We hear a lot about how much you can pay QBs and still win Super Bowls. I decided to run some analysis on Super Bowl Winning QBs and their Cap Hit % in their Super Bowl Year.
A few things to note:
- Data from 2011-2025 is via Spotrac and data from 1994-2010 is via Over The Cap (two great websites sports nerds like myself can find contract details)
- There was no Salary Cap for the 2010 season. I used the salary cap from 2009 for the Cap Hit % calculation
- For 2017 and 2000, there were 2 QBs for those teams that played significant roles in their team’s Super Bowl run. I combined the 2 QBs cap hits in both of those scenarios.
- I was surprised to find that starting in 2010, contract data could be… spotty. For Brad Johnson in 2002 and Trent Dilfer and Tony Banks in 2000, I used the average yearly salary from their contracts. It is likely not their exact Cap Hits, but for the purpose of this exercise, it is good enough.
| Season | QB | Cap Hit % |
| 2025 | Sam Darnold | 4.3% |
| 2024 | Jalen Hurts | 5.3% |
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes | 16.5% |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 17.1% |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford | 11% |
| 2020 | Tom Brady | 12.6% |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes | 2.4% |
| 2018 | Tom Brady | 12.4% |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz + Nick Foles | 4.7% |
| 2016 | Tom Brady | 8.9% |
| 2015 | Peyton Manning | 12.2% |
| 2014 | Tom Brady | 11.1% |
| 2013 | Russell Wilson | 0.6% |
| 2012 | Joe Flacco | 6.6% |
| 2011 | Eli Manning | 11.8% |
| 2010 | Aaron Rodgers | 5.1% |
| 2009 | Drew Brees | 8.4% |
| 2008 | Ben Roethlisberger | 6.9% |
| 2007 | Eli Manning | 9.2% |
| 2006 | Peyton Manning | 10.4% |
| 2005 | Ben Roethlisberger | 4.9% |
| 2004 | Tom Brady | 6.3% |
| 2003 | Tom Brady | 4.4% |
| 2002 | Brad Johnson | 7.9% |
| 2001 | Tom Brady | 0.5% |
| 2000 | Trent Dilfer + Tony Banks | 9% |
| 1999 | Kurt Warner | 1.4% |
| 1998 | John Elway | 4.9% |
| 1997 | John Elway | 5% |
| 1996 | Brett Favre | 10.2% |
| 1995 | Troy Aikman | 6.7% |
| 1994 | Steve Young | 13.1% |
| Average Cap Hit % | 7.87% | |
| Median Cap Hit % | 7.40% |
Obviously, an ideal scenario is a Superstar QB on a team friendly contract. That rarely happens. As you can see with Patrick Mahomes’ last two Super Bowls, you can pay a QB a lot and still win. However, that QB needs to be ELITE and your front office needs to draft amazingly to fill the team with cheap, young talent.
Moral of the story is don’t pay QBs massive contracts unless they are a player you think can go to the Hall of Fame. At 7.9%, Brad Johnson has the highest cap % for a Super Bowl winning QB who is not a Hall of Famer or a likely Hall of Famer (Dilfer and Banks combined to be 9%, but neither was individually above 7.9%).
Teams are better off taking a chance on a Sam Darnold type player or drafting a new QB than overpaying a Tua or Kyler type player. The Panthers and Texans should keep that in mind this offseason.
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