Will the Big 10 and SEC Break Away from the FBS?

With the CFP results being underwhelming for the SEC, I wonder if this could start a chain of events that leads to the Big 10 and SEC breaking off from the rest of the country when it comes to competing for the national championship.

The SEC and BIG 10 are getting very little value from the other teams and conferences, whereas, the other conferences get insane value. Each conference gets a team in the playoff – even if they don’t deserve to make it – and weaker conferences like the ACC can have multiple teams. This all comes at the expense of the SEC and Big 10 not getting more teams in the playoff, which means less home playoff games, revenue, exposure, and more.

It is tough to compare teams from the SEC and Big 10 to other teams in the country, since there are way more good teams in the two big conferences and thus each team plays a much harder conference schedule. This means some teams that get in from other conferences will probably continue to be worse than SEC and Big 10 teams that don’t get in. This eventually could lead to the two big conferences getting fed up and wanting out.

I think there are four other schools that benefit the SEC and Big 10 due to their brand, success, following, etc: Notre Dame, Clemson, FSU, and Miami. What if the SEC scooped up FSU, Clemson, Miami, and one other team like UNC to make a 20 team conference? And then the Big 10 could make a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame and take on one more team to have 20 teams in/associated with the conference. In this scenario, the two conferences could form an ultra competitive 12 or 14 team CFP without help from any other conferences.

Imagine if rather than SMU, Boise State, and Arizona State, the teams playing were Alabama, Miami, and South Carolina. That would be a much better CFP.

I am not saying this should happen or will happen, but I think it is something to keep an eye on.

Any change will be gradual. As of now, the likely next step is 14 teams in 2026. I’m sure if/when that happens, the SEC and Big 10 will make demands on how many of their teams are guaranteed a spot and how the seeding is determined. If the other conferences don’t give in, that could lead to the break described above.