT%, 7.3 Y/A.

QB 2 season Averages: 3,691 yds, 21.2 TD, 13.2 INT, 62.7% Comp%, 86.5 Rating, 1.61 TD/INT ratio, 4.0% TD%, 2.5% INT%, 7.0 Y/A.

(Shout out to Pro Football Reference for the info those guys basically have every team or player stat you could ever want to know about.)

Looking at that comparison QB 2 beats QB 1 in six out of the nine categories posted. Realistically though, they are so close in every stat other than Comp% you could be satisfied with flipping a coin to decide who to pick.

Reveal time: Newton is QB 1 and Tannehill is QB 2. Other interesting stats are that Newton has just one more 4th Quater Comebacks (13 vs 12) and only 5 more Game Winning Drives (15 vs 10) than Tannehill despite starting 31 more games (108 vs 77).

With all that being said of course I would pick Newton over Tannehill. While I do think Newton is vastly overrated, only looking at passing statistics do not do Cam Newton justice as a player. He has rushed for 4,320 yds (3rd most by a QB) and 54 TDs (Most by a QB) and is well on his way to becoming the greatest rushing QB in NFL history- if he isn’t already. His rushing threat pushes him well past Tannehill in terms of choosing between them. I also like that Newton (65-45-1) has won more than Tannehill (37-40). While their floors are the same, Newton’s ceiling is much higher than Tannehill’s, as proven by his MVP season in 2015.

The point of this blog is that when you take away names and just look at stats it’s crazy how much easier it is to compare players and see who is overrated and who is underrated.