This was another successful year of picking winners of games as well as spread and over/under picks.
I went 49-23 picking who would win each game I covered for a winning percentage of 68.1%. My all-time record is 87-39 for a winning percentage of 69.0%.
For spreads, I went 43-25-4 and hit on 63.2% of those picks. All-time, I am 82-39-5 for a hit percentage of 67.8%.
For over/unders, I went 37-35 and hit on 51.4% of those picks. All-time, I am 66-59-1 for a hit percentage of 52.8%.
Brady Tier: All-time greats in their primes
Rivers Tier: Franchise QB who you are happy paying top tier money and building around
Cousins Tier: Solid player who you are happy to have, but don’t want to pay to dollar for. Unfortunately, you may end up having to pay them top dollar or pretty close
Fitzmagic Tier: Bridge QB or washed player
TBD Tier: Jury is still out
An asterisk indicates a player who I believe has already clinched a spot in the Hall of Fame.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
One of the most shocking Super Bowls ever. This game was never close.
It’s so interesting how impactful one game can be on people’s legacies. If the Chiefs win they would threepeat and cement themselves as maybe the greatest dynasty ever. People would probably be calling Mahomes the GOAT, he would be 4-1 in Super Bowls, and he would only be 3 away from catching Brady. People would likely be calling Andy Reid the greatest coach ever too.
Instead, Mahomes falls to 3-2 in Super Bowls and both of his losses were absolute blow outs. In 5 Super Bowls, he has thrown 7 INTs. In 10 Super Bowls, Brady threw just 6 INTs. Andy Reid now falls to 3-3 in Super Bowls compared to Belichick being 6-3.
And here’s the thing, we don’t know if they’ll ever win it again. They probably will, but you never know. Brady and Belichick went 10 years without winning the Big One. It happens.
On the flip side, instead of Hurts falling to 0-2, in the Super Bowl, he now gets the win and was Super Bowl MVP. He has the most rushing TDs by a QB in playoff history. And he’s only 26 and on a stacked team that will continue to compete. 22 other QBs have won Super Bowl MVP and 16/22 are either in or going to the HOF. That puts Hurts in rare company. Hurts now is the only other QB in his “generation” other than Mahomes to win the Super Bowl and/or Super Bowl MVP.
Game/Betting Pick Results
Game: 0-1 (49-23 This Season) (87-39 All-Time)
Spread: 0-1 (43-25-4) (82-39-5)
O/U: 1-0 (37-35) (66-59-1)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Super Bowl is awesome, but also bittersweet since it’s the last game until September.
In this all-time tough-to-find-a-team-to-root-for matchup, I think the Chiefs clinch the threepeat, cover (-1.5), and the over (48.5) hits.
Similar to other leagues, the NFL has started to allow private equity firms to invest in their teams. I personally am not a fan of PE firms investing in teams that I care about because I think they have a short term view that is completely focused on making money, while a good owner has a long term view that is focused on winning.
The NFL has normally restricted PE firms from investing. However, they are dealing with the side effects of their own monumental success. Team values have ballooned in recent years and now it is extremely difficult to find one or a couple individuals wealthy enough to purchase an NFL team. PE firms have lots of money and are drooling to cash in on the NFL’s success.
Thankfully, the NFL has strict rules on PE firms investing, most notably that they cannot own more than 10% of a team and they get no governance rights in the team. One rule I do not support is that each fund or consortium will be able to do deals with up to six teams. This could present a strong conflict of interest. The time horizon is also very short as the minimum hold period for these funds will be six years.
Despite any reservations I or any other fans have, this probably is a necessity. The NFL is the last major US sports league to allow PE investing. The NBA, MLB, and NHL allow private equity ownership of up to 30%.
Something that also furthers the NFL’s need for PE investment is that teams often sell for much more than their estimated value. In August, the Eagles were valued by Forbes at $6.6 billion. However, according to the WSJ, in early December, the Eagles sold 8% of their franchise to two family investment groups, with one of those deals valuing the club at $8.3 billion.
WSJ also reported that Ares Management bought 10% of the Miami Dolphins in a deal that valued the organization at $8.1 billion, even though the Dolphins were valued at $6.2 billion by Forbes. The Bills also received a 10% investment from PE firm Arctos for an undisclosed amount.
The overpayments just raise the need for investments from outside money like PE firms. The NFL says these investments will be used for projects like building stadiums, which is good for fans and teams overall.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles absolutely beat down the Commanders to advance to their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
You cannot be serious!
I have a lot of issues with the calls the Chiefs have been getting because I have never seen a team get so much help from the officials.
However, winners win and the Chiefs always find a way to win. I respect it and now sadly have to root for the Eagles.
Game/Betting Pick Results
Game: 1-1 (49-22 This Season) (87-38 All-Time)
Spread: 0-2 (43-24-4) (82-38-5)
O/U: 2-0 (36-35) (65-59-1)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
I think the Eagles win, the Commanders cover (+6), and the over (47.5) hits.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
I think the Bills win, cover (+2.5), and the over (48.5) hits.
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