Free Agency Recap Week 2

Patriots Latest Moves

The Pats cut longtime center and captain David Andrews. They replaced him with former Vikings center Garrett Bradbury. It now looks like the middle and right side of the Pats line is solidified. The left side is still completely up for grabs. Hopefully, the Pats draft a left tackle and then one of their other recent picks can hold down the left guard spot.

I’m not sure if Bradbury will be much of a replacement. And without a doubt we will miss the leadership of David Andrews. Overall, there has been a big leadership drain the past couple years and the only two guys left who won a Super Bowl with the Pats are Ja’Whaun Bentley (1) and Joe Cardona (2).

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins signed massive deals to stay in Cincy. Chase signed a 4-year deal for $161 million ($112 million guaranteed) which is the largest non-QB contract ever. Higgins got a 4-year deal for up to $115 million, the highest for WR2 in NFL history.

I understand that this does not solve their defensive issues, but it is good to see that the Bengals will spend money to keep their best players in town. They can now focus on extending Trey Hendrickson and drafting a lot of defensive guys.

Derek Stingley Jr.

Stingley Jr signs a record deal for a cornerback with a 3-year, $90M extension ($89 million guaranteed). I don’t know if Stingley deserves to be the highest paid CB ever, however I think this is a great move. With Sauce Gardner looking for a deal, the smartest thing to do is just get the deal over with. Teams (like the Bengals) that wait always end up paying the price down the road. The Texans decided they wanted Stingley long term and now have him for the next 5 years. By the time the deal is over, if he keeps playing like last year, it will look like a bargain.

Free Agency Recap Week 1

In addition to Harold Landry, The Pats added LB Robert Spillane, CB Carlton Davis, OT Morgan Moses, and DT Milton Williams.

Spillane gives us a much needed LB and Davis gives us a good CB2. Morgan Moses helps bolster offensive tackle and protect Drake Maye. DT Milton Williams is a big splash signing for us and will immediately improve our D-Line.

Money wise, we overpaid a little for the guys we got, but they were positions of need and we had the money to spend, so no harm.

The focus on defense leads me to assume we are going big on offense in the draft.

Other Signings

It’s sad the Pats missed out on WR Chris Godwin, but he should thrive back in Tampa.

Sam Darnold goes to the Seahawks which is surprising given the recent moves the Seahwaks have made.

The Jets sign Justin Fields for a 2 year, $40 million deal. I think it’s a great signing for the Jets and he could be another Sam Darnold if all goes well.

The Commanders keep going all in, trading for great LT Laremy Tunsil and a 2025 fourth round pick in exchange for a third and seventh round pick in 2025 and a second and fourth round pick in 2026. This only helps them continue to grow and I love the aggressiveness.

The Bills bring in Joey Bosa, which is a great signing and gives them a veteran edge rusher who can get to the quarterback.

15 Minute Blitz Episode 23

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

Rundown of Recent NFL News

Myles Garrett New Contract

In a surprising turn of events, Myles Garrett has signed a record deal with the Browns, paying him $160 million over 4 years with $123.5 million in guaranteed money and a no-trade clause.

I do not understand this from both sides. Garrett is basically guaranteeing that he will never win anything in his career. While the Browns are not cashing in on trading their star player during an important rebuilding period. They could have gotten a ton of draft picks to help them fully rebuild their team.

Davante Adams Joins the Rams

He joins the NFC contender on a 2 year deal for $46 million with $26 million guaranteed. This gives the Rams a great receiving core and replaces the gap Cooper Kupp’s departure will have.


Harold Landry to Pats

The contract is for 3 years $43.5 million, $26 million guaranteed. I like the deal, as it gives us a solid pass rusher that Mike Vrabel knows and likes.

Josh Allen Record Deal

Josh Allen had four years left on his current deal, but it gets ripped up to replace it with a six-year, $330 million contract that includes $250 million guaranteed. It is a good deal for both team and player, but sets a bad precendent if other guys on the Bills want to renegotiate before their deal is ending.

Seahawks Rebuilding

The Seahawks had some massive changes and appear to be in full on rebuilding mode. They released franchise great WR Tyler Lockett. They also traded Geno Smith to the Raiders for a third round pick. I think that deal works well for both teams.

Then they traded WR DK Metcalf to the Steelers for a 2nd round pick. The Steelers rewarded him with a 5 year deal for $150 million. While they did overpay for his contract, this gives the Steelers a much needed playmaker that they didn’t give up much draft capital for.

Patriots Free Agency Preview

With free agency coming up, here are some guys the Pats should consider going after. Free agency tends to have a few stud players and some solid veteran guys who can fill gaps. The tricky part is not overpaying guys who are too old or not that good.

Chris Godwin, WR

Godwin is an All-Pro wide receiver who was having a great year until being hurt this past season. Despite, coming off an injury, I think he’s the best player in this free agency group. The Pats should give him a deal around 3 years, $75 million for $50 million guaranteed. He would instantly be our WR1 and a huge upgrade, who still has some great years left.

Khalil Mack and/or Joey Bosa, Edge

The Pats should sign one or both to a one year, mostly guaranteed deal to help bolster up their defense. They are good players who can provide the Pats some pass rushing help this year. The Pats should mainly focus on offense in this draft, so some one year defensive rentals are needed.

Milton Williams, DT

I am weary of overpaying for guys who get the “Super Bowl Boost” (aka they help their team win a Super Bowl and cash in the next year in free agency.) In this case and the player below, he is a young guy who is worth taking the risk on with all the money we have.

Josh Sweat, Edge

Sweat is a little older than Williams, but is more of a pass rushing threat than Williams. He would be a guy we could build around similar to Matthew Judon a few years ago.

DJ Reed, CB

Reed would give us a quality 2nd corner opposite Christian Gonzalez and help bolster our secondary and pass defense.

Rundown of Recent NFL News

Franchise Tags:

Trey Smith and Tee Higgins were the only two players to be tagged yesterday. My first reaction is that I don’t know why the Bengals didn’t just sign Higgins to a contract last year similar to Devonta Smith (3 Years $75 million, $51 million guaranteed). Here’s why:

The number that really matters for contracts is guaranteed money. Last year and this year, the Bengals are paying Tee Higgins about $48 million guaranteed, basically the same amount of guaranteed money Devonta Smith is getting over three years. However, instead of paying him via a contract that shows how much they value him and keeps him, Joe Burrow, and the rest of the team and fanbase happy, they instead look cheap and like they don’t care about what’s best for the team.

And now if they do pay him a contract, it will probably cost more than Devonta Smith’s because each year you wait to sign a player, the more they end up costing because players are constantly resetting the market (Another reason they should have signed Ja’Marr Chase to a deal last offseason too.) The Eagles were in a similar situation to the Bengals last offseason and they handled it very well, giving new contracts to Devonta and AJ Brown. The Bengals are doing the opposite.

My second reaction is that this is bad news for the Pats. With all the cap room we have and no impending big contracts for players on our team, we would have been prime contenders to get both Trey Smith and Higgins. Both would be huge for our rebuilding team and young QB. We instantly would have a new Pro Bowl lineman and a WR1. Instead, we have to look elsewhere. This isn’t unusual since most great players don’t make free agency and emphasizes the need to draft and develop well.

Deebo on the Move

I think this was a win-win for both sides. The Niners get Deebo off the books and get something in return. The Commanders get a 2nd or 3rd weapon for their young stud QB. I do think Deebo is and has been overrated, however, I do think he is a major upgrade and big help for Jayden Daniels.

Stafford Staying

Matthew Stafford almost leaving seemed crazy to me. Why would he leave Sean McVay and the Rams for the Raiders or Giants, just to get a little extra money? He has made over $350 million in his career, he is set money wise. The real impact the remainder of his career could have is deciding whether or not he gets in the Hall of Fame. He is a borderline HOF right now, but a couple more quality years, a Pro Bowl or two, and maybe a Super Bowl could help him a lot.

The Raider and Giants are not the place to do that. The Rams nearly beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They are a legitimate contender in the NFC and are his best shot to solidify his legacy. I have to imagine, his side was leaking him moving in order get the Rams serious about a new contract. Regardless, it makes sense for both sides that he returns.

Jets New Look

With Aaron Rodgers and Devontae Adams being cut and Allen Lazard likely to be cut, the Jets are officially putting the Rodgers era behind them. It didn’t go well, but I do want to defend them a little.

The decision to go out and get Rodgers was a good one. It was risky, but it was still smart. The Jets had a talented, young roster and no QB. Based on the past success of Manning, Brady, and Stafford switching teams then winning a Super Bowl, it makes a lot of sense they traded for Rodgers.

The injury occurring four offensive snaps into their first season is just bad luck. This past season did not go well either and they definitely let Rodgers run the building too much like he was an NBA player. However, just because they did not handle having Rodgers on their team well, doesn’t mean the act of getting him wasn’t a smart one. And then bringing in quality veterans like Adams and Lazard that Rodgers is comfortable with was not a bad move either.

Things ultimately did not work out, but in the NFL you need to take big risks and I commend the Jets for doing so.

Thuney Traded

Initially, I think this is an awful trade for the Chiefs and great for the Bears. The Bears get Joe Thuney, an All-Pro lineman, and the Chiefs, whose biggest hole is offensive line, traded away a stud O-lineman and only got a 4th round pick in return.

The Chiefs are an extremely smart team, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt. I understand that they are saving tons of money and may feel they needed to do this to resign Trey Smith, who isn’t as good as Thuney, but is much younger. Also, there could have been some behind the scenes stuff we don’t know about, like Thuney wanting a new, big deal. For all we now, the Chiefs also have something big in the works. Only time will tell, but as of now this trade looks poor.

The Bears keep making big moves to help Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. I respect the fact they are going all out for their team and offense.

15 Minute Blitz Episode 22

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

Private Equity Updates

The PE train keeps on rolling for the NFL.

Rumors are that the 49ers and Giants will be selling 10% of their teams and both will likely break the valuation record for an NFL team set by the Eagles in December. I’m guessing they will sell to private equity firms being that they are based in areas with close proximity to PE firms.

Another team that I am guessing may take private equity money soon is the Cincinnati Bengals. Why? They have one of the “poorest” owners in the league worth only $925 million dollars and the organization is notoriously cheap. They usually do not guarantee money for contracts outside of the first year (Joe Burrow being an exception). However, they have said that they want to resign Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson to big deals.

A quick detail about NFL contracts is that all guaranteed money is paid up front or put in escrow at the time the deal is signed. When Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million extension a couple years ago, the deal included a whopping $219 million in total guarantees. That means the Bengals owner needed $219 million in cash on hand per league rules. That is about 25% of his net worth. The team had to sign away naming rights to their stadium in order to finance the deal.

If the Bengals resign all 3 of the above guys, that could be another $150 to $200 million in cash needed and about $400 million just to those three and Burrow. Forbes did rank the Brown ownership family of having $3.9 billion total, so they could likely pitch in as a whole family to pay for it. However, if that doesn’t happen then the team will probably sell a stake to a PE firm for some instant cash.

CNBC ranked the Bengals as the least valuable franchise, but they are still worth $5.25 billion. Teams also tend to sell at valuations higher than their stated value, so the Brown family could likely get about $550 million for selling a 10% stake, which would go a long way towards helping pay for the contracts and keeping the Bengals core together.

Moving forward, outside of a team building a new stadium or completing renovations, I think teams that have to pay massive contracts are the next most likely candidates to take PE money.

15 Minute Blitz Episode 21

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz

15 Minute Blitz Episode 20

https://open.spotify.com/show/7FRSwrllknwemMVvghqlRQ

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-15-minute-blitz-230527724/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/15-minute-blitz/id1775746291

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/23d6848d-e967-470e-b1f1-8996bd205feb/15-minute-blitz